8 mots de Powell : 600 points perdus sur le Dow. Pourquoi ?

This summary provides an overview of the recent Federal Reserve meeting and Jerome Powell’s press conference, based on the provided transcript. **A Relaxed Farewell Amidst Economic Turbulence** Jerome Powell is approaching the end of his tenure as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, with his mandate set to expire on May 15. During his second-to-last press conference, Powell appeared notably relaxed and even humorous, despite a backdrop of significant economic uncertainty. While the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% was a certainty for market observers, the real interest lay in the Fed’s future outlook and the shifting economic landscape. **The Decision and the Economic Context** This meeting marked the second consecutive pause in interest rate movements, following three rate cuts that took place in late 2025. Although inflation was recently recorded at 2.4%, this figure is considered outdated because it does not account for the massive spike in oil prices following the outbreak of war in Iran in early March. The Fed is currently navigating a "perfect storm" of contradictory signals. On one hand, there are new inflationary pressures from Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and soaring oil prices, which have doubled and currently sit above $110 per barrel. On the other hand, the US labor market has shown signs of severe distress, with nearly 100,000 jobs recently lost. This conflict between rising prices and a weakening job market puts the Fed in a difficult position regarding its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. **The "Dot Plot" and Future Projections** A key takeaway from the meeting involved the "dot plot," which tracks the individual projections of FOMC members. The median of these projections now suggests that a rate cut is unlikely until 2026. This is a significant shift from previous expectations; before the conflict in Iran, markets anticipated two rate cuts this year. Now, investors are only pricing in a single cut for December, or perhaps even January 2027. Furthermore, the Fed has raised its long-term "neutral" interest rate from 3% to 3.1%, indicating that high interest rates are expected to be a structural fixture for a long time. Inflation projections for 2026 have also been adjusted upward to 2.7%, compared to the previous estimate of 2.5%. **Growth, AI, and Productivity** In a surprising twist, US growth projections were slightly upgraded to 2.4%. Powell attributed this resilience to gains in productivity linked to artificial intelligence. The transcript notes a trend where American companies are laying off employees to replace them with AI, resulting in higher productivity and growth despite the loss of jobs. **Navigating by Sight** Powell candidly admitted that the Federal Reserve is currently "navigating by sight." The geopolitical situation, particularly the supply issues in the Strait of Hormuz, makes long-term forecasting nearly impossible. The Fed’s ability to adjust its policy was also hampered by a recent US government shutdown, which deprived officials of the macroeconomic data needed to make precise adjustments. **The Succession and Market Impact** As Powell prepares to exit, his presumed successor, Kevin Warsh, faces a hurdle. Senator Tom Tillis is currently blocking the nomination in the Senate, pending a Department of Justice investigation into renovations at the Federal Reserve’s headquarters. Regarding the risk of "stagflation," Powell dismissed the term for the time being, reserving it only for extreme scenarios like the 1970s, where both unemployment and inflation reached double digits. However, the market reaction to his comments was swift: the US dollar rose while gold and other risky assets fell. The Dow Jones dropped 600 points as investors realized that the continued rise in oil prices would inevitably sustain high inflation. **Conclusion** Jerome Powell’s final meeting is scheduled for late April. By that time, the Fed will have two full months of data regarding the impact of the war in Iran. For now, the central bank remains in a state of "wait and see," balancing a fragile economy with a calm but uncertain approach. The year 2026 is expected to be a challenging period as these global shocks continue to unfold.