MicroStrategy Selling Bitcoin? Here's What Happens Next

The speaker, Maine, provides an update on Bitcoin price action, market outlook, and discusses various news topics including a new virus, the S&P 500's record highs, and government UFO confirmations. Regarding Bitcoin price action, Maine references previous bullish predictions, specifically a pullback into a demand area that served as support. A key factor in confirming a long signal was a "sweep" within a 12-hour order block, a high-time frame setup that allows for tighter risk management. This setup, detailed in episode three of his series, allows traders to place stops below the liquidity sweep rather than the entire order block, improving risk-to-reward ratios. The trade proved successful, leading to profit taking as Bitcoin approached high-time frame resistance. Maine emphasizes the importance of switching between time frames to avoid getting "lost in the sauce" on lower time frames and to be aware of high-time frame resistance areas, such as weekly fair value gaps. Bitcoin is currently in such an area, suggesting potential resistance or a lower high if a new leg lower is to occur. Maine maintains two primary high-time frame scenarios for Bitcoin. The first, tracked for many months, suggests the low is not yet in, with a potential new low and bottom in late Q3 or early Q4 of this year, followed by a rally into 2027. The second scenario, gaining more validity, posits that the bottom is already in, and the market will experience time-based consolidation rather than a new low. However, Maine notes that a straight shot to 100k from current levels is unlikely from a timing perspective, as a yearly cycle low is still due in late Q3/early Q4 to align with the four-year cycle. This low doesn't necessarily have to be a lower price low but could be time-based consolidation. Regardless, accumulation is needed for Bitcoin to reach new highs, which typically occurs in downtrends followed by sideways movement, or simply sideways action. Maine plans to deploy the remainder of his capital into spot Bitcoin and other coins during this Q4 low. He highlights that the market is several months into a year-long bear market, and the bottom, from a time-based perspective, is only four to six months away, which is exciting. In the short term, while Bitcoin is nearing resistance, Maine clarifies that he won't blindly short. Instead, he looks for specific setups, like weakness, a sweep of a high, and a breakdown, as triggers for shorting. Conversely, if the price continues to grind higher without showing weakness, he won't short. The next significant support area is identified around last year's low of approximately $74,450. If Bitcoin holds above this level, it would indicate continued bullishness and potentially lead to significantly higher highs, possibly into the $80,000s or $90,000s, though this would still be considered a lower high within the broader downtrend. A break below last year's low would signal potential bearishness. Maine then shifts to broader market concerns, specifically the "hanta virus," which he dubs "COVID 2.0." While less transmissible than COVID, it has a significantly higher mortality rate (around 30%). He questions if this could be the "black swan" event that pops the current AI stock bubble. The S&P 500 recently closed at over 7,400, an all-time high, driven by a few tech giants like Nvidia. The S&P 500 added $10 trillion in the last 29 days, with semiconductors and AI stocks surging 100% in weeks. Maine finds this unsustainable and indicative of a "blow-off top" phase. He suggests remaining long until proven wrong but acknowledges the "air is getting a little thin up here." He notes the disparity between the S&P at 7,400 and Bitcoin at 84,000, which could support the idea of Bitcoin having already bottomed in a time-based manner. Maine encourages traders not to limit themselves to crypto, especially given the volatility in other markets like single-name stocks and indices. He emphasizes that his price action trading strategies (order blocks, breakers, support/resistance, supply/demand, SFPs) are universally applicable across all asset classes and time frames. He cites Intel's recent surge, which followed a weekly order block and SFP setup, as an example of these strategies working outside crypto. As a trader, one's job is to seek volatility, which has recently been more prevalent in other markets. He concludes the Bitcoin discussion by reiterating confidence in his long positions with a clear invalidation level below last year's low. He acknowledges the high-time frame downtrend and the possibility of a lower high, with potential macro "black swans" like the hanta virus or alien revelations adding uncertainty. He notes his successful Bitcoin trades this year, with a high accuracy rate. Maine then thanks sponsors, NATO and Kraken, and promotes his social media channels, website (tradermain.com), free Telegram, Discord, and his "Whiteboard Series" videos, which are released weekly and demonstrate his trading concepts across various markets. He delves into PolyMarket bets, expressing annoyance over his LeBron James Lakers bet against the Oklahoma City Thunder, despite LeBron's performance. He criticizes OKC's "foul baiting" and "flopping." He also discusses his FIFA World Cup bets, particularly on Argentina, highlighting the dynamic nature of PolyMarket lines that change with real-world events, allowing for profitable trades even if a team doesn't win the entire tournament. Regarding GameStop potentially acquiring eBay, Maine humorously recalls the GameStop CEO's "half cash, half stock" interview, which led to the CEO being banned from eBay. The "hanta virus pandemic" market on PolyMarket is discussed, with the "yes" option currently at 10%. Maine notes the potential for profit even if a pandemic doesn't materialize, as increased news and fear could drive the market price higher. He plans to research the virus further. A significant PolyMarket event involved Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy potentially selling Bitcoin. Maine highlights that the "yes" market for MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin by year-end surged from 11% to 82% (an 8x return) after Saylor tweeted about the possibility, even though no sale has occurred yet. This exemplifies the power of PolyMarket in reacting to news. Maine then discusses an interview with Jeff Walton, Chief Risk Officer at Strive, which clarified MicroStrategy's model. Saylor's strategy involves buying Bitcoin with credit, selling appreciated Bitcoin to pay dividends, and then buying more Bitcoin. While Coffeezilla initially likened this to a Ponzi scheme, Walton used an insurance company analogy, explaining that insurance companies also collect premiums (assets) and pay claims from their balance sheet. Walton argued that MicroStrategy's balance sheet only needs to grow 5.5% annually to cover dividends, which is conservative given Bitcoin's historical 30-35% annual growth rate and its scarcity in an inflationary environment. The model relies on Bitcoin maintaining its upward trajectory. Maine notes the concern that Saylor's average Bitcoin price is high (around $72-73k), but the "machine can keep turning so long as the number keeps going up." He also points out how his technical analysis on MicroStrategy's chart, drawn months ago, correctly identified a monthly order block as a demand area, leading to a significant bounce. Finally, Maine touches on the S&P 500's trajectory, admitting he doesn't know when the current rally will end. He has reduced risk and moved to cash, finding it hard to see long-term value at current elevated prices, despite his brother's taunts about missing further gains. He ponders if the S&P could reach 8,000 soon. The discussion concludes with the "alien stuff." The government has released UFO (unidentified flying object/aerial phenomena) videos and pictures. Maine questions the likelihood of them outright confirming alien existence by May 31st, noting the PolyMarket for this is still very low (30x payout for "yes"). He finds it hard to believe there isn't life out there but speculates that if technologically advanced aliens could reach Earth, they would view humanity as insignificant. He mentions newly released FBI files describing 4-foot beings in spacesuits near UFOs. Maine apologizes for the quality of the ad hoc stream due to travel and thanks viewers and sponsors, encouraging them to use his PolyMarket link for "gambling, speculating on some of the world ending [ __ ] that seems to be happening every single day."