Lockdowns Are BACK and They Want Your Bitcoin

The speaker discusses the current market conditions, particularly focusing on Bitcoin and the S&P 500, drawing parallels to past price action and identifying key levels for potential trades. **Bitcoin and Market Patterns:** The speaker highlights a repeating pattern observed in Bitcoin's price action, comparing the current market to a previous consolidation phase. The pattern involves trading above the range high, then fading back within, which historically has led to significant price drops. The speaker emphasizes that a repeat of this pattern would mean new lows for Bitcoin and would invalidate the optimistic views of those claiming "this time is different." A key trading concept discussed is the "optimal area" for bears to exert downward pressure. This area is identified by an order block or breaker, a weekly swing failure pattern (SFP) where price trades above a swing high and closes below it, and a subsequent structure break. The speaker illustrates this with a chart, showing how this setup has historically led to price declines. The speaker notes that this pattern is a "carbon copy" of previous market movements. To avoid a bearish scenario, bulls need to reclaim the "range high." The speaker has consistently pointed out this level across various charts, including NVIDIA, the Dow Jones, and the S&P 500, where similar setups led to shorting opportunities. The speaker stresses that when a clear level of resistance is established, and price trades above it only to fall back below, it presents an "easy setup" for bears. The ball is currently in the bulls' court to reclaim these levels, specifically mentioning 71.5k, 71.7k, or ideally 72k for Bitcoin. However, even if Bitcoin reclaims 72k, the speaker's long-term expectation is for a rally into the 80s, possibly reaching 280k, followed by another significant downturn. The speaker reiterates the importance of a trendline break, which if lost, would signal a continuation of the bearish trend, potentially leading to prices below 60k. The speaker is personally not in an active Bitcoin trade but would have been short from a specific level if they were. **S&P 500 and Broader Market:** The S&P 500 is also analyzed, with the speaker noting its aggressive downtrend. To see a relief pop, the S&P 500 needs to break this downtrend structure. The speaker expresses a desire for a bounce in the S&P 500, as this could positively impact Bitcoin. The speaker's overarching macro thesis suggests a further leg lower in equities and Bitcoin this year, with a potential bottom forming in late 2024. The speaker believes that levels around 60k down to 40k for Bitcoin represent good long-term value. **Trading Philosophy and Market Conditions:** The speaker advocates for patience, especially in the current market conditions, which are described as "headline driven" and lacking significant movement for extended periods. The speaker is in the camp of holding cash and believes that better buying opportunities will arise later in the year. Forcing trades in the current environment is discouraged, as it can lead to losses. The speaker emphasizes trading "A plus opportunities" and waiting for the market to come to them. The speaker also touches on the psychology of trading, noting that many newcomers confuse their success during a bull market with genuine trading skill. They highlight the importance of experience in navigating bear markets. The speaker admits to making mistakes and not getting everything right, but stresses the importance of objectively looking at the chart rather than being influenced by external biases. **Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL):** Ethereum's chart is presented as looking very similar to Bitcoin's, with the speaker hoping for a bearish retest in a premium area to initiate a short position. However, the price action has been weak, with ETH failing to retrace to ideal levels. Solana is also described as the "weaker of the bunch," having failed to hold its range breakout, mirroring Bitcoin and Ethereum's struggles. Key levels for ETH are above 21.50, and for SOL, above 90. **Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Concerns:** The speaker delves into broader geopolitical and macroeconomic themes, including potential lockdowns due to an energy crisis, drawing parallels to COVID-19 protocols. The speaker expresses skepticism about government narratives and suggests that such events are often used to consolidate power and control. The discussion touches on potential impacts of the Middle East conflict on oil prices and the broader market. **News and Developments:** * **Tokenized Securities:** The NYSE partnering with Securitize to develop a 24/7 tokenized securities platform is seen as a positive development for the crypto space, indicating an acceleration of Wall Street's tokenization trend. This could also be seen as competition for platforms like Hyperliquid. * **Energy Crisis and Lockdowns:** Concerns are raised about potential energy-related lockdowns, mirroring COVID-19 measures, and the potential for societal disruption. * **Polymarket Valuation:** A report valuing Polymarket at a base case of $24 billion and a bull case of $111 billion by 2028 is mentioned, highlighting the growth of prediction markets. * **Breakout Prop Terminal:** The speaker promotes the new trading terminal from Breakout Prop, emphasizing its improvements in speed and functionality. * **NATO Exchange:** The speaker highlights NATO, a perpetual DEX, as a platform for trading, including oil, and earning INK tokens through trading volume. * **SpaceX IPO Rumors:** Speculation about SpaceX's potential IPO at a trillion-dollar valuation is discussed, with the speaker having invested through an SPV. * **NCAA Tournament Bets:** The speaker shares a bet on Purdue to win the NCAA tournament, highlighting the odds and the trending direction of the bet. * **US-Iran Conflict and Oil Prices:** The possibility of US forces entering Iran is discussed, with a prediction market showing a higher chance of boots on the ground by the end of April. This is linked to potential oil price surges to $140-$150. * **Crypto-Backed Mortgages:** The trend of Fannie Mae accepting crypto-backed mortgages is viewed with mixed feelings. While it signifies crypto adoption, it also raises concerns about people's inability to afford houses and the potential for tapping into people's savings. The speaker personally would not use crypto as collateral for a mortgage. * **Other Assets:** The speaker briefly touches on the US dollar, suggesting it's in a multi-year range and could see a significant move up, which would align with a broader sell-off in risk assets. Gold is also mentioned, with the possibility of one more upward leg. **Overall Sentiment:** The speaker maintains a cautious and bearish outlook for the short to medium term, emphasizing the repeating bearish patterns and the need for bulls to defend key levels. However, the speaker also holds a long-term bullish conviction in crypto and believes that significant buying opportunities will emerge. The advice is to be patient, trade objectively, and avoid forcing trades in uncertain market conditions.