Free Arbitrage Tools for Prediction Markets

This video introduces two platforms, Matcher and Prediction Hunt, that can be used to easily find arbitrage opportunities across prediction markets like Poly Market and Kalshi, as well as other platforms. Both tools are currently free to use, and Prediction Hunt offers a free API key for bot trading. While Kalshi is US-only, Prediction Hunt supports many other platforms that can be used for arbitrage globally. The speaker suggests that Prediction Hunt is more sophisticated and has a better API. Both platforms present opportunities that are essentially "free money," though users need to factor in fees, which the platforms attempt to account for. Filters can be applied to set a minimum desired profit, such as $100 or $1,000. It's important to note that while some opportunities might appear to be for distant future events, arbitrage prices are expected to converge as markets become more efficient. Matcher is described as less sophisticated but also offers good arbitrage opportunities. A crucial point highlighted is the need to carefully read the rules, especially regarding expiration dates, as discrepancies can invalidate an apparent arbitrage. An example given is a "James Bond actor" market where the Poly Market option closes much sooner than the Kalshi one, making it not a real arbitrage. Beyond strict arbitrage, these platforms can also help identify "plus EV" (positive expected value) bets. For instance, if Poly Market is trading cheaper than Kalshi for the same outcome, it represents a positive expected value bet. Users are advised to always check the rules for expirations and other specific conditions. Prediction Hunt allows sorting by event date, which is useful for finding opportunities expiring soon. While real-time alerts are best obtained through an API key, the platform's sorting features help identify timely arbitrages. The speaker emphasizes that cryptocurrency arbitrage is often perceived as difficult, but these prediction market arbitrages can be surprisingly easy and offer significant potential. An example of a good arbitrage is shown between Poly Market and Kalshi for a Michigan Democratic Senate nominee, where buying "yes" at 5% and "no" at 90.5% presents a strong opportunity, assuming no underlying rule conflicts. The video concludes by encouraging viewers to explore these tools for making extra income, automating trades with bots, or even pursuing arbitrage full-time. For those unable to use Kalshi, other platforms like Poly Market, Opinion, and PredictIt offer similar opportunities.