Pourquoi les RECORDS en bourse doivent vous inquiéter

This video discusses the current state of financial markets, addressing concerns about their seemingly complacent rise despite macroeconomic questions, and the potential for a "return to the mean." It outlines four scenarios previously discussed: continued stagflation, a rally before a correction, continued growth without recession driven by factors like interest rate cuts and AI, and the risk of AI investments encountering bottlenecks. The third scenario, continued growth, is currently playing out. This involves potential interest rate cuts, possibly influenced by political figures like Trump, which would raise questions about the independence of central banks. Another key aspect is the dynamism of AI. The question is whether current AI investments will yield productivity gains and profits, or if bottlenecks in infrastructure, energy, memory, and hardware will limit growth and expected profits, potentially causing a market downturn. The market might use these bottlenecks as a pretext to decline later, even if they initially drive up prices for certain companies. Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests a shift from GPU to CPU demand, explaining the rise of companies like AMD and other semiconductor firms. This indicates a resurgence driven by "GAFAM" companies (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft) and AI speculation. The critical question is whether this industrial ramp-up can be successfully executed without errors or misallocation of capital, as such issues could trigger a market correction. Capgemini's report also points to this ramp-up, driven by geopolitical necessities to diversify supply chains and industries. The return of industrials and value stocks, outperforming other rotations, was an anticipated development. The market's resilience is partly attributed to existing reserves, with Europe perhaps being an exception. As long as corporate profit growth is not challenged, the market continues its significant ramp-up, justifying current valuations and encouraging buying on dips. A potential shift in narrative would occur if the ramp-up starts hindering future growth and profits, leading to revised margins, or if CEOs begin reporting issues like high energy costs or memory shortages. Currently, the market tends to buy on dips, even on bad news, as long as the narrative remains positive. A change in narrative, however, could lead to the same news being sold off. Political factors, especially Trump's actions, could influence market dynamics. His focus on his electoral base might lead to efforts to lower oil prices and inflation, and address topics like cannabis and cryptocurrencies. A significant dislocation exists between the S&P 500, heavily weighted towards technology stocks that are service-oriented, and the underlying US economy, which shows "cracks" but remains resilient. This resilience suggests no immediate need for interest rate cuts, yet a new Fed chair appointed by Trump might favor them, potentially leading to one or two cuts. If Trump loses the midterm elections, the new Fed chair, traditionally a hawk concerned about inflation, might assert more independence, potentially shifting market dynamics. The video draws a parallel between the gold market and certain large-cap stocks. Gold, despite its size, has a very limited "real float" (physically available for trading) due to much of it being in jewelry, held by long-term investors, or central banks. This illiquidity can lead to significant price swings with relatively small trading volumes. Similarly, large companies like LVMH or Hermes, with market capitalizations in the trillions, often have a very small percentage of their shares truly available for trading (free float) after accounting for family holdings, institutional investors, and stock buybacks. This concentration of ownership and reduced float increases volatility, allowing relatively small movements of capital to have a disproportionate impact on market capitalization and indices. This trend of fewer companies and fewer available shares driving stock indices has been building over the past 15 years. Upcoming earnings reports from Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon will be crucial. While results are expected to be decent, the market's reaction will hinge on whether free cash flows continue to cover massive AI investments and if confidence in future profits holds. If these companies need to take on more debt at high interest rates for future data centers and investments, it could become a problem in a crisis. The current narrative is positive, but it could easily shift. The Nasdaq's current highs are not solely due to GAFAMs reaching new peaks but also due to a rotation into smaller-cap stocks. This broader participation makes the current rally more robust than previous ones. The GAFAMs have corrected and then rebounded, contributing to the Nasdaq's new highs. The Q1 earnings calls will be watched for any mention of energy impact or other cost pressures, which could become more prominent in Q2 if geopolitical tensions escalate. Regarding oil, despite the Iran situation, increased production capacity from the US, Canada, and Latin America helps compensate. Historically, oil shocks also accelerate investment in renewables and nuclear energy, reducing long-term oil demand, even if oil remains crucial for years. This investment in energy sovereignty continues even in countries like the US, despite political leanings. The software sector, often facing disruption from AI, may find support from insider buying, the fact that AI won't destroy all businesses overnight, and companies' large cash reserves facilitating M&A and share buybacks. Share buybacks, like those seen at Adobe, reduce the free float, increasing volatility and the impact of large capital movements. The current market highs reflect a dichotomy: while many struggle with inflation, a wealthy segment benefits from high asset prices and stable, high incomes. This segment's continued consumption and investment maintain market momentum. Similarly, within corporations, a handful of companies, largely driven by AI, are responsible for the bulk of future profit growth estimates, masking the struggles of many other businesses. This reliance on a few key players makes the market vulnerable if the AI narrative falters. Micron Technology, for instance, accounts for over half of 2026 consensus revisions. The market anticipates continued exceptional profits into 2026. A significant correction would only occur if this expectation is challenged. While AI is a transformative force comparable to past industrial revolutions, it operates in a more geopoliticized world with supply chain risks and inflationary pressures. Fiscal deficits persist, and central banks, despite expressing readiness to raise rates if inflation continues, may lack the means, especially in Europe where economies are stagnating. The European Central Bank should consider lowering rates if the dollar weakens and the US economy doesn't need rate cuts, to stimulate European growth. Regarding interest rates, the pace of change is more critical than the absolute level. Rapid rate changes, either up or down, could signal recession or prolonged stagflation, negatively impacting stocks. Gradual adjustments, however, would be favorable. Oil prices remain a concern, with potential for escalation if prices break above $110 a barrel, possibly triggering a "panic mode" in the market. A sustained drop below $80-$70 would be needed to consider the issue resolved, though a sharp decline could also create economic problems in the Middle East. Volatility in oil prices, in either direction, is problematic. The dollar is at a pivot point. A continued weakening of the dollar could prompt the ECB to cut rates to protect European exporters. Conversely, a strengthening dollar, especially if it breaks below 116 against the euro, could signal renewed market fear and a shift towards defensive assets like bonds. European indices, like the CAC 40, are also at a pivot point, indicating uncertainty, unlike the Nasdaq which reflects an "all-time best" scenario driven by strong semiconductor and AI flows. A pullback on the CAC 40 to the 8000-8200 range would be a logical correction, but a break below that would signal weakness. For the American markets, particularly the Nasdaq, a significant bearish reversal is not expected unless the index falls below the 25500 gap zone. Corrections within the current upward trend are normal and could be seen as buying opportunities. The current rally is exponential and bullish, with 26100-26200 likely acting as support. A break below 25500 would suggest overextension and potential weakness, possibly linked to the industrial ramp-up questions. The market narrative is strong, but subtle signs of change exist. It's crucial not to anticipate a narrative shift but to have hypotheses ready so that when the market changes, one is prepared to act thoughtfully rather than react in panic.