BITCOIN : REPRISE de la CHUTE ! 🚨 (c'est un piège)

The current market sentiment is influenced by rising oil prices, which are nearing new highs, creating pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. The speaker emphasizes the importance of identifying daily summits and discusses potential objectives. A global market overview is provided, with a particular focus on the US dollar. The FOMC meeting resulted in no change to interest rates. Jerome Powell's continued influence on the Fed is mentioned, and the Fed's stance is seen as being constrained by high oil prices. The probability of interest rate cuts this year is low (5-6%), with an increasing chance of rate hikes (up to 12%). Despite optimistic narratives about the stock market and US economy, earnings of American companies are reportedly falling. While some companies like Meta have shown mixed results, the overall trend suggests a potential disconnect. The Nasdaq has reached a significant high, but the price-to-earnings ratio is considered elevated but not at historical extremes seen in 2009. If corporate earnings continue to decline, this could challenge the upward trend of US indices. Key economic data to watch includes the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. A slow GDP below forecasts could signal stagflation, while a surging PCE would be negative. A scenario where GDP is lower than expected and PCE is higher than expected would indicate higher inflation metrics and weaker growth, which is unfavorable. Conversely, if both GDP and core PCE exceed forecasts, it would be a positive sign. The speaker notes that significant economic data releases, such as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and wage data, are expected around Monday, May 8th. Globally, oil prices continue to rise, but this is not currently impacting US indices or the VIX (volatility index). While the VIX has seen a slight rebound, it's not at aggressive levels. The dollar is expected to target its gap, and a consolidation phase is underway. The speaker recalls that a 50% probability of interest rate cuts was priced in, and until this changes significantly, a new summit for the dollar is unlikely, although it may work on its value gap. A substantial increase in the probability of rate hikes could lead to a higher dollar summit. Regarding Bitcoin, the speaker expresses a belief that it will eventually fill a CME gap in the second quarter. However, the current phase is seen as a retracement. The daily summit formed previously is a potential reversal zone. The speaker is observing the premium zone of this movement and notes that the 0.5% Fibonacci retracement level has been reached, suggesting that a decline could begin from this rebound. Liquidation is occurring, with a fair value gap forming. The speaker considers the top of the current summit a good zone for further downward movement, aiming for lower lows within the week. On perpetual markets, similar price action is observed, with a closing in the red signaling a potential new low to take out stops. The objective is to purge stops left behind, potentially reaching levels around 73,200. The speaker details the liquidity grab on perpetual markets and the subsequent price drop. The idea is to return to the premium zone, which is considered a bearish continuation zone. The speaker compares the current CME situation to a previous instance where the CME lagged behind the perpetual market in recovering stops, suggesting that the CME's price action is a more reliable indicator. The current CME action is seen as working on price levels left behind before returning to purge stops. The focus is on the levels before the February summit, which was reached on perpetuals but not on CME. The speaker believes the CME is working on a weekly fair value gap and a daily gap. The market is seen to be moving slowly, in an "escalator" fashion, with phases of pumps, retracements, and recharge zones. This pattern could repeat, with a test of the weekly fair value gap and then another push in the next week to fill the gap. Key levels on the CME include the previous week's low and the daily fair value gap. On perpetuals, a specific price zone is highlighted. The weekly fair value gap is considered an intact zone that could be a recharge zone for a deeper retracement. The speaker speculates that a deeper phase could target the area between 70,300 and 68,800 to form the next summit, which would then aim to fill the fair value gap left behind. The fact that stops were taken on the CME but not on the perpetual market suggests this area could be worked to form an ascending low. On a daily chart, the market is struggling to break out. Every time stops are taken, there are significant retracements. The fair value gap is a potential target, with levels around 73,200 to 73,100 being areas the market could revisit. There are no signs of inversion, and the price action is dynamically bearish. Liquidation pushing to new lower lows is seen as an indicator of rebounds. Bitcoin is in a retracement phase, and identifying the bottom is complex. The speaker considers it possible that the market has already topped at 59,000, but more likely, it's forming an ascending low to continue working on previous levels in the second quarter. The speaker does not believe the bottom is in at 59,008 but rather higher, and the second quarter may not have seen its definitive top. The current retracement could target levels around 70,400, which would then lead to a future push. The lack of stablecoin inflows and calm ETF demand are contributing to this retracement phase. Ethereum is also being analyzed. The speaker finds it unusual that Ethereum did not take out stops and believes it will follow Bitcoin's move. If Bitcoin rejects its daily summit, Ethereum is expected to reject in that zone as well. There are no signs of reversal for Ethereum, and the dynamic remains bearish. The speaker anticipates Ethereum will target the next stop zones at 2173 and 2156, and potentially the weekly fair value gap. On CME, the gap is not completely filled, suggesting a revisit. The objective on CME is the lower low, and on a daily basis, there's a gap to be filled. The speaker notes that Ethereum has not formed breakers and has only chased the order block, reintegrating into a previous impulse's recharge zone, which corresponds to a gap around 2150. This confirms the potential for retracements. The speaker reiterates that this is not a bull run or strong momentum, as evident in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The ETH/BTC pair has shown a bearish signal this quarter, indicating Ethereum's underperformance against Bitcoin. Ethereum has not made new highs while Bitcoin has. The speaker highlights that at the beginning of the quarter, liquidity was taken, and a monthly fair value gap was almost filled, followed by a bearish market structure shift, signifying a bearish quarter for both Ethereum and Bitcoin. Therefore, Ethereum is expected to underperform Bitcoin this quarter and potentially fill its gaps.