La Bourse EXPLOSE grâce au KRACH (et c'est débile)

The speaker begins by noting a surprising 12% rise in US markets over the past week, a scenario he wouldn't have predicted. He emphasizes the importance of understanding market "sub-waves" to avoid unnecessary stress and focuses on what the market is actually doing rather than trying to predict its future movements. A key concept introduced is the distinction between different types of investors. One group, described as having high IQs and extensive knowledge of economics and macroeconomics, often correctly identifies market inefficiencies and overvaluations but struggles with timing, leading to frustration. Another group, more experienced, understands the critiques of the first group but possesses the ability to follow market trends and capitalize on momentum, even when it seems irrational. These investors prioritize following the market's flow and understanding its inefficiencies to generate performance, rather than proving themselves right. The speaker advocates for this latter approach, stressing that the goal is to make money by adapting to market movements and having contingency plans for potential shifts. The discussion then touches upon geopolitical factors, particularly the impact of US policy on international relations. The speaker notes a perception of the US as a less reliable ally, potentially pushing nations towards China. He also mentions the long-term implications of Chinese investments and the need for the US to look inward. Regarding commodity prices, the speaker draws a parallel to the period before the 2008 subprime crisis, noting the rise in agricultural commodities mirroring past trends. He acknowledges that rising energy prices can negatively impact the economy, purchasing power, and potentially lead to social crises, but stresses that these effects take time to manifest and can be difficult to reverse once they do. A significant portion of the analysis is dedicated to the AI bubble narrative. The speaker argues that within the broader AI market, there's a distinction between the hardware/semiconductor sector, which is experiencing high investment and demand from hyperscalers, and the software/cybersecurity sector, which is currently underperforming. He suggests that while some segments of AI might be speculative, the overall hardware sector's performance is driven by substantial capital investment rather than a pure bubble. He highlights the heterogeneity within the AI market, with some areas experiencing rapid revaluation while others are struggling. This internal divergence within the AI market, and within broader indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, means that looking at aggregate indices can be misleading. The speaker observes market rotations, moving from cyclical value stocks to previously neglected growth stocks like the "Gafa" companies (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon – though the speaker uses "Gafames" which implies a similar group) and other non-semiconductor values. He reiterates that for a bullish scenario on indices, rebounds in these large-cap tech companies are crucial. He contrasts the performance of software companies, which dominated tech performance until 2021 but are now struggling, with the resilience of hardware and the leadership of semiconductors. He points out that the weighting of tech stocks in indices can mask these underlying rotations, especially when energy stocks, despite significant gains, represent a small portion of the index. The speaker stresses the importance of looking beyond index performance, as it can present a distorted view of the market. He notes that despite recent strong market performance, significant challenges persist. He addresses the ongoing impact of energy prices, suggesting that even if conflicts end and supply chains normalize, there will be lasting effects on growth and inflation. He posits that while central banks might try to manage inflation through measures like releasing strategic reserves or allowing Venezuelan/Iranian oil back into the market, the underlying supply-side inflation driven by commodity prices remains a concern. Even for net exporters like the US, rising energy prices impact consumers and refining operations. The discussion then delves into monetary policy and debt. The speaker notes that central banks are unlikely to raise rates significantly, leading to continued monetary creation and debt accumulation. This debt is not currently a major issue as long as long-term rates remain subdued. However, he warns of various "swords of Damocles" hanging over the market, including government debt, private debt collateral, private equity, and geopolitical instability in the Middle East, which could impact oil prices and regional economies. The Japanese economy is also mentioned, with rising inflation, including wage inflation, potentially prompting the Bank of Japan to raise rates. This could strengthen the Yen and lead to capital outflows from US investments. The AI race is highlighted as a key driver, leading to potential IPOs and M&A activity. The speaker suggests that insider buying, company acquisitions, and private equity exits will continue to fuel the market. However, he cautions about potential industrial bottlenecks and misallocation of capital as companies rapidly scale up AI-related investments. He believes the market is currently focused on the growth narrative, not yet pricing in these longer-term risks of industrial challenges and slower-than-expected growth. The speaker emphasizes that while the US market is the focus, emerging markets are experiencing significant profit growth, particularly with a weakening dollar. He reiterates the divergence within the tech and AI sectors, with software struggling while hardware and semiconductors thrive. He suggests that the current correlation between software and AI hardware is inverse and may reverse. He defines "sub-waves" as short-term fluctuations within a larger trend and warns against misinterpreting them as trend reversals. The core message is that the world is awash in capital, and the focus should be on factors like the euro-dollar exchange rate and interest rates to guide investment decisions across asset classes. He foresees continued sub-wave rotations within major asset classes. Turning to charts, the speaker analyzes the US 10-year Treasury yield, suggesting that a stable, zigzagging pattern between 80% and 90% is favorable for equities. Rapid upward or downward movements in yields would be detrimental to stocks. He believes the current environment, characterized by this stable yield pattern, is the "best-case scenario" for stocks. Regarding oil prices, he argues that current levels, while seemingly high, are not as extreme when adjusted for inflation compared to historical peaks in 2008 and 2022. He suggests that current oil prices between $80 and $100 are not a major market concern, but exceeding $100 would signal rising tensions and vigilance. A sustained drop below $80 would indicate oil is no longer a problem. He also considers the possibility of oil prices falling drastically due to strategic decisions by Gulf countries, but cautions that such a sharp decline could trigger financial crises. The CAC 40 index is analyzed as showing a V-shaped rebound, with potential to reach 8400-8450 points. As long as it stays above 8000-8100 points, the trend is considered bullish, with dips being buying opportunities. A drop below 8000 points would signal a return of weakness. The euro-dollar exchange rate is deemed important. Its current weakness, despite geopolitical events, suggests market confidence. A move above 1.16-1.19 would be positive for international investments, but a sustained rise above 1.20 could negatively impact European exporters and prompt the ECB to cut rates, benefiting European cyclical and consumer stocks. The Nasdaq is described as having broken out of a bullish pattern, with a significant gap. As long as it remains above this gap, the trend is bullish. He likens the current market to 1998, characterized by strong underlying uptrends despite some risks and occasional sharp corrections. He expresses a desire for a pullback to accumulate positions but emphasizes that shallow pullbacks would confirm market strength. He notes that the correction in large-cap tech stocks has provided room for the Nasdaq to reach new highs. He reiterates that indices are weighted averages and can be misleading. He advises caution and notes that he is taking profits and hedging at current levels, acknowledging the exceptional 12% weekly gain. He emphasizes the importance of managing risk through technical analysis. Finally, he looks at gold and silver as indicators. A sustained rise in gold above $4900, breaking through a downtrend, would confirm a bullish market sentiment. If gold fails to hold these levels, it would signal weakness for stocks. He believes there is a strong correlation between gold and equities. He concludes by mentioning upcoming videos on specific stocks and reiterating the importance of community engagement.