BITCOIN BIENTÔT $80,000 !! MAIS ATTENTION ! (Le marché comprend que Trump ment)

Bitcoin has reached a significantly important level, nearing $80,000. The market is slowly starting to re-price the possibility that Trump might be misleading. We will also quickly analyze oil, American indices, and provide an update on the dollar. Before diving in, access to Wig is still available for free. This includes access to the code report, mentorship, and VIP Discord. The first link in the pinned comment leads to registration through our partner link and requires active participation on the platform. A tutorial on how to use the platform is also available. The second link is a form to fill out to retrieve access. After clicking "obtain my access," entering your email and Wix ID, and submitting the request, the Discord link will appear. Clicking it will lead to the Discord server where you can type `/AF`, select "affiliation Wix," enter your UID, and press enter. This links your Discord to your Wix account. Active users will unlock VIP Crypto channels, receive mentorship via email, and get the market review code report, which details institutional market positioning. Regarding Bitcoin (BTC), an analysis of the perpetual contract and CME shows that targets are being met. The market often moves counter to the previous trend, as seen when monthly peaks lead to red candles. The monthly fair value gap at $79,400, corresponding to February's peak, has been retested. The question of whether the top is in is premature, as the overall trend remains bullish. Retracements are normal given the increase in open interest, indicating both long and short positions. While funding rates might suggest a majority of shorts, this is an oversimplification. Funding primarily indicates strong demand on the spot market, as evidenced by the greater CVD difference on spot compared to perpetuals. The movement remains healthy as long as funding and open interest aren't excessively high, which would suggest demand is coming solely from derivatives rather than the spot market. Currently, the spot market is still very active with buyers. However, pullbacks are occurring due to profit-taking on the spot side and the liquidation of some derivative traders who went long yesterday. The market is rebalancing fair value zones. Given the previous impulse left many fair value gaps, the market could retrace to hunt for Wednesday's low, around $76,000. Anything below $76,000 is considered a zone for forming bullish continuation. The expectation is for continued upward movement. While geopolitical factors, particularly involving Iran and the United States, need attention, the current quarter is bullish, aligning with a "bullish Q2" scenario rather than a "bearish Q2." This second quarter is expected to rebalance the fair value gap zone. The exact extent is uncertain, but it's the anticipated function of Q2, which ends in late June. A bearish Q2 scenario, leading to a definitive top, is possible but not the most probable unless geopolitical tensions escalate significantly, which isn't currently the case. However, the market is slowly starting to price in the ongoing conflict and its potential resurgence. If the second quarter remains bullish, as market signals currently suggest, the current movement, initiated by a liquidity grab, reduces the probability of a bearish Q2. The liquidity grab at the end of the previous quarter, followed by a breaker formation, points to a bullish quarter. This provides ample time to re-work these fair value gap zones. The overall sentiment still appears bearish, which leaves room for further upside. An interesting question posed on Discord concerns whether the $60,000 level is the definitive bottom. While the price is rebounding, this doesn't necessarily confirm a definitive bottom. The speaker personally doesn't believe it's the definitive bottom. From a technical perspective, looking at the volume profile, a larger gap in the profile, ideally below $48,000, seems more likely to form a bottom zone. However, Bitcoin can behave unpredictably. As long as the prevailing sentiment is that the current upward movement isn't real, the price is likely to create and sustain dips, continuing to seek higher levels to fill fair value gaps and potentially the CME gap. A psychological switch where people become convinced the bottom is in and Bitcoin won't fall further could paradoxically trigger a bearish reversal. The current pessimistic sentiment, driven by the belief that conflicts should cause markets to fall, is likely misplaced. Historical data, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and even World War II, shows that markets can perform strongly despite ongoing conflicts. Therefore, it's crucial to rely on technical analysis, which currently indicates a bullish second quarter. As long as this holds, dips present opportunities for further upside to rebalance previously left-behind zones, particularly on the CME. The large CME gap, still unfilled, is a key target, extending to $84,000-$85,000, and even up to $89,000 for other fair value gaps. This zone is expected to be worked on during Q2. This doesn't imply a straight upward trajectory; the market may take its time before either reversing in the next quarter or continuing its upward movement. In the short term, on the perpetual contract, previous fair value gaps are being re-worked. On the CME, the current stopping point seems arbitrary, suggesting it's not a top. The previous impulse, initiated by a liquidity grab, indicates that this week's low will likely be protected, possibly retracing to the previous movement's re-charging zone around $76,100 on the perpetual market. A re-pricing of all fair value gaps before continuing the dynamic is possible. The last low that broke the previous high is here, making it a protected low. A deeper retrace to $74,700 is possible if selling pressure is strong, but the primary idea is rebalancing, particularly the breaker zone and associated fair value gaps. A retracement to these fair value gaps, or even just below the previous low, could precede further bullish continuation to address the larger fair value gap and potentially fill the CME gap this quarter. However, caution is advised. While indices currently show no bearish shift, the market is increasingly re-pricing the possibility that Trump's negotiations with Iran might not be genuine. Oil's continued push, despite filling the daily fair value, suggests no resolution yet. If oil breaks through this daily fair value gap, it would be a strong signal for prices to move higher, potentially above $100. This is not positive, as rising oil prices, coupled with skepticism about Trump, could mean prolonged inflation and a delay in interest rate cuts. Probabilities of rate cuts this year have dropped to 27%, a critical data point to monitor as lower probabilities could trigger retracements in risk assets like Bitcoin and US indices. On the other hand, US indices show no bearish signs. As long as the Dow Jones hasn't reached its All-Time High (ATH), there's room for growth. Indices might clean out relative lows to fill daily fair value gaps before continuing their ascent to the Dow Jones' ATH. This could involve consolidation, manipulation, and then an expansion phase. If indices experience stress, Bitcoin will likely follow a similar retracement pattern to its previous impulse. Currently, the flow is positive, with strong spot buyers. Inflows are increasing, and outflows are decreasing, indicating clear demand on the spot market. Stablecoin printing also shows money returning, supporting prices, although not enough to fuel a massive bull run or significantly boost altcoins. Ethereum (ETH) also has similar fair value gaps to fill in Q2. While it's currently diverging and weaker than Bitcoin, as discussed in a previous ETHBTC analysis, this is considered normal. ETH stopped short of key fair value gap objectives, suggesting further upside is likely. On the CME futures, as long as the daily fair value gap is respected, there's no major concern for ETH, and it's expected to move higher to fill its gap, potentially reaching $2,660. The CME gap here has been perfectly filled, and a small cleanup of last week's low around $2,184 or $2,250 on the CME could precede further upward movement, aligning with the bullish Q2 scenario. This outlook holds unless the dynamic reverses, or geopolitical tensions escalate significantly, leading to an explosion in oil and the dollar, and increased probabilities of rate hikes—a scenario not yet present but slowly being priced in as the market anticipates a longer path to any real agreement, or even a potential re-escalation. This is what needs to be monitored with oil. This concludes the analysis for today. If you enjoyed it, please like, subscribe, and leave a comment. Remember, your access through Wix is waiting via the first link in the pinned comment. More details were provided at the beginning of the video. We will reconvene later for the TradFi review.