BlackRock bloque 600 millions de dollars. C'est inquiétant ?

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with over $13.5 trillion under management, has recently "gated" its private credit fund. This means the firm has temporarily locked the doors on withdrawals, preventing investors from reclaiming approximately $600 million. While such a move often triggers headlines about systemic crises and financial panic, a closer look at the transcript reveals that this situation is driven more by technical and regulatory factors than by a simple lack of confidence. To understand why this is happening, one must distinguish between how different assets are valued. Traditional stocks are "mark-to-market," meaning their value is updated instantly based on liquid trading. Private credit, however, uses "mark-to-model" valuations, which are typically calculated mathematically once per quarter. When the broader stock market drops significantly, private credit valuations often lag behind. Institutional investors, aware of this delay, often rush to withdraw their funds before the model eventually adjusts downward to reflect economic reality. A primary driver of this withdrawal surge is the "denominator effect." Regulated funds often maintain specific allocations, such as 20% in private credit and 80% in liquid assets. When the value of liquid assets drops during a market correction, the private credit portion mechanically becomes a larger percentage of the total portfolio—perhaps rising to 30%. To return to their mandatory regulatory limits, these institutions are forced to sell their private credit holdings. This is a structural constraint rather than a sign of genuine distrust in BlackRock. BlackRock is not alone in this struggle. Blackstone recently had to inject $400 million of its own capital to meet redemption requests, and Blue Owl has issued IOUs instead of cash refunds. This simultaneous pressure on the world's three largest asset managers highlights a broader trend in the private credit sector. A significant emerging risk involves Artificial Intelligence. Between 2023 and 2024, a large portion of private credit was funneled into software companies. While these companies appeared solid at the time, many are now seeing their business models threatened or rendered obsolete by rapid advancements in AI. This creates a "recovery rate" problem. Normally, these loans are sold with the expectation of recovering 70-80% of the value in the event of a default. However, if a company’s primary asset—its software—is obsolete, the recovery might drop to 40 cents on the dollar, assuming a buyer can even be found. Finally, the transcript points to the "spread" as the ultimate red flag. Investors can choose between liquid high-yield bonds or illiquid private credit. Because private credit locks up capital for years, it should offer a higher return to compensate for that risk. Currently, the gap between these two returns is narrowing. When the risk is no longer being adequately rewarded, it serves as a major alarm signal for the global financial market. While there is no need for immediate panic, the closing of these "gates" is a technical alert that warrants close monitoring as the private credit market catches up to the reality of the current economic landscape.