🏡 Ce que votre banquier ne dit pas sur l'immobilier...

A recent email from a banker, titled "Spring of Real Estate," revealed surprisingly low loan rates starting at 3.05% over 20 years. This is unexpected given ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy crises, which typically drive interest rates up, as seen in 2022 when the ECB hiked rates from 0% to 4.5%. Despite these conditions, banks are lending at an average of 3.20% over 20 years. This phenomenon, dubbed "Spring of Real Estate," marks the traditional period from late March to September when real estate projects accelerate, allowing banks to meet annual targets. After three years of disappointing results, banks are keen to capitalize on this period in 2026. This trend presents an opportunity for those with real estate projects. The video will explain the banks' strategy, the duration of this favorable period, and provide a health check of the French real estate market, including professional expectations and potential impacts on personal projects and assets. Before diving deeper, the video introduces Imoscan, a tool for real estate investment in France and overseas. Imoscan aims to help users find the top 0.1% of real estate listings and secure financing. It analyzes over 800 listing sites in real-time, provides detailed property analyses, offers access to six expert masterclasses, and connects users with an investor community and dedicated advisors. A lifetime license is currently available with a 30-day money-back guarantee. A discount coupon, "Moni Radar," is offered for a limited time. The current loan rates are 3.05% for 15 years, 3.26% for 20 years, and 3.40% for 25 years. Most banks are not exceeding 3.5% for 20-year loans. This is significant because it means individuals can borrow at better rates than the French government, which finances itself at 3.65% to 3.70% over 10 years, a rate influenced by geopolitical instability and France’s recent credit rating downgrade. The OAT 10-year rate, which is the 10-year government bond yield, typically guides bank lending rates. However, this year, banks are absorbing the shock by cutting into their margins, limiting rate increases to 5-15 centimes. This strategy is highly strategic for banks. Mortgage loans are a "loss leader," attracting clients for long-term relationships (20-25 years), enabling banks to cross-sell other high-value products like current accounts, savings accounts, cards, and various insurance policies. Real estate loans also constitute over a quarter of the revenue for the five largest French banks. During the post-COVID boom, they distributed €266 billion in mortgage loans, averaging €207,000 over 20 years and 7 months, double the pre-crisis volume. Activity slowed in 2023-2024 but picked up when property prices stabilized after a nearly 5% national correction (10% in Paris, 8.5% in the inner suburbs). In spring 2025, loan volumes jumped 33%, with first-time buyers returning. A year later, they represent over half of new applications, and banks want to maintain this momentum. The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its key interest rates on March 19, signaling to banks that they could also keep their rates stable for the current quarter. While buyers are not as numerous as in 2021, their numbers are growing. The supply remains somewhat limited, and prices are largely stable, fluctuating between -0.2% and +0.5% nationally in the first quarter of 2026. Transaction volumes are estimated at 950,000 this year, similar to 2025, which, while below 2021 records, is still higher than the 800,000 annual sales between 2000 and 2018. City-wise, Paris prices are stable around €9,700-€9,900 per square meter, suggesting the correction from 2023 has ended. Marseille and Toulouse show slight increases (+0.1%), Bordeaux and Lille are slightly better (+0.3%), Lyon is still declining slightly, and Rennes has seen a significant drop (-1.7%). The most expensive streets in major French cities, such as Avenue Montaigne in Paris, can reach nearly €24,000 per square meter, while in cities like Bourges or Limoges, the most expensive streets don't exceed €2,500. This covers the existing property market, which accounts for over 80% of sales. The new build market tells a less optimistic story, experiencing a post-COVID depression not seen since the early 1990s. In 2025, 365,000 building permits were issued, 22% fewer than before the crisis. Developers