🚨 ALERTE BITCOIN ! IRAN - USA : REPRISE DU CONFLIT ?

Rumors of renewed conflict are intensifying, prompting a review of the global markets, specifically Bitcoin, oil, the dollar, and various indices. Before delving into the analysis, it's worth noting the opportunity to gain free access to a VIP Discord, mentorship, and a COT report, which provides insights into institutional market positioning. This access is free and available via the first pinned comment, requiring registration through a partner link and active platform engagement. A tutorial is available for using the platform, covering futures contracts and other features. To complete the process, users must fill out a quick form, providing their email and Wix UID, then click to send the access request. This will display the Discord link, where users can join and enter the command "/af" to select "affiliation Wix" and enter their Wix UID, linking their account to Discord. Active users will unlock VIP crypto channels and the market review COT report channel, offering insights into institutional market positions. Regarding Bitcoin and the broader market, the escalating conflict rumors suggest a potential restart of hostilities. The market appears to be pricing in this hypothesis, as evidenced by a four-day rise in oil prices, which has broken the last bearish fair value gap in daily charts. This indicates that the market is currently within a clear ceasefire range. If a definitive agreement is reached, oil prices could break below this range. Without an agreement, prices will likely hover within this range. Should the conflict intensify, a breakout could occur, which would not be positive for the market. However, the market has established a clear equilibrium and framework. The rise in oil prices potentially signals a market expectation of renewed conflict, though whether it will materialize remains uncertain. Interestingly, the impact on US indices and assets like Bitcoin has been minimal to non-existent so far. On Nasdaq, the only notable action was the clearing of stops from the last bullish candle, with efforts already underway to reach new all-time highs (ATHs). The Dow Jones, however, has not yet reached an ATH, serving as a key indicator. Until it does, the expectation is for indices to remain bullish, unless geopolitical tensions significantly escalate, which is not currently the case. The rising oil prices and dollar are not impacting the indices, signaling that risk assets remain strong. The dollar is currently working through a fair value gap. If it breaks this gap, it will retest a portion of it. Whether this will be a simple rebound or not remains to be seen. The dollar has met its objectives and is currently in a consolidation phase. After consolidation, it will likely take a future direction, either bullish or bearish. At the peak, the market priced in a 50% probability of interest rate hikes. Unless a similar environment returns, which is not the case now, the dollar is unlikely to sustain itself above its previous peak. The more probable scenario involves a brief return to the gap, followed by consolidation or continued decline, potentially revisiting lower levels as the market has decided to clear the northern range and reintegrate. This potential move for the dollar would likely occur over several weeks or even months. In terms of interest rate probabilities, current market expectations show a 19% chance of rate cuts this year, which is relatively low, and a 3% chance of hikes. This is less catastrophic than the outlook a few weeks ago. Bitcoin, similar to the indices, is showing minimal reaction, indicating continued strength. The gap objective has not yet been reached, and the focus remains on reaching this gap. In the event of a dip, potential targets include a return below yesterday's low, further engagement with fair value zones, and possibly clearing the low of the last bullish candle (around 75,800 on futures). The underlying principle is that as long as the upward dynamic remains intact, dips are seen as opportunities to go higher, given the market's chosen bullish direction. The gap between 80,000 and 85,100 on futures is expected to be filled. A first objective of 79,400 on Perpetual contracts has already been met by clearing stops, but the cleanest deliveries are typically on CME, which has not yet occurred. Therefore, the expectation is to still head towards the gap this quarter, with dips serving as opportunities for further ascent. On a 12-hour timeframe, a fair value gap has already been filled, suggesting a potential pause before an upward movement towards 80,000 and beyond. To initiate such a move, the market might retest yesterday's stops. The overall dynamic remains bullish, with the next upward zone within the current impulse and fair value zones. Ethereum (ETH) is currently weaker than Bitcoin, as indicated by the ETH/BTC pair and a divergence from Bitcoin. However, as long as the daily fair value gap is respected, ETH is expected to continue higher. A potential stop hunt below last week's low next week is not impossible. The overarching goal for ETH remains to reach its gap in the second quarter. The flow into risk assets is currently bullish, with strong ETF inflows. Stablecoin printing is also on the rise, with 846 million stablecoins printed today alone, following a nearly 1 billion print two days prior. This indicates a return of interest to the market, though not a "to the moon" mega bull run. Despite ongoing conflicts and a generally pessimistic sentiment, this suggests a bullish second quarter. While dips and market stresses due to news are possible, each stress event is being bought, forming higher lows and signaling a bullish dynamic. When bad news fails to significantly impact a market, it indicates bullishness. Conversely, good news that doesn't lead to market gains suggests weakness. This was observed previously when good news failed to move the market, leading to lower highs and a bearish trend. Currently, despite bad news, the price is holding well, suggesting a continued bullish direction and a potential move into the gap for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.