IRAN - USA REPRISE du CONFLIT ! PIÈGE BAISSIER DES MARCHÉS ?

The current market situation is marked by an escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran, which is contributing to a significant rise in oil prices. This geopolitical event is a key factor influencing market sentiment and potential price movements across various assets. Regarding oil, the disagreement between the US and Iran suggests a potential resumption of conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route, remains largely closed, with very few ships passing through. This situation is exerting upward pressure on oil prices. There is a possibility of revisiting previous relative highs in oil prices, depending on how the geopolitical situation unfolds. Traders will be closely monitoring whether Trump reverses his stance or if the conflict escalates, leading to further attacks on strategic oil and gas facilities in the Gulf. If this occurs, energy prices, including oil, are expected to continue their ascent, potentially fueling inflation and hindering the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates. While revisiting previous highs is a possibility, the formation of an order block suggests that a rapid reversal by Trump might occur if oil prices reach new peaks. The market is currently in a phase of filling a significant price gap created by the initial news. The next crucial observation will be whether the market reintegrates into its previous range, suggesting consolidation, manipulation, or expansion. A positive geopolitical resolution could lead to a revisit of previous lows, potentially with Trump backtracking due to excessive market pressure. The VIX index shows a slight rebound, but it's not yet significant enough to indicate major shifts. Historically, oil prices have reached levels above $120 per barrel, and the current upward trend could potentially lead to such figures again. For those using the same charting tools, it's important to note the use of adjusted futures contracts for oil (CL1) to match the displayed graph. The Dollar Index has reacted positively to a small fair value gap (FVG) and has retested its gap. However, significant moves are not yet apparent. The dollar is expected to retest its gap, and its bearish bias will depend on geopolitical developments. Macroeconomically, the market seems to have priced in most scenarios. The possibility of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve is unlikely, and a reduction in rates is also not anticipated in the near future, with no expected rate hikes even by late 2027. Current probabilities suggest a very low chance of rate increases. The dollar is currently considered to be at a peak, and further range-bound trading is expected. A breakout would likely signal a significant event, such as persistent inflation requiring the Fed to raise rates, as seen in the 1980s. However, this scenario is considered unlikely. A potential bullish continuation for the dollar could arise if European interest rates are significantly lowered while US rates remain stable or higher, creating a wider interest rate differential. However, Europe is unlikely to lower rates aggressively due to inflation risks associated with rising oil prices. Inflation in Europe will be a key factor to watch. If inflation remains high in Europe, it could complicate matters. Trading Economics is a useful resource for tracking inflation data in the US and Europe. If European inflation falls faster than US inflation, it could allow for earlier rate cuts in Europe, which would support a stronger dollar. Until then, significant upward movement in the dollar beyond the current FVG zone is unlikely, with a retest of previous lows being a possibility. In the Eurodollar market, current price action is retesting previous fair value gaps, showing a minor rejection. The potential remains to revisit the March highs as long as the current dynamic holds. However, a strong bullish recovery for the Eurodollar is not anticipated, with further range-bound trading being more probable if the situation does not deteriorate. Regarding indices, the Nasdaq has not yet reached significant demand zones, though it has taken out buy-side liquidity. The recent strong impulse move suggests a potential to reach new highs, possibly the March summit. This remains the objective as long as there is no inversion in the bias. A reaction within the current FVG zone is expected, aiming for the March highs. However, a significant escalation of the oil conflict and a subsequent dollar surge could alter this outlook. The current institutional positioning, as indicated by the COT report, does not suggest a major sell-off. If the situation worsens, institutions might be forced to exit positions, potentially triggering a bearish leg and a market trap. Nevertheless, the prevailing expectation is a move towards the March highs. A breach of the current impulse move would signal deeper retracements, and the previous week's low is considered too low at this point. The FVG zone on the Nasdaq is of interest, and the current rebound from liquidity grab needs to be monitored. A revisit of this FVG and potential continuation towards the monthly highs is plausible, provided the bias remains unchanged. A daily order block formation could signal a top and lead to range-bound trading between bullish and bearish order blocks. The S&P 500 has also paused before reaching its target objectives, having taken out weekly highs. A move towards the March highs is considered a likely scenario, with the potential to revisit the FVG zone. Finally, gold is currently trading within two fair value gaps. Until one of these FVGs is resolved, a clear direction is unlikely. The previous week's low has been tested for liquidity. As long as the FVG is not broken, the previous week's low could serve as a continuation zone for working the bearish FVG and potentially reaching the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) zone. The previous week's low being taken out suggests a potential move higher, possibly to reclaim the gap and relative highs, or even the previous week's summit, while continuing to work the FVG. However, if the FVG is lost, this bullish idea would be invalidated, and the market would likely head towards the next previous low. For those interested in crypto trading, Wix is a partner for accessing VIP crypto services, mentorship, and COT reports, with a dedicated form available in the pinned comments.