URGENT TAO BITTENSOR 🚨 LA FIN DU PROJET !? (J'ai short)

The video discusses a significant price drop in TAO following a critical statement from a member of Covenant AI, a major player in the Bittensor network. This individual publicly denounced the supposed decentralization of TAO, claiming it's controlled by a single entity. This revelation caused TAO's price to plummet by 20% in a few hours, prompting an analysis of whether this marks the beginning of the end for TAO or a potential reset. The speaker begins by offering a technical analysis of TAO's price action. They suggest that the previous price levels were already indicative of a potential top. TAO, according to the speaker, often creates obvious stop loss zones, drawing in buyers through FOMO, and then proceeds to fill fair value gaps before reversing. This pattern was observed in previous upward movements. The speaker personally shorted TAO, not at the very peak, but based on their trading model. They explain their trading strategy involving securing profits and re-entering trades, noting their surprise at the rapid TP (Take Profit) achievement on their recent trade. The core of the news stems from Covenant AI's announcement. They trained a large language model (LLM) with 72 billion parameters, which they ran on Bittensor. However, they expressed strong discontent, calling the project a "big charade" and asserting that it is not truly decentralized, but rather controlled by one person. This has led to speculation about TAO's future. The speaker offers a personal perspective, labeling TAO as a "bubble" or a "hollow shell," not because of its technology, but due to its minimal revenue generation relative to its multi-billion dollar valuation. Despite the low revenue from subnets, the narrative surrounding TAO is strong, which is crucial in an AI-driven market where selling a dream is paramount. This is why the speaker believes TAO could experience another bubble in the future. Regarding the current price action, the speaker believes TAO is not dying but was already in a reversal zone. Indicators like weekly and daily Bollinger Bands, and the filling of weekly fair value gaps (FVGs), signal high probability reversal points. The bad news acted as fuel for an accelerated bearish movement, but a downturn was likely even without it. The speaker dismisses the idea of TAO being finished unless all its subnets collapse or a more transparent competitor emerges and captures market share. They draw a parallel to the AI market with companies like Anthropic gaining ground on OpenAI. However, they note that there isn't a direct competitor in the crypto space that is outperforming TAO and gaining trust. These challenges are seen as long-term tests that will shape the project. For those looking to invest, the speaker advises buying in the lower range, specifically between $180 and $30 for the long term. For short-term opportunities, they highlight the weekly fair value gap, which they believe will be retested, similar to previous gaps TAO has filled. More attractive spot buying zones are identified between $240 and $194, and even lower. The speaker personally would not invest above $240. They also suggest a re-accumulation zone between $233 and $192 within a fair value gap. The current fundamental situation is compared to a failed partnership, which, while causing panic and a sharp price decline due to existing buying pressure and recent FOMO, is not the end of the world for a large company. The imbalance between supply and demand is explained as a common reaction to good or bad news. The speaker points out signs of market maker manipulation, noting the spike in open interest and funding rates, suggesting the market maker bought on the spot market while shorting derivatives to manage price movement. This indicates the market maker's position was likely closed. The speaker observes the formation of a bearish structure and suggests looking at Fibonacci levels, specifically the 0.382 retracement. A break below this level could lead to returns to the re-accumulation zones of $233 to $193. From a long-term perspective, the speaker views TAO's current phase as a potential re-accumulation pattern. They believe a final dip or "nudge" below current levels might occur to collect more volume for large players. Holes in the volume profile are seen as areas where significant accumulation could happen. The speaker notes that investors are concentrated around the $350-$330 price range, making further upward pushes by market makers risky as they would face sellers with gains. Panic selling is expected below support levels, which can create buying opportunities. A particularly suspicious observation is the absence of a stop hunt below the $140 mark. The speaker suggests this might be intentional, creating an environment where people are encouraged to place stops, only for the market to potentially reverse and buy back at lower prices. This area, between $125 and $99, is identified as a potential capitulation zone where panic buying could occur. The speaker reiterates their lack of long-term belief in TAO based on its financials, but acknowledges its strong narrative and potential for a future bubble. They believe a pattern of re-accumulation is forming and that a final panic low below $140 is possible. They have personally entered trades based on their model, anticipating a revisit of these lower zones, with multiple take-profit targets. The speaker also compares TAO's performance to Bitcoin, noting that TAO has been underperforming BTC since entering its weekly fair value gap. This suggests a shift in momentum. They question if there's any fundamental news that justifies TAO's drop from $534 to $140, concluding that while there was a recent "good news" (referring to the negative news as a catalyst for price action), it doesn't fundamentally alter the long-term trajectory. The core message is that TAO's current situation, despite the negative news, could present an opportunity. The speaker admits they don't believe in TAO long-term due to its weak financial performance but sees potential for a future bubble. They emphasize the importance of investing before such a bubble forms to profit from later buyers. The current price levels are not seen as advantageous, as many investors have already bought in. The speaker highlights that areas with less trading volume are more interesting for potential investment, as fewer people have had the opportunity to buy there. The speaker concludes by offering advice on risk management, emphasizing that their trades are secured with stop losses at break-even once targets are hit. They encourage viewers to like, subscribe, and comment, and remind them of the links in the description for accessing their methodology and training.