ALERTE BITCOIN ! 🚨 TRUMP A CASSÉ LES MARCHÉS ! Encore..

A disagreement between the United States and Iran has triggered a bearish movement in the markets, particularly for indices and Bitcoin, while causing a very bullish movement in oil prices. This update will focus on key levels for Bitcoin and what to monitor in price action to determine if a genuine bearish reversal is underway. Before delving into the market analysis, it's important to mention a partnership with Wix, offering VIP access, mentorship, and code reports. The mentorship is described as the most comprehensive training, covering a trading strategy from A to Z. All courses are available for free by registering through the provided partner link, which is the first pinned comment. It's mandatory to use this link to be eligible. Active Wix account users can benefit from these offerings by clicking the second link and filling out a form. The form requires an email and Wix ID, after which a Discord link opens. Joining the Discord and using the command "/f affiliation Wix" with the UID links the Wix account to Discord, granting access to VIP crypto, code reports, and mentorship. A quick example of the code report from two Fridays ago (not the most recent) reveals a detailed market plan. For instance, it showed that on April 3rd, institutions were closing their shorts and going long on the SP500, indicating a clear bullish trend despite geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran. For gold, open interest was decreasing. However, the primary focus is Bitcoin, where the report indicates institutional actions—whether they are going long or short—to help predict market probabilities and establish the correct bias. This information is a significant advantage for VIP members. Regarding Bitcoin and the news, the lack of a deal between the United States and Iran was highly anticipated. Analysis conducted with artificial intelligence, which processed various news and events to generate probabilities, consistently indicated a low chance of an agreement within two weeks. Specifically, probabilities suggested less than 10% chance of a deal, 40% chance of a ceasefire extension, and over 50% chance of no agreement, leading to a return to the previous state. The market is now moving in line with this latter scenario. It is likely that President Trump, who closely monitors the markets, will continue to exert pressure on Iran as long as markets are stable. His goal is not for markets to collapse. If markets decline too sharply, he might return to negotiations, using strong rhetoric but ultimately prioritizing market stability and preventing oil prices from skyrocketing, as he faces pressure from financial institutions. The speaker notes that presidential interests often align more with billionaires, whose wealth is tied to rising markets, rather than the general populace. Bitcoin, being an illiquid environment, sees order books being emptied. The market's interest lies in liquidating crowded positions and finding equilibrium zones. The "fair value gap" has been filled. On the daily chart, the last zone that needs to break for Bitcoin to reach $76,000 is currently acting as a potential top. With the news of no deal, a significant rejection occurred, and Bitcoin is expected to revisit the inefficiencies (fair value gaps) it left behind. The logical zone for this is between $70,300 and $69,200. On the hourly chart, this corresponds to several fair value gaps. The expectation is to retest these lower levels, as a "relative equal" was formed, indicating that the zone has not been purged, and it is likely to be revisited. Drawing a Fibonacci retracement shows Bitcoin is currently at the 38.2% level, which is an interesting point for a bullish continuation. If this level breaks, the price could seek the 61.8% level, re-working all bullish impulses to fill the fair value gaps. The key for Bitcoin is to form a higher low to attempt a new higher high. This week, the focus will be on whether a geopolitical agreement or positive development emerges within this price zone. Currently, on derivatives markets, there's no significant shorting activity. Open interest is falling, meaning both buyers and short-sellers are exiting positions. This suggests a lack of interest in Bitcoin's rebounds from institutions or other large players, implying that interest might be found in the aforementioned impulse zones. If the price descends and people start shorting, any agreement or positive news could quickly reverse the price. However, if nothing happens in this price zone—tensions persist, and open interest shows no demand—the market might accelerate downwards to liquidate lower levels. Potential targets include last week's low of $67,691 or last month's low of $64,800. This could indicate that the current level is a potential top, where the weekly fair value gap has been filled, the daily fair value gap is being closed, and a bearish movement towards $64,000 is resuming. Whether this scenario unfolds remains uncertain, but the focus is on the price action within the identified zone. For a continuation, a higher low needs to form around these zones or potentially near last week's low of $67,700. A break below $60,000, specifically the previous low, would confirm a bearish continuation towards $62,000, $59,800, and $58,900. As long as the current low is maintained, Bitcoin is still in an environment of higher lows and higher highs. The recent liquidity grab has not yet triggered a higher high but could be its purpose. Bitcoin and Nasdaq are perfectly correlated. The Nasdaq also experienced a significant gap down after the news, and it is currently retracing, indicating Bitcoin's desire to revisit its impulse zones. For U.S. indices, it's believed that buyers might re-emerge in these impulse zones to push prices higher. The major reversal points for a bearish trend have not yet been reached for indices, suggesting potential for further upside despite the negative news. Ethereum's situation is similar to Bitcoin's. It has filled its fair value gaps, experienced a liquidity grab, and a breaker marked the inversion. Price zones for Ethereum to reclaim are above $2,155, specifically the fair value gap between $2,155 and $2,133. If this holds, it could revisit higher peaks. If it falls below $2,090, it is likely to target all previous lows, moving towards $1,905, which would signal a reversal to address all past lows (weekly, monthly, etc.). Oil prices have maintained their fair value gap and are re-working bearish fair value gaps. An unfilled liquidity grab at the $118 peaks represents a potential target if no agreement is reached. Further attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf could exacerbate inflationary pressures, which is problematic for markets. The probability of interest rate cuts this year has dropped to 14%, with expectations for cuts now pushed to September, which is not positive for the overall market. Renewed bombardments of infrastructure would be the worst-case scenario.