Enfin un début de reprise sur le marché crypto ?! - Analyse crypto 📈

The speaker welcomes viewers back after a two-week break, noting that the crypto market has seen significant movement, with a general upward trend for both Bitcoin and altcoins. The video aims to analyze these movements, suggest potential strategies, and forecast future market behavior. The analysis begins with "Total ES" on TradingView, which represents the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding stablecoins. This chart is set to a monthly timeframe, showing data from 2020 to the present. The speaker highlights the 2020-2021 bull market, the 2022 bear market, and the subsequent bull market starting in 2023, followed by a recent correction. Despite a 55% drop since October, the correction appears minor on the monthly chart. A critical "hinge zone" is identified on the Total ES monthly chart, passing through three key points: the peak of the 2021 bull market (around $2.48-$2.5 trillion), the March 2024 consolidation peak (also around the same level), and a subsequent retest of this zone after breaking new highs. This zone acted as a resistance in 2021, then a support in early 2023, and was retested again as resistance before a new all-time high was reached in October 2025, followed by a sharp decline until early February. Currently, the market is experiencing a rebound within this downtrend. The speaker questions whether a bottom has been found, stating there's no certainty. On the monthly chart, the probability leans towards a rebound within the downtrend rather than a trend reversal. This is because a resistance was broken and retested with a bounce, followed by a consolidation that was broken downwards, leading to the current rebound and retest of the hinge zone. This pattern mirrors how markets behave during trend continuations, both upwards and downwards. An analogy is drawn to Solana's price action, where a consolidation was broken down, followed by a rebound and retest, leading to a continuation of the bearish trend. Similar patterns were observed in altcoins against Bitcoin. Statistically, when a support is broken, it often becomes resistance. Therefore, a downward bounce from the current zone is statistically expected. However, a breakout and trend reversal are not ruled out. The speaker notes that the 2023 bull market lacked extreme volatility, suggesting that a less volatile upward trend might imply a less volatile downward trend. Currently, the market is viewed as a profit-taking zone or an area requiring caution, not for accumulation or as a market bottom. Zooming into a weekly timeframe for Total ES, a significant hinge zone that was previously broken upwards is identified. This broken resistance is expected to act as support. A retest of this red zone, turning it into support, would validate a double bottom and allow for a further rebound. On a 3-day timeframe for Total ES, the same hinge zone from 2024, which has acted as both support and resistance, is shown to have been retested as support. This indicates a more bullish sentiment on shorter timeframes (3-day and weekly) compared to the monthly view, where caution is advised. An "Alt Season Index" is introduced, which shows capital flow. If this index rises, capital is moving towards Bitcoin or stablecoins, away from altcoins. Conversely, a fall indicates money flowing into altcoins. The speaker prefers trading periods of altcoin strength, deeming them easier for profit. Currently, this index is not showing a bearish trend, with a consolidation followed by a breakout and retest. Analyzing "Total 3" (altcoins against USD, excluding stablecoins), a different picture emerges. After a consolidation since February, a breakout occurred in early May, and the market is currently retesting this breakout zone as support. A successful rebound here would validate the flip of resistance into support, potentially leading to higher altcoin prices. This presents a conflicting scenario with the alt season index, indicating a market decision point. The "Total 3 US BTC" chart (altcoins versus Bitcoin) shows that altcoins are currently weaker than Bitcoin. While a rebound occurred after hitting a support zone, it's described as "ridiculous" and a retest of the support zone is possible, potentially forming a bullish divergence. However, this could also mean a delay in altcoin season, requiring further weeks of consolidation and a second correction for a stronger entry. Regarding Bitcoin, a bearish "Shuvashovs fork" pattern is suggested, indicating a potential trend change if the second upward trendline is broken. No bearish divergence is observed on the RSI daily, but a break of the RSI support trendline from February could signal a slowdown or weakness in the current rebound. Bitcoin is not considered an investment zone currently, especially with the proximity to a retest of the late 2025 consolidation. Ethereum (ETH) appears weak, struggling at a resistance zone around $2370 and making lower lows compared to a previous bottom. ETH/BTC also shows weakness, with new lows despite some slight bullish divergence. Solana (SOL) has rebounded on a previously identified support zone (January 2023 top). However, it remains in a bearish trend against Bitcoin since January 2025. Against USD, it has bounced on the March 2022 support and is consolidating, potentially forming a double top on the 3-day chart. No breakout has occurred yet. The analysis concludes by stating that the market is at a decision point, with conflicting signals between different timeframes and indices. The speaker will provide an update next week.