Three Oscar Plays (Polymarket + Kiyotaka)

This video explores how to identify "insider" signals on Polymarket using the "fiveminute alpha" tool (also referred to as Kyotaka) to predict upcoming Oscar winners. The speaker argues that order books in prediction markets are uniquely honest because traders are unlikely to place large bids or offers without high conviction. By analyzing order depth and volume deltas, traders can spot where "smart money" is moving before the ceremony. The first prediction focuses on Sean Penn for Best Supporting Actor. The speaker highlights massive volume delta buys occurring just before the current period, combined with a shift toward bullish order depth. With approximately $8,000 in bids currently sitting on the "yes" side, the market signals a high level of confidence that Penn will take the award. The second signal identifies Michael B. Jordan as the likely winner for Best Actor. The analysis reveals tens of thousands of dollars in order depth waiting to be filled. The speaker interprets this massive financial interest as a sign that insiders are backing Jordan over other contenders like Timothy Chalamet. The sheer volume of orders on Jordan’s side makes this a high-confidence pick according to the market data. The third and most speculative prediction is for Best Picture, where the film *Sinners* is identified as a strong contender. Although the speaker acknowledges this is a riskier bet, the data shows a significant bid-ask difference of $45,000 and high volume delta market buying. While the category appears to be a contest between *Sinners* and *One Battle After Another*, the intense bidding activity near the current price suggests *Sinners* has a better chance than the market currently reflects. Beyond simply betting on winners, the speaker suggests a volatility-based trading strategy: buying into these positions now and selling them when the market goes "wild" on Oscar night as probabilities shift. Ultimately, the speaker emphasizes that order depth serves as a powerful signal of the financial weight behind specific market outcomes, providing a more transparent view of potential results than traditional speculation.