ALTCOINS : LE SIGNAL EST TOUT PROCHE NE LE RATE PAS !! 🚀

The video discusses the current state of the altcoin market, analyzing key technical and fundamental indicators. A significant point of discussion is the ongoing ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran, and its potential impact on the market. The speaker emphasizes the importance of observing whether a definitive agreement is reached. A core focus is the Coin 50 index, an indicator recommended for monitoring, particularly by institutional investors seeking exposure to the crypto market without directly picking individual assets. This index is currently in a consolidation phase, mirroring a similar period from November to January. The speaker highlights that to validate a breakout from this range to the upside, the index needs to reach the resistance zone around $295-$300. A successful breakout could lead to a retracement towards the fair value gap between $319 and $360. However, the speaker cautions against interpreting this as a bull run or "altcoin season" due to two critical factors. The first and most important factor is the strength of altcoins relative to Bitcoin. Currently, the market is described as "arbitrarily" moving, meaning that when Bitcoin rises, altcoins tend to rise less, and when Bitcoin falls, altcoins fall with it, but not necessarily more than Bitcoin. This behavior indicates a lack of sufficient capital flowing into the market to simultaneously fuel significant gains in both Bitcoin and altcoins. The market, at present, seems to choose between supporting altcoins or Bitcoin, not both. This dynamic is presented as a reliable indicator to watch. The second factor, not explicitly detailed but implied through the discussion of market conditions, relates to the overall market sentiment and liquidity. The speaker then pivots to discuss the impression of stablecoins as a proxy for money entering or exiting the market. A decrease in stablecoin reserves, such as USDT and USDC, suggests money is leaving the crypto space. The speaker notes a shift from USDT to USDC due to regulatory concerns in Europe, particularly with MiCA regulations coming into effect. By analyzing the combined market cap of USDT and USDC, the speaker observes periods of money outflow, citing a drop between March 18th and April 1st. The speaker contrasts the current situation with 2025, where despite a significant increase in stablecoin supply ($80 billion printed), altcoins ended the year in the red. This suggests that the money entering the market was primarily absorbed by Bitcoin or other assets, or there was a substantial distribution. The speaker argues that for a true altcoin season, a large influx of new capital is required to absorb the existing "bagholders" – individuals who bought at higher prices and are waiting to sell. The video then delves into specific technical levels. For Bitcoin, a potential target is identified between $76,000 and $80,000-$88,000, with a CME gap between $79,000 and $84,000 also noted as a potential target if a bullish signal is validated. On the Coin 50 index, a target of $306 is mentioned, with the possibility of retesting previous bearish impulses. For the Oders index, a key area for short reloads is identified between $203 billion and $217 billion, suggesting that a return to these levels would represent a 13-20% increase, not a "crazy rise." The concept of VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is introduced as a tool to gauge when investors reach "break-even" on their altcoin holdings. The speaker explains that when assets approach break-even, significant selling pressure can emerge from trapped investors looking to exit their positions. The current situation is described as one where many investors are at a substantial loss (around 40% on average for altcoins), and a return to break-even levels might not be enough to entice selling, as holders often seek much larger returns. The example of Cardano is used to illustrate how even reaching break-even zones might not lead to significant selling if the majority of holders are still underwater and waiting for substantial gains. The speaker also touches upon market makers and their role in liquidity and price manipulation. They explain that market makers often use algorithms to buy and sell within order books, creating a perception of movement. However, without genuine demand, these manipulated rallies are unsustainable, leading to rapid downturns. Finally, the speaker emphasizes that Bitcoin is the primary asset, and altcoins are derivatives of it. Altcoins are inherently more volatile, and adding leverage to them amplifies this risk significantly. The probability of liquidation is much higher when using leverage on altcoins compared to Bitcoin. The video concludes by reiterating that the current signals are not yet validated, and geopolitical developments, particularly a definitive accord between the US and Iran, could inject more momentum into the market. The speaker advises caution against entering the market with excessive leverage, highlighting the high probability of liquidation.