IRAN - USA : AUCUN ACCORD ? MAIS.. LE MARCHÉ MONTE !

The conflict between Iran and the United States appears to be at a stalemate, yet markets continue to rise. There are minor divergences in indices, which will be discussed, along with updates on gold, the euro-dollar, and oil. Before diving into the analysis, access to the VIP Discord is available for sharing and discussing analyses, along with mentorship. These resources are free and can be accessed via the first link in the pinned comment. To gain access, users must register on Primex BT through a partner link and make a minimum deposit of $500, which serves as trading capital. After registration and deposit, users click to obtain VIP access, provide their email and Premix BT ID, and activate their access. If all steps are completed correctly, the Discord link will appear, and users will receive mentorship access via email. Primex BT is a broker that allows trading of Forex, indices, and commodities using crypto collateral. Focusing on the Nasdaq, a divergence with the Dow is noted. As long as the Dow has not reached an All-Time High (ATH), the bullish bias remains. The expectation is for the Dow to deliver an ATH within this financial quarter. The divergence is visible over the past few days, with the Dow Jones forming lower highs while the Nasdaq and SP500 are creating ascending troughs and peaks. This is not dramatic but could signal a coming dip, potentially revisiting last week's low on the Dow Jones and the weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) that formed. Such a dip could also affect the Nasdaq and SP500 before the ATH is delivered. Assuming this is a break gap, the FVG remains open, and a dip below last week's low could precede a bullish continuation. An alert will be set on the Dow, with the expectation of tagging below 4936 points this week to form a bullish continuation, given the remaining daily FVG. This zone is considered key for a bullish continuation. The wide weekly FVG is also noted as an important area. If the market enters this zone, it is seen as an interesting area for continuation to reclaim the next Bid Liquidity at 165 points. While the Dow is analyzed, it won't necessarily be traded, but it provides insight into potential market movements. Moving to the Nasdaq and SP500, last week's low is observed. If the Nasdaq and SP500 are stronger than the Dow, they might not revisit last week's low. However, if they do, the zone is considered very interesting due to a confluence of factors: the 3-day FVG, the daily FVG zone, last week's low, and the weekly FVG, along with a break gap and another FVG. If these levels are tested, it would be a good point for continuation. An alert will be set for this area. Otherwise, the formation of a FVG will be observed for continuation, which could allow the diverging Dow to recover its weekly low. The overall sentiment remains bullish. Personally, the extension zones of 1618-200% are being monitored, possibly with AB=CD objectives, though 32300 points seems very high. These extension zones are considered realistic. Regarding retracement, the first stop on the current movement has been retraced. In the event of a deep dip, the 382 level is seen as the maximum dip window, falling within the FVG zones. As the market climbs, the first stop also rises, presenting interesting dip opportunities if market stress events, like a conflict resuming or a temporary ceasefire, occur. Such events could lead to a "reset" of leverage before a theoretical continuation upward. On an hourly timeframe, today's Point of Interest (POI) is the low since the futures reopened, below 27339 within the FVG zone. This zone is being watched for a potential continuation on the indices, unless this zone is broken. A break could lead to speculation on the low of the last bullish day, which is Friday's low below 27000 points. The overall idea is a bullish continuation unless there are signs of reversal, which are currently absent. For the SP500, the situation is similar: liquidity capture and continuation. A return to the identified zone is still possible if a dip occurs. The same zones are monitored: the low since market reopening and potentially Friday's low. The last bullish candle's low would be a good dip zone for continuation. Liquidity has already been purged, so the current low is considered protected unless the market returns below last week's low. If not, the current POI in the discount zone would be very interesting. A return to the discount zone to purge the daily low of the last bullish candle would be a very interesting POI for continuation. Oil continues to work within its FVG zone from the previous descending high. No new signs of a rally are present. The market is seen as being in a range. As long as the conflict persists, it will range. If the conflict escalates, it could break north. If a resolution is reached, the expectation is a return to normal and reintegration into the initial range between $75 and $40. Assuming it remains a range, a break of the FVG would likely lead to a retest above $102, depending on market stress. Currently, stress is not evident, with the VIX showing a bearish dynamic and having filled a good portion of the previous FVG, aiming lower. This indicates a healthy situation for risk assets, as even a rebounding oil price is not stressing the market, suggesting range-bound price action for oil. For the dollar, the 12-hour FVG has been filled and is currently being rejected. The market appears to be in a consolidation phase, awaiting a response regarding a more significant retracement. This will likely be determined by interest rates. With no new changes and a 32% probability of rate cuts this year, the dollar's peak is likely in. An increase in rate cut probabilities would be encouraging. Powell's speech on April 29th (Wednesday) is anticipated, along with important market data on Thursday, particularly GDP and PCE, which will significantly influence rate hike/cut probabilities and impact the dollar. The current view is that the dollar has peaked, is in a long-term range, was rejected at the top of the range, and is now consolidating at the midrange. The question is whether the weekly FVG will be broken. If so, the target would be a return to the bottom of the range in the coming weeks and months. Finally, for gold, there isn't much of interest. POIs are accumulating to the north. However, taking out last week's low, Friday's low, or even the low from two weeks ago (April 13th) could be an interesting stop hunt zone for further upward movement and to work the FVG given the accumulated highs. A reversal in price structure is needed, for example, forming a low on the previous weekly low and then attacking north to continue working the weekly FVG. For now, the hourly structure remains bearish, suggesting a move towards last week's low. A good reaction there could lead to speculation on a push towards the two weekly highs left behind.