🚨 URGENT BITCOIN !! ACCORD USA & IRAN !! RETOUR du BULL RUN ? 🚀

A potential ceasefire between the United States and Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to fall significantly and Bitcoin and other risk assets to rise, while the dollar weakens. This situation has led to a major upward movement in the market. We'll examine the key levels Bitcoin (BTC) needs to break to sustain a true bullish trend, as the next few days will be crucial. Before diving in, I want to remind you about Wix access. VIP mentorship and the COT report are available. The COT report indicated that institutional investors had massively positioned themselves on American indices, suggesting they might have had prior knowledge. Access is free via the first pinned comment; simply register through our partner link and remain active on the platform. Ensure you click the correct link, then use the second link to fill out a quick form with your email and Wix ID. After submitting, you'll see a Discord link. Join, go to the registration channel, type `/AF`, choose "affiliation Wix," and enter your UID to link your Wix account to Discord. This grants you VIP status and access to the COT report. Wix is also running a promotion: deposit $100 for seven days and trade $1000 in futures to get a $20 bonus. Other bonuses include $10 for $100,000 in trading, $50 for $200,000, and $80 for $300,000. Regarding BTC and the global market, there's a potential two-week ceasefire agreement, though it's not 100% confirmed. Trump announced the ceasefire with Iran just hours before his ultimatum expired, having threatened massive strikes on civilian infrastructure. He even made a dramatic statement about a potential civilization-ending event. This could be market manipulation, but Iran accepted the temporary ceasefire and proposed ten points for its implementation, including non-aggression guarantees and Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations are set to begin Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan. The situation remains fluid; a definitive agreement is not yet in place, and the coming days will be critical. In exchange, Iran has committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz securely and coordinately with its armed forces, allowing oil traffic to gradually resume. This geopolitical development significantly impacts markets. Short-sellers are covering their positions, contributing to the upward movement, and buyers are repositioning due to the positive news. Graphically, the dollar has seen a sharp decline, hitting an order block that signaled a consolidation phase—similar to the bullish order block on the NASDAQ. The COT report suggested institutional repositioning, indicating they were betting on an agreement. However, if no agreement is reached, these institutions could exit, causing market damage. It’s crucial not to go "all-in" with leverage, especially at current technical levels. Oil prices have also fallen sharply, which is normal as the market reprices the reopening of the Strait and increased supply. Yet, without a definitive agreement, it’s premature to declare victory and aggressively leverage positions. Discipline and vigilance are essential. Technically, the flow for risk assets is now bullish, provided negotiations proceed well. Oil, however, still lacks a bearish structure. A definitive agreement, US withdrawal, and a return to normal global conditions—moving away from the month-long state of war—are needed for oil to enter a sustained bearish dynamic, which would help reduce inflation. Speaking of inflation, the upcoming CPI report on Friday is expected at 3.4%, a significant rise from the previous 2.4%. This increase in inflation, coupled with elevated oil prices, has influenced interest rate expectations. Currently, there's a 55% probability that interest rates won't be cut this year. For rate cuts to be repriced, oil prices must fall substantially. Geopolitics will continue to play a crucial role. For BTC, the key level is the order block that cleared previous lows. This order block must become a breaker block; otherwise, it could be a massive trap. If BTC fails to break this zone, it implies that the stop hunt was merely a setup for a downward reversal. All buyers who entered during this impulse candle would be trapped, and the market’s objective would be to liquidate the March lows. This is why forming a breaker block is critical. A successful breakout (breaker block) would signal BTC targeting $76,000 and potentially even retesting the monthly fair value gap around $80,000-$84,000, aligning with the CME gap at $84,000. This would involve revisiting the last peak and addressing the bearish impulse leg with the large gap. However, if the breaker block fails to form—which is a distinct possibility—the most probable outcome is a reversal, leading to a significant counter-move to reclaim the lows below $65,000, $62,000, or even $60,000. Therefore, the next few days are extremely important. Tomorrow (Thursday) brings significant news, including Core PCE and final GDP figures. Friday also has major data releases. If inflation is worse than expected—meaning oil price increases have a greater impact on the economy—the market will react strongly. Above 3.4% CPI would be pessimistic; below 3.4% would be encouraging. Bitcoin currently faces more resistance than the NASDAQ, making the formation of its breaker block even more crucial. If it forms, BTC could follow other risk assets towards $76,000 or even $80,000. While we’ve seen positive movement, technical validation—the breaker block—is essential. Without it, the current level is a high-probability reversal zone. The psychological bias is also shifting. During the "state of war," dips led to shorting. Now, with a ceasefire, if the market dips, people might mistakenly see it as a buying opportunity, thinking it's abnormal for prices to fall during a ceasefire when they didn't during the conflict. This could lead to a rush of leveraged long positions without sufficient underlying demand, which the market would be happy to liquidate. Bitcoin often spends three-quarters of its time liquidating positions before following major trends. My focus in the coming days will be on whether demand returns to the crypto market. Currently, stablecoin impressions are very low. With a ceasefire, risk assets should see increased interest, which would manifest as higher stablecoin impressions. If not, it suggests institutions are not interested in crypto, and the market could remain in a lethargic state of "pump and dump" cycles, liquidating both shorts and longs. For a true, sustained upward trend, fresh capital must enter the market. Otherwise, Bitcoin might remain range-bound, oscillating within its current limits due to a lack of demand. The most powerful indicator will be whether money flows back into the market. The news broke yesterday; now we need to see if stablecoin impressions of $500 million to $1 billion emerge, signaling renewed demand. Ethereum (ETH) is in a similar situation. It reached areas of relative equal highs on Bybit and Bitget (around $2200) that Binance and CME futures had already cleared. These are often zones the market retests. ETH is currently in crucial fair value gap zones, the last ones that hadn't been filled. For ETH to truly launch, it needs to clear this zone, moving beyond $2400 and towards targets like $2500-$2600, which is the equivalent of $80,000 for Bitcoin. There's also a CME gap on Ethereum futures that would be an objective. However, like Bitcoin, ETH must first break through its current resistance. Failure to do so would mean another trap, where the fair value gap is re-entered, and prices fall to reclaim previous lows. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are at critical resistance levels that must be overcome for further upside. Can we talk about a bull run or new all-time highs (ATHs)? Not yet. The immediate goal is to retrace the bearish legs we've left behind. For Ethereum, that means reaching $2477-$2900 as a first step before announcing a bull run or ATHs. We must also observe stablecoin impressions and demand. An ATH return without significant stablecoin impressions is highly improbable. Money needs to re-enter the market because a majority of investors are currently holding bags—meaning they bought higher and are now at a loss. This is evident from 2025, where $80 billion in stablecoins were printed, but Bitcoin's candle ended red, indicating large players distributed their holdings. These bag holders will create resistance by selling as prices rise. Without new demand to absorb this selling pressure, sustained upward movement is unlikely. Currently, in April, three months into 2026, we have a negative delta of $500 million, meaning no fresh capital has entered on a net basis. In January, there was a $6.8 billion outflow. February saw a $3.5 billion inflow, March about $2 billion, and April is at a $700 million delta. This indicates a significant slowdown in crypto demand. We need massive demand to return. As seen previously, when demand regresses, the market diverges and tops out, leading to downward movements. The best indicator for a sustained bullish recovery will be the return of capital to this market. I'll stop here for today. I hope this was helpful. You now have all the key technical and fundamental points to observe, including tomorrow's economic news and the definitive outcome of the ceasefire negotiations. The market remains very nervous and dynamic, which is expected given recent events. I'll be back later for a macro update. Ciao ciao.