NQ Dec Futures September FOMC Trade Review

The speaker analyzes Nasdaq's September 2026 FOMC trading, focusing on daily and one-minute charts. They highlight Monday and Tuesday’s highs and lows, noting that prior to Wednesday’s FOMC, the market had not traded above Tuesday’s or Monday’s highs, nor below their respective daily lows. This created "inside days back-to-back," indicating a potential for a large range expansion, which the speaker predicted yesterday at 9:21 a.m. The analysis emphasizes the importance of a "daily suspension block" and an "inversion fair value gap" in post-FOMC trading. The speaker demonstrates how the market pierced Tuesday’s daily high and rallied back above it, then used an inefficiency that formed prior to that as an inversion fair value gap. They point out a volume imbalance between candlesticks, which was drawn on their recorded execution posted on X. The speaker recounts their trade, making $33,800, despite technical issues with screen recording. They emphasize not caring about doubters as the profit is real. The market traded into the inversion fair value gap, which led to a move down into the daily suspension block, ultimately taking out Monday’s low. The speaker took partial profits earlier, not reaching for Monday's low due to it being the first FOMC with a new Fed chair and expecting more volatility. They illustrate how they projected swing levels, noting that while the market approached the low, it didn't fully reach it. The speaker explains that these calculations, done on their phone, indicated the market's intent to reach the daily suspension block and ultimately Monday's low after clearing Tuesday's high and failing to go back above it with an inversion fair value gap. The speaker notes their initial entry was at 29,483.25 and 29,483.75 for three contracts. They took profit when the market broke lower, utilizing the blue-shaded area as a daily bullish suspension block. The trade was manually closed when it reached a worthy level, missing a small piece of the move before the market rallied back up to take out Monday's high. The speaker believes the "sweet spot entry" for FOMC trading is typically between 2:40 and 2:50 p.m. Eastern time, noting their entry was at 2:43.