Le RALLY des INDICES PAS TERMINÉ ? (ça explose)

This analysis focuses on the current state of American indices, particularly the Dow Jones, and provides insights into gold, the euro-dollar, the dollar, and oil. The speaker begins by highlighting that the Dow Jones is the only major index yet to reach an All-Time High (ATH), with the Nasdaq, SP500, and Russell having all achieved new peaks recently. For the Dow Jones, the next theoretical target is identified at 50,146 points, specifically a "buy side" at 51,650, which also represents the peak of February. Further targets include the Q1 high. The speaker believes that the Dow Jones is clearly heading towards a new ATH, needing approximately 2.3% more progression. This potential movement suggests that the rally in American indices may not be over, with the Nasdaq and SP500 likely to continue their ascent. The price action for the Dow Jones is described as "very clean," indicating continuation and potential for new ATHs, possibly even extending to 161.8% to 200% Fibonacci extensions, which would place it at 54,000 to 56,000 points by 2026. The presence of a "breaker" and a "double breaker," followed by a retest of a "fair value gap," further supports the continuation hypothesis. While acknowledging the possibility of turbulence, the speaker emphasizes the current strength of the indices, noting the price's resilience in overcoming a gap and its current upward momentum. The expectation is that the Dow Jones will lead the Nasdaq and SP500 to new highs. Shifting to oil, an interesting development is observed following a "cell side" retest. There's a notable rebound and a gap being filled. The speaker points out a potential re-accumulation phase that could lead to a bullish continuation, depending on geopolitical events. The formation of a "breaker" after the gap is filled could signal further continuation and potentially trigger a retracement in indices, especially after the Dow Jones hits its ATH. The overall daily trend for oil remains bearish, characterized by successive "fair value gaps" and bearish continuations. However, the hourly chart shows a "fair value gap" zone that is currently intact and supporting the price, warranting caution for hourly trading. Regarding the dollar, the overall trend remains bearish, with a "fair value gap" currently holding. If this gap is broken, it could signal a return to previous lows, possibly within this or the next quarter. The upcoming announcement from the new Federal Reserve Chairman is also a crucial factor, as any indication of a pro-low interest rate stance could negatively impact the dollar. The speaker believes the dollar has formed its top and will likely remain in a long-term range. The long-term bottom for the dollar is thought to be within a specific "fair value gap" zone, and while it's an unconventional view, the speaker expects a future continuation of the dollar's upward trend, which would be invalidated if the annual "fair value gap" is lost. A potential retest of the 2025 lows is also considered, but this would require breaking the weekly "fair value gap." The current liquidity grab, however, supports a bearish flow that has not yet reversed. For the euro-dollar, a rejection at the March high is noted, but the last "fair value gap" is maintained. A retracement to lower levels is possible if the dollar index decides to retrace. The speaker reiterates the belief that the dollar has topped out and will likely trade within a range. In terms of trading strategies for indices, the speaker advises taking long positions and securing profits if already long, emphasizing that "long" positions are currently more profitable than shorting the market due to strong momentum. For intraday trading, a potential "cleanup" of the H12 "fair value gap" is identified as the only current opportunity, which could lead to a continuation, especially if there's a "stress move" during the US open in that zone. This setup is also observed on the SP500. Finally, for gold, the situation is described as complex. The daily "fair value gap" is holding, suggesting continued upward speculation to fill previous gaps. A recent liquidity grab on Monday led to a rebound, but nothing extraordinary. The speaker cautiously suggests that this could be the beginning of a reversal, given the liquidity grab and subsequent rejection from a key zone. However, no clear "breaker" signals are present. As long as the market maintains its "fair value gap," the bullish flow remains intact, and gold could continue towards the OTE zone and fill more gaps. The speaker advises against long positions in the middle of nowhere, highlighting the area below Friday's low as a point of interest. A retest of last week's low is possible if the "fair value gap" is lost, although the previous hunt for that low was very slight, making it a potential revisit zone for continuation. The weekly "fair value gap" is currently being worked around its median threshold, creating a battleground for prices. The speaker concludes by recommending against trading gold in these price zones for now.