
🚨ALERTE BITCOIN ! ÇA VA SECOUER MAIS C'EST UN PIÈGE !
Audio Summary
AI Summary
Bitcoin is currently diverging from US indices, suggesting a potential retracement. The speaker is analyzing market conditions, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. They mention access to free resources like a report, mentorship, and a VIP Discord channel, requiring affiliation with Wix and activity on the platform. A tutorial for Wix is available on the channel, and users need to fill out a form to get access.
Focusing on Bitcoin, the speaker notes a divergence with the Nasdaq, which is consolidating while Bitcoin is retracing. This indicates Bitcoin is underperforming the Nasdaq and likely to retrace. The immediate target is to revisit yesterday's low, and then potentially work on the previous fair value gap, possibly around $80,000 on CME futures, though the perpetual market might show a different figure like $79,700. Deeper retracement could go down to $76,700. Despite this, the speaker maintains a "buy the dip" sentiment, as long as the CME gap up to $85,300 (or $84,500 on perpetuals considering the spread) remains unfilled. They don't believe the market is topping out.
The previous impulse wave's reload zone aligns with the daily fair value gap, suggesting dips are buying opportunities to fill the CME gap. The market is not showing significant selling pressure on spot; rather, derivative positions are being closed, suggesting profit-taking rather than forced liquidations. ETF inflows have slowed, with only $46 million noted recently, which might justify the current Bitcoin retracement.
Globally, the Nasdaq remains bullish, and the Dow Jones reacted well in its identified discount zone. The speaker anticipates further index growth, especially before the Dow Jones hits a new all-time high. Oil prices dropped significantly due to news about the Strait of Hormuz, but the speaker believes a key level has been reached and is watching for price reactions. Lower oil prices are theoretically good for risk assets, but the market has largely priced in a US-Iran deal. The speaker warns that the announcement of such a deal could lead to a local top or retracement.
The dollar is bearish, heading towards its April low. Overall, the trend remains positive for risk assets, with dips offering opportunities. Volatility is historically low, which is unusual but expected to return. This low volatility contributes to a persistent pessimistic sentiment, as people question the market's upward movement in the current context. However, institutions are positioning themselves to buy, indicating an ongoing buyer-driven flow.
Ethereum is showing divergence with Bitcoin and is underperforming. The speaker identifies $2291-$2278 as key zones to watch for Ethereum. They note that while Ethereum might be in a bearish quarter against BTC, it's not necessarily bearish against the dollar. The ETH/BTC chart shows signs of a bearish market structure, with an objective to reclaim Q1 lows. This underperformance in ETH/BTC contributes to Ethereum's weakness against the dollar.
The speaker believes neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum has topped out and expects them to fill their respective gaps in Q2. Bitcoin's CME gap extends to $85,300, and Ethereum's to around $2700. These gaps are significant and likely to be filled. The CME crypto market will trade 24/7 from May 29th, which might impact these gap dynamics.
The overall bias for Q2 remains bullish, with higher targets to fill gaps. Dips are seen as opportunities to position for further upside, but caution is advised for those unsure of their strategies. For spot investors, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are considered fundamentally sound for the long term, though technically, Bitcoin might be considered a bit expensive for buying. The current upward movement is expected to continue with higher lows and higher highs until a dynamic shift potentially occurs later in the year.