BITCOIN : PIÈGE BAISSIER & EXPLOSION des $80,000 !

This coming week is expected to be extremely important for the markets. The FOMC meeting will provide more insights from the Fed regarding inflation and economic slowdown or growth, which will be quite significant. A technical update on BTC, the dollar, and oil will also be provided, reviewing their positions from Friday. Before delving into the market analysis, it's important to note that free access to the VIP, mentorship, and code report sections on Wig is available for affiliated and active platform users. To register, use the first pinned link in the comments, then fill out the second form. After submitting your email and Wix ID, a Discord link will appear. Join the Discord, navigate to the registration channel, and use the command `/AF` to select "affiliation Wix" and enter your UID. This links your Wix and Discord accounts, granting access to VIP crypto channels and the market review code report, the latest of which was published last Friday and is highly interesting. Regarding BTC and the FOMC, the economic calendar shows that on Monday, the Bank of Japan will announce a potential interest rate hike, though the market currently expects no change. Tuesday has no major events. Wednesday, the 29th, is crucial with the FOMC interest rate decision. A rate cut or hike is unlikely, with a 99% chance of rates remaining unchanged. This year, the market anticipates a 38% probability of rate cuts, meaning a higher probability of no cuts, which is interesting. The Fed's discourse will confirm or contradict this. However, with Jerome Powell's impending departure, the next Chairman might implement a completely different policy, which the market will react to once his successor is known. Thursday brings the first GDP estimates, projected at 2.2%. This is a significant increase from the previous quarter's 0.5%. If the actual figure falls well below 2.2%, the market might interpret it as a sign of economic slowdown. Also on Thursday, the core PCE data, a crucial inflation indicator, will be released, making the upcoming week highly significant. Regarding short-term price action, there isn't much activity; the market is consolidating. Deeper analysis will reveal interesting continuation zones. The overarching idea for the second quarter is to fill the CME futures gap between $84,000 and $80,000. The CME is currently closed, and the closing price on Friday at 4 PM (local time) was determined by the upper body of the candle. Prices are expected to oscillate around these levels until the market reopens tonight. Currently, there's only consolidation. Open interest is falling across the board as positions, both long and short, are being closed. Sellers haven't shown significant presence, as indicated by CVDs still trending upwards, suggesting buyers remain in control. Dips are not to be excluded, especially to retest the untested lower regions of the previous impulse. A "stress move" to recover daily lows, fill FVGs, and then continue upwards would not be surprising. The belief in further upward movement is supported by the fact that the monthly peak was perfectly hit on the spot market, leading to a normal consolidation reaction. However, on the futures market, the current price level doesn't correspond to any significant resistance. The CME's true target is the monthly peak at $80,500. Therefore, a period of consolidation, manipulation, reintegration, and a future expansion to reach these true objectives, particularly the enormous gap on the CME, is expected. There is clear interest in recovering the $80,500-$84,800 gap zone during this second quarter. The implication is that as long as this gap remains unfilled, any dips present buying opportunities for continuation. This is in terms of swing trading; for long-term investment, current price levels are fundamentally acceptable but technically still a bit expensive. Technically, more attractive prices for long-term recharges are in the $57,000-$38,000 range, which could still be reached in several months. However, the current factual movement is bullish, and speculation should align with this trend, aiming to address the fair value gap zones, theoretically between $80,000 and $88,000, during this second quarter. This is currently what the market is doing. A quick review of other markets shows that the Dow Jones is still consolidating. A new all-time high (ATH) is expected in the coming days/weeks, barring any geopolitical shifts. The last fair value zone is currently being respected and might be retested next week, but it's holding well, indicating continuation. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hit new ATHs on Friday, suggesting positive trends for US indices. The Dow Jones, being the only index yet to make an ATH, is a key indicator for continued upward movement. The dollar has filled its fair value gap and is currently being rejected, maintaining a bearish dynamic with no signs of reversal. Oil has broken its daily fair value gap but also remains in a bearish dynamic, having filled its last fair value gap in the 12-hour timeframe. There are no signs of inversion or a break from its current range. It appears to be entering a new range, which is not currently impacting US indices. A resolution of this range, however, would likely have a significant impact on indices. For now, the market flow remains unchanged: bearish for the dollar and oil, bullish for indices. Therefore, Bitcoin should correlate with indices and maintain a bullish flow, with the mentioned gaps as objectives. Short-term movements are not of interest; a potential clean-up of the consolidation zone to the south before continuing higher would be more significant. Ethereum is currently weaker than Bitcoin, a trend expected to continue this quarter. After taking the March highs within the monthly fair value gap, a market structure shift indicates that ETH/BTC is confirming a bearish trend for the quarter, meaning Ethereum will underperform Bitcoin. While ETH might try to regain ground later in the quarter or during Bitcoin's consolidation, it is theoretically expected to be weaker than BTC, as seen in the price action where Bitcoin is at its highs while Ethereum is not. The objectives for Ethereum remain higher, particularly the large monthly fair value gap, which is expected to be reached. The daily fair value gap on the CME for Ethereum is also maintained, signaling continuation. As long as this fair value gap zone is maintained, a continuation movement is expected. While weaker than BTC, this doesn't imply a decline but rather slower performance or a lag, as seen in its current contraction. This contraction suggests an upcoming resumption of volatility. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum is expected to address the CME gap, which is quite open, roughly between $2,400 and $2,700. This gap is expected to be filled during the second quarter, followed by continued gradual movement. The next quarter will determine whether there's further continuation, consolidation, or reversal, which will also depend on the flow of other markets.