
URGENT BITCOIIN ๐จ CETTE NEWS EST DANGEREUSE AUJOURD'HUI !
Audio Summary
AI Summary
The video discusses the significant impact of upcoming inflation figures (CPI) on the markets, particularly Bitcoin, the dollar, and indices. It highlights that Bitcoin experienced a stop hunt before the data release.
The speaker mentions a partnership with "Wix," offering free access to VIP services and a comprehensive trading mentorship program that explains their strategy in detail. Access is granted through a specific partner link, followed by filling out a form to retrieve access credentials. This process links the Wix account to Discord, enabling access to exclusive crypto VIP analyses and the "market review rapport code," which tracks institutional trading activity, such as increases in short or long positions.
Regarding Bitcoin, the core news is the inflation data. The market anticipates a CPI of 3.4%, with an expected rise attributed to the surge in oil prices from $60 to over $120, currently trading around $97. Higher-than-expected inflation would be negative for risk assets, indicating a stronger-than-anticipated price increase. Conversely, inflation significantly below 3.4% would suggest the market overestimated the impact of oil prices and inflation on the economy, which would be encouraging for interest rate cuts.
Interest rate cut probabilities increased recently due to less favorable GDP figures. The final estimates for the previous quarter showed a GDP of 0.5%, indicating slower economic progress in the US than anticipated months ago. This scenario leads to concerns about stagflation, characterized by a stagnating economy and persistent high inflation. In such a situation, the Federal Reserve might maintain high interest rates to curb inflation, further slowing economic growth. This creates a market environment of sideways movement.
US indices are already reflecting this potential stagflation, appearing volatile but essentially trading sideways. The speaker notes that the market has likely priced in stagflation, as indices are trading at similar levels to September 2025. For over six months (191 days), the market has remained in the same range, with recent lows matching 2024 prices, suggesting the market is already anchored in stagflation.
Turning to Bitcoin, the speaker expresses concern about its current technical position. Bitcoin has not yet broken through its fair value gap or formed a breaker block, and closing above a key resistance level has been unsuccessful. Stops have been taken out repeatedly, with the market hunting liquidity at highs and lows. A recent move was initiated after touching a fair value gap, but the resistance at the highs remains unbroken. An order block is present, and a new one has formed, indicating strong resistance and increasing leveraged long positions.
The speaker emphasizes the need for Bitcoin to "break out" as the market repeatedly tests this resistance with significant increases in open interest, predominantly from long positions. This accumulation of stops below recent lows creates a dangerous situation. The formation of a breaker block is crucial. Without it, and with increasing leverage, a poor CPI report could trigger a sharp reversal. The current scenario is viewed as a potential top for a bearish reversal until the breaker block is confirmed. The aggressive entry of leveraged traders is highlighted as a risk, as it could lead to a rapid market cleanup in the opposite direction if too many participants enter long positions.
On the spot market, buyers are present, but large players are distributing, preventing upward movement. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) shows an upward trend, indicating more market buyers, but the price is not breaking resistance. This is also observed in derivatives, where open interest is rising, but the market isn't breaking resistance. This indicates leverage is building, with sellers being stopped out and buyers being absorbed at resistance before the CPI. A negative CPI could lead to the rapid liquidation of these buyers, pushing the price back into the impulse zone. A positive CPI, such as 3% or 2.9%, well below expectations, would be beneficial for forming the breaker block.
The speaker suspects that market makers might already have knowledge of the CPI figures, citing past instances of suspicious options trading and institutional positioning before major news events. The "rapport code" has shown institutions going long during a conflict, suggesting prior knowledge of an impending agreement. This implies that market makers or other entities might possess information unavailable to the public. The current market action shows significant buying pressure attempting to break a key level, but this pressure is being absorbed by an unseen force, possibly market makers anticipating a reversal or acting on insider information.
The continuous buying pressure against an unmoving resistance is a critical observation. The CVD on perpetual futures is making new highs, yet the price cannot break resistance, mirroring the spot market. Buyers are actively purchasing, but a "invisible force" is holding the price back. Technically, after testing an order block and fair value gaps up to the $72,973,000 level, the price has not broken through. A breaker was formed yesterday upon breaking previous highs, but the price is struggling to advance. A divergence with the NASDAQ is also noted, indicating Bitcoin is not following the NASDAQ.
The speaker believes a distribution is occurring at current price levels, which could lead to breaking the order block, acting as a resistance. A positive CPI, significantly below 3.4%, could lead to breaking the order block, forming a breaker, breaking the fair value gap, and targeting the March high of $76,000. Conversely, a poor CPI could result in a sharp red candle, liquidating the absorbed buyers.
Two scenarios are presented:
1. **Reversal Scenario:** If Bitcoin breaks its daily fair value gap, it signals a reversal. The price is expected to target stops below $65,000.
2. **Bullish Scenario:** If a breaker is formed, the target is $76,000, the March high. Extreme caution is advised at this level, as many shorts would be liquidated. However, the speaker warns against entering long positions at this resistance due to an already "crowded long" situation. Even if the price reaches $76,000, traders should secure their positions to avoid losses, as exiting at a loss would be a professional error.
The speaker expresses that indices are likely to continue higher. However, a very poor CPI could trigger a significant sell-off. The speaker reiterates that the March high of $76,000 is a potential target for Bitcoin in the coming days or weeks, but acknowledges that the price could also consolidate and then rise further. This $76,000 level is considered the last major resistance before a potential downturn. The current price action, with buyers pushing but failing to break resistance, is attributed to this being the final significant hurdle before $76,000.
Ethereum is also discussed, trading within a range and facing rejection at similar levels. If Ethereum falls below yesterday's low, it could signal a retest of this week's lows, around $2,056, revalidating the range. Breaking the daily fair value gap is crucial for Ethereum. The last weekly fair value gap is also being respected.
The speaker concludes that today's CPI data is a "make or break" event. Significant distribution has occurred at current price levels. A good CPI would lead to a breakout. A bad CPI might indicate that market makers were aware of the poor data and have been taking the other side of trades from buyers. Analysis of open interest shows a pattern of traders entering long positions, getting liquidated, then shorts being liquidated, followed by new entrants entering during consolidation, with open interest exploding. Subsequent mini-dips saw open interest decrease, with some FOMO buyers panicking and then re-entering, leading to the current resistance.
With more buyers in the market at this resistance, a breakout is necessary. If it fails, the market is likely to liquidate these buyers below the previous low of $70,400. The formation of a bearish breaker below $70,400 would signal a reversal, targeting at least $67,600.
The speaker ends by promoting their trading strategy explained in their mentorship, offering free access to concepts and application. They also mention the "rapport code" and upcoming algorithms, along with VIP access on Discord. They encourage viewers to like, subscribe, and comment, and will provide a macro review later.