ALERTE BITCOIN ! 🚨 PIÈGE AVANT LA PROCHAINE HAUSSE ?

The speaker begins by discussing a Bitcoin rebound, noting it might be a temporary bounce before further declines. They plan to cover Bitcoin, Nasdaq, the observed divergence between them, the dollar, and oil. Before diving into the analysis, they remind viewers about free access to Wix VIP, code reports, and mentorship, accessible via a partner link and registration on the platform. The process involves signing up, filling out a form, joining a Discord server, and using a specific command to link the Wix account, which then unlocks various VIP channels including "Market Review" for institutional reports. Regarding Bitcoin (BTC), a rebound was observed the previous day, recovering Sunday's peak. However, it's currently facing rejection at that level. A bearish retest is evident, and if the current price zone is broken, it could indicate a move to retest previous lows and potentially target stops below $73,259. The speaker emphasizes that this area could be a perfect zone for bearish continuation if the market intends to clear liquidity below that low. A key observation is the growing decorrelation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq. While they both rose together previously, Bitcoin is now showing signs of divergence. The speaker’s indicator suggests Bitcoin is underperforming the Nasdaq, implying its rebound might be over, leading to a minor bearish movement. If the current price zone is broken, it could lead to testing two lower lows. The critical point to watch is whether the last trough is broken, which could bring Bitcoin back to the $70,500 area, where un-cleared lows and a weekly fair value gap exist. This area is also noted for a CME gap, which could be filled to facilitate a continuation. The discussion highlights that the overall market trend since recent liquidity grabs remains bullish, with a breaker block delivering a peak. A retracement into a specific gap zone is possible, forming a higher low to continue upward. The speaker also mentions options market data for May 29, showing significant open interest around $80,000, $82,000, and $84,000, indicating a bullish bias for this expiration. This suggests that a return to these higher price zones is a possibility, although significant retracements would be required to reach them. Bitcoin's momentum is not strong, and previous peak recoveries have triggered retracements. If this pattern repeats, a move to recover the lows around $70,300 is plausible. Confirmation would come from a break of the last trough, signaling a market structure shift and potential retracement. The H4 fair value gap is currently showing rejection, which could lead to a test of stops at $73,200. If the price settles below this level, it would confirm a structure inversion, potentially leading to a stop hunt in an area ideal for a continuation. The speaker advises buyers to take profits at current peaks, as these are significant resistance zones. While theoretical bullish continuation could target the $80,000 range where options traders are speculating, a cleanup might occur first. The current price action, with a stop hunt and rejection from the H4 fair value gap, suggests a potential move to retest lower lows. Shifting to a broader market overview, the dollar has tested its March low and is expected to consolidate. The dollar's weakness benefited Bitcoin and risk assets, so its consolidation could trigger a similar consolidation in risk assets, including US indices and Bitcoin. For indices, the speaker is watching last week's peak, anticipating a potential grab of this peak before a return to daily lows, fitting a consolidation, manipulation, and expansion pattern. This would support Bitcoin's potential bearish movement. The SP500 and Nasdaq have filled their gaps. However, the Dow Jones has not yet made an all-time high (ATH). The speaker speculates that the Dow Jones might reach its ATH before the Nasdaq and SP500 retrace, noting it's 2.4% away. An ATH on the Dow Jones could then precede a retracement in the indices, as movements are currently very extended. A healthy retracement could target previous swing highs within fair value gaps, possibly around the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which would be a healthy correction within an ongoing bullish trend. Regarding oil, a rebound occurred after clearing sell-side liquidity. Geopolitical factors, such as Iran's renegotiation stance, continue to influence prices. The speaker expects oil to fill its gap, which could signal a bullish continuation if it's in a re-accumulation phase. Such a move in oil could indicate potential retracements in US indices. The formation of a breaker pattern in oil would be a significant bullish signal, suggesting caution for US indices and Bitcoin due to the pressure a bullish oil market can exert on risk assets. Finally, Ethereum (ETH) is discussed. It shows an immediate imbalance in the last bullish candle, suggesting a potential retest of last week's low around $2,174. The current price action is within a large fair value gap, which might continue to be worked on, potentially leading to a test of last week's low. Ethereum is also near major objectives, with the rupture of a weekly fair value gap being a positive sign, indicating less likelihood of retesting that large gap. For the second quarter, the speaker outlines two main hypotheses for both Ethereum and Bitcoin, which have similar gaps. The primary hypothesis is a continuation of the bullish trend, aiming to fill a specific gap. This is not necessarily a "bull run" but rather a retracement to clear parts of the previous bearish movement. This gap is likely to be filled during the second quarter. The alternative hypothesis is a bearish second quarter, where the initial liquidity grab marks the start of a bearish continuation. The speaker emphasizes that these are just hypotheses, as they don't have a crystal ball. The speaker shares their current trading strategy: they hold a short position with a stop-profit, targeting lower take-profit levels. Their goal is to find new, high-probability long entries. Specifically, they are interested in going long below $70,300, within the CME gap, to play a continuation and fill a large gap on futures. While not expecting a definitive bottom, they believe these price zones could be worked before further bearish continuations. The current short position is secured with profits taken and a stop-profit set. If the market continues to decline, additional take-profit levels are in place, aiming to close the position at 85-90% profit. This would allow them to then enter long positions in the target zone to play the continuation towards $80,000, which aligns with their Q2 bias. They conclude by encouraging viewers to like, subscribe, and comment, reminding them about the free access links in the description, which include institutional reports detailing market positioning and institutional flow analysis.