LE PÉTROLE VA ENCORE SECOUER LES MARCHÉS ? 🚨 (Trump peut tout gâcher)

The current market situation is largely influenced by the impending deadline set by Trump regarding Iran, with oil prices already experiencing a significant surge and approaching their March highs. This analysis delves into potential movements across indices, gold, and the dollar. Before diving into the market specifics, a reminder is provided about free access to mentorship and VIP services on Discord, accessible via a form linked in the pinned comment. To qualify, users must register on Prime XBT through a partner link, deposit a minimum of $500, and then submit their details to receive VIP access and mentorship via email. Prime XBT is a broker offering trading in Forex, indices, and commodities using crypto as collateral. Focusing on oil, the market is nearing the March peak, with a crucial deadline tonight at 8 PM New York time to determine if an agreement will be reached. The current sentiment suggests an agreement is unlikely, despite potential delays or extensions to the deadline, which has reportedly happened numerous times before. Technically, various markets have seen rebounds, including a strong dollar, rising oil prices, and recovering US indices. The speaker posits that if no agreement is reached, the market could experience a swift correction, as recent price movements have primarily been driven by the liquidation of short positions. The overall flow of risk assets is expected to hinge on the dollar's reaction and, more importantly, oil's performance. If oil surpasses its March high and subsequently forms a bearish order block, it could signal a resistance level and the potential start of a range-bound market, possibly leading to a retest of recent lows. This would imply a cooling of tensions and a less bullish outlook for oil. Conversely, if oil attempts to break its March high without any bearish reaction or order block formation, the bullish momentum would likely persist. In this bullish scenario for oil, the analysis points to a potential continuation of the significant price displacement observed since 2014, targeting the annual fair value gap (FVG) extending up to $132. On a monthly chart, this FVG could reach $150, with the ultimate objective being the 2024 summit. While acknowledging the uncertainty of reaching these levels, the speaker highlights AB=CD extension targets that could potentially reach the buy-side liquidity above $170, with a specific target of $174. These are considered theoretical top objectives if the market were to escalate significantly, though currently, such a scenario seems distant, requiring the breach of the annual FVG and other resistance zones. As long as oil remains bullish, the speaker believes the environment remains risky for risk assets, with rebounds being temporary until a sustained bullish dynamic emerges. Transitioning to the NASDAQ, a bearish dynamic is still in play, with no clear formation of a new bullish trend. The index has tested significant levels, including last week's highs and previous daily highs. A potential target is the high from two weeks ago, which represents a bearish weekly candle. However, the immediate focus is on the rejection at the last low and the fair value gap. The respect of this FVG is deemed crucial in the coming hours. If it holds, the market could revisit the daily highs (M-highs). If it breaks, the target would likely be the daily lows (M-lows), potentially below 23,982 points. For personal trading and investment, the speaker admits to not actively trading indices at the moment, preferring to observe and await a bullish dynamic shift. For investment purposes, the strategy involves waiting for reload zones and a return to fundamental values. On the NASDAQ, using GuruFocus as a reference, the fundamental value is estimated to be around 19,000 points, representing a return to the median and a correction from current overvaluation. This technical level aligns with previously identified reload zones and gaps. The focus is on long-term investment rather than short-term trading. For swing trading, the speaker is waiting for a bullish dynamic to re-emerge, at which point they would consider long positions targeting new all-time highs, assuming the market is not at the end of a cycle. The speaker does not personally believe the next four years will be bearish. On a daily chart, the speaker is observing the bullish fair value gap. A breach of this bullish FVG would suggest a retest of the lows. However, the ultimate direction will depend on external factors like Trump's potential deadline extension, potential attacks, and their impact on oil prices. The current price action in oil, with its recent rise, might be indicative of a "sell the news" event, where the market priced in the event and is now reacting to the lack of an agreement and potential continued US actions against Iran, which could trigger a bearish leg. The S&P 500 is exhibiting similar behavior. There has been a slight breach of the daily FVG, potentially leading to testing buy-side liquidity. However, a rejection has occurred at the previous weekly high, with stop-loss orders being taken. The hourly FVG is also a key level to watch. If it holds, a revisit of Monday's low at 6567 points is possible, and this zone could be an area for a bullish extension within a discount. A failure to hold this low could lead to a test of the 6503 point level and a return to the daily FVG. Engagement in trading is cautioned against due to the approaching deadline. The VIX has calmed down significantly after reaching a quarterly summit and has been rejected at a fair value gap, indicating reduced volatility for now. However, a reclaim of this FVG would signal increased pressure and volatility. Regarding the dollar, there has been little movement, with a persistent bullish flow and respected fair value gaps and breakers. An order block suggests a potential slowdown, possibly leading to consolidation. If this order block becomes a breaker, it could signal a continuation and a fill of the monthly FVG. The key factor to watch is the dollar's movement within its current range; breaking out of this range could have bearish implications for risk assets and the Euro/Dollar, with a theoretical target of 113. The current scenario for the dollar remains consolidation, potential manipulation, and expansion, provided daily FVG zones are respected. Finally, concerning gold, it is currently being rejected at its fair value gap. The bullish FVG is being monitored. A breach of this bullish FVG would confirm rejection of the bearish FVG and likely lead to a retest of last week's low at 4444 points. This would confirm a bearish continuation and a retest of the lows, with the possibility of a new bearish dynamic. Gold's correlation with the dollar and oil is noted; a strong dollar and rising oil prices can pressure gold. If indices experience a bearish leg, selling gold to free up margin for equities is a common strategy. Until the FVG is broken, no new bullish signal is expected, but a breach could lead to a retest of the lows. The speaker concludes by encouraging viewers to like, subscribe, and comment, and mentions a partnership with Wix for crypto traders, offering VIP access and upcoming algorithms.