Top Polymarket Trader Reveals How He Wins! ft. Easy

This episode of "The Order Book" features a discussion on market volatility, geopolitical events, and emerging trends in the crypto space. The host and guest, Easy, explore the recent market bounce, attributing it partly to de-escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Despite the positive short-term movement, both maintain a bearish long-term outlook on major assets like Bitcoin, citing high timeframe charts. The conversation highlights the importance of not chasing price and basing trades on conviction rather than news headlines. The host shares taking profits on Bitcoin longs while holding the remainder, anticipating a potential move towards $80,000, but reiterates the overarching bearish bias. Easy, a seasoned trader with experience since 2017 in crypto and longer in equities, shares his perspective. He emphasizes being bearish on Bitcoin until it consistently closes above $84,000. He notes that even a move to $90,000 for Solana would still represent a lower high within its overall downtrend. Easy also points out that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts exhibit signs of lower highs and potential double tops, respectively. A key indicator for him is US oil prices; he believes risk-on assets can only be confidently traded if oil stays below $95, as it influences inflation. The recent ceasefire announcement has led to a significant drop in the probability of a US interest rate hike, with FedWatch now indicating a "no hike, no cut" scenario. The discussion then pivots to the meme coin cycle and the nature of trading in the current market. Both hosts acknowledge the shift from long-term holding to rapid, short-term trading, comparing it to fast-paced video games. They express a preference for more tangible business models and tokens that reflect company performance, highlighting Hyperliquid as an example of a successful crypto business with a token that has mirrored its growth. They contrast this with Pump.fun, suggesting its user base is more extractive and focused on quick gains rather than holding. A significant portion of the conversation is dedicated to prediction markets, particularly Polymarket. Easy shares his experience turning a $100 challenge account into over $1,400 by trading on various markets, including sports, geopolitics, and entertainment. He emphasizes the importance of research, data analysis, and identifying market inefficiencies. He uses platforms like Mention Metrics and Elon Tweets Live to gather data for his predictions, demonstrating a data-driven approach rather than pure speculation. Easy highlights how these markets allow individuals to capitalize on information asymmetry and turn conversations into financial positions. He notes the liquidity challenges on Polymarket for certain niche markets but emphasizes the potential for significant returns by identifying undervalued "no" bets or trading to fair value. The hosts also touch upon emerging trends. Easy expresses interest in the AI narrative and its adjacent sectors, particularly robotics. He believes that while not every project needs a token, the robotics sector could present significant opportunities in the coming years. He also discusses the privacy narrative, comparing Zcash and Monero. While acknowledging the chart performance of Zcash, he leans towards Monero as the more authentic privacy coin. However, he expresses caution about the long-term viability of privacy coins due to increasing built-in privacy features on other chains and potential regulatory scrutiny. The conversation touches on the potential impact of regulation, with the possibility of a future administration enforcing KYC on all on-chain activities, which could favor privacy coins or create challenges for platforms like Hyperliquid. Towards the end, they discuss the shift in the crypto landscape, moving away from the "meme coin super cycle bullshit" towards more substantive projects and innovative trading platforms like prediction markets. They conclude by emphasizing the value of good content creators in the crypto space and the fun and educational aspects of prediction markets. The episode ends with shout-outs to sponsors Kraken and Polymarket, encouraging viewers to support the channel.