BITCOIN : NEWS EXCELLENTES !! $80,000 BIENTÔT !? 🚀

The speaker discusses the current market situation, particularly in relation to the potential agreement between the United States and Iran, which is influencing various global assets like Bitcoin, American indices, the dollar, and oil. The market has already priced in the likelihood of such an agreement, as evidenced by oil prices falling from $114 to $80, and American indices reaching new all-time highs (ATHs). If the agreement doesn't materialize, it could lead to a market reversal, as many short positions on indices and Bitcoin, and long positions on the dollar and oil, have been cleared. Regarding Bitcoin, the speaker notes that it has reached $76,000, which is seen as a profit-taking level for long positions. The speaker shares their personal trading strategy, explaining that they took a long Bitcoin position, secured a small profit, and then a larger profit at $76,000, while keeping 10% of the position open with a target of $79,389. Simultaneously, they opened a short position after observing an order block formation and a rejection in the fair value gap, indicating a potential local top and retracement. This dual positioning allows them to capture gains from both potential upward movement and short-term retracement. The speaker emphasizes that their trading decisions are based on high-probability setups and differ from long-term investment. While they believe Bitcoin could retrace to $60,000, this doesn't prevent them from trading short-term movements. They explain that the market sentiment, which widely anticipates a drop to $60,000, often means the market won't necessarily go there directly. The discussion then delves into the complexities of funding rates in derivative markets. The speaker debunks the simplistic view that negative funding automatically implies a market top due to retail shorts. Instead, negative funding can occur when market makers absorb significant spot demand by opening short positions in limit orders, causing the perpetual contract price to fall below the spot price. This is often a sign of institutional activity or large whales covering their spot exposures. Understanding the flow of orders, spot prices versus perpetual contract prices, and order books is crucial for a nuanced interpretation. The speaker reiterates their long-term view that Bitcoin will likely revisit levels below $60,000 this year, possibly in the $43,000-$48,000 range, due to divergences with American indices and the nature of previous bottoms not being true capitulation zones. However, this doesn't preclude short-term upward movements or trading opportunities. Looking at the second trimester, the speaker anticipates a bullish trend, meaning higher lows, rather than a continuous straight line upward. A potential retracement or "clean-up" could occur, possibly next week, leading to a re-test of support levels around $70,300-$68,200 for Bitcoin. This could trigger panic selling from retail investors, setting the stage for a stronger upward movement in the second trimester, potentially reaching $80,000-$88,000, which aligns with CME gaps. The geopolitical situation is highlighted as a critical factor. If an agreement is reached, the market is likely to continue its bullish trajectory. However, if geopolitical tensions escalate, it could lead to a market reversal, with investors shifting back to safe-haven assets like the dollar and oil, and away from riskier assets like Bitcoin and American indices. For investors, the speaker advises against being 100% in or out of the market. Instead, managing risk by having some Bitcoin exposure while keeping cash aside for potential dips is recommended. This strategy helps avoid frustration from missed opportunities and prevents panic selling during downturns. Institutional investors, for example, do not go all-in but strategically manage their positions and cash. The speaker also briefly touches on Ethereum, noting its potential to fill a gap around $2,150-$2,010 in the second trimester, assuming geopolitical stability. Altcoins like AAVE and BNB are also showing bullish signals, with Breaker Block formations confirming potential upward movements in the coming weeks. The speaker concludes by stressing the importance of vigilance, understanding market signals, and managing risk in the face of ongoing geopolitical developments.