Bitcoin's Real Cycle: Dec '24 Top, Feb '26 Bottom

The speaker challenges the common assumption that Bitcoin's cycle top will occur in October 2025, suggesting an earlier peak in December 2024 or January 2025. By aligning cycle lows from February, previous cycle bands align more smoothly, indicating a potential peak earlier than most anticipate. This alignment suggests a traditional bear market could unfold sooner. This perspective is supported by several factors. The current move up in Bitcoin is different from previous cycles, partly due to significant spot ETF inflows and MicroStrategy's accumulation during the bear market. Aligning cycle tops from the January 7th event also shows this bear market is "massively different." Other analysts, like Checkmate, agree with an earlier top, drawing parallels to April 2017 versus November. The "on top," which signifies maximum realized profit coin day destruction, is argued to have occurred in December 2024 and February-March 2021, suggesting subsequent rallies were merely "last gasps of hope." The ramifications of an earlier top are significant, as many expect another massive leg down of 30-50% before a bottom forms in late 2025. However, the speaker points to the business cycle as a crucial factor. ISM PMI manufacturing has been in expansion for three consecutive months, a stark contrast to previous cycles where Bitcoin never made a new all-time high during business cycle contraction. This time, Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high during a contraction, indicating a departure from historical patterns. Experts like Decoder and TechDev have long argued for an elongated business cycle that, once moving into expansion, would trigger a significant Bitcoin run. Further evidence comes from the Bitcoin gold cross, which traditionally points to a bear market. The speaker suggests that if Bitcoin peaked in December 2024/January 2025, the subsequent leg down was the bear market, followed by a move up that has since faded. This occurred while gold entered a massive super cycle. Historically, Bitcoin gold bear markets see a bottom and then a retest before moving into bull runs. Examining spot ETF flows, a decrease was observed from January through March/April, followed by a massive 33% increase, adding over $20 billion and pushing Bitcoin to new all-time highs in what would normally be a bear leg. This suggests the "last leg" people are expecting may have already occurred. The S&P 500 is also showing a "massive ascent," despite initial fears related to oil prices. The channel breakout on the S&P 500, going back to the roaring 20s, has been retested and is resuming upward. While a break below certain technical levels could signal a breakdown, the current trajectory is strongly bullish. Market sentiment indicators show increasing bearishness despite stocks pushing to all-time highs, a classic "lockout rally" condition. Additionally, the current earnings season is one of the best in 20 years, with all 11 top-level sectors expected to show year-over-year earnings growth for the first time in four years. This points to re-acceleration rather than recession. The market appears cheap based on the PEG ratio, suggesting strong earning growth expectations for the 2020s and early 2030s. The explosive growth of AI and LLM models is also highlighted, with token usage increasing significantly. This growth is expected to continue, driving up costs for users and builders, especially with the introduction of more autonomous agents. The speaker compares the current AI boom to Netscape during the dot-com era, suggesting similar massive growth trajectories. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway holding 30% cash is questioned, as it's underperforming in the current market and not keeping pace with inflation. While it would look smart in a crash, it could be a significant blunder if the "roaring 2020s" continue. Looking ahead, seasonalities suggest a move up in June and July, potentially reaching around $90,000. Many also believe 2027 will be an explosive year due to the ongoing AI build-out. However, warning signs like pullbacks in CapEx spending and the enormous scale of planned data centers raise questions about peak build-out and energy sourcing.