ALERTRE BITCOIN ! C'ÉTAIT UN ÉNORME PIÈGE ? 🚨 (avis sans filtre)

The speaker begins by highlighting Bitcoin's current position at an extremely important level and announces a market overview, including an update on indices and the dollar. Before diving into the analysis, they remind viewers about access to Wig's VIP services, mentorship, and the COT report, which provides insights into institutional positioning. To access these, users must register via a specific partner link, be active on their Wix account, and then complete a form. This process links their Wix and Discord accounts, granting them access to VIP crypto channels and the market review COT report where institutional analyses are published. Turning to Bitcoin (BTC), the speaker emphasizes that it is currently in a crucial zone where the price could reverse. They explain the technical reasons, acknowledging the complexity for beginners. They briefly touch on long-term investment strategies, noting that they are preparing a video on BTC's hash rate and the potential threat of artificial intelligence, assuring viewers that Bitcoin is not dead but that the topic is highly relevant for investors, especially concerning mining companies and long-term surveillance. From a technical standpoint, the speaker reiterates that current zones are fundamentally interesting for investors and swing traders looking to buy and hold Bitcoin for several years. While they personally don't believe BTC has bottomed out, they acknowledge the possibility, given that the price is in what's considered the "production price" zone. This production price can go lower, with the speaker's personal indicator suggesting a floor where large mining companies like Riot and Mara can still operate profitably. The high hash rate supports this, refuting claims of miner capitulation. They clarify that the average production cost to mine one Bitcoin is currently between $60,000 and $70,000, with a potential low of $30,000-$34,000. Buying within or below these production prices is generally advantageous, as seen during events like COVID, where prices dipped significantly. The speaker suggests that if the hash rate continues to rise, investors buying now would likely be profitable by the next halving in April 2028, avoiding colossal losses unless the hash rate collapses due to AI. However, from a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still considered somewhat expensive. Institutional interest is low, as evidenced by negative inflows of $134 million and a lack of significant stablecoin impressions. The COT report also indicates a neutral stance from institutions, suggesting Bitcoin is too expensive to buy but not cheap enough to short, leading to the current ranging market. For investors, while fundamental prices are acceptable, historical data shows Bitcoin often bottoms in the "recharge zone" between 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, specifically between $39,000 and $57,000. The speaker speculates that the current consolidation might be accumulating buyers before a final capitulation, allowing larger players to acquire supply. They believe Bitcoin will eventually visit this recharge zone for a definitive bottom, though they acknowledge it might not happen. This belief stems from the current price action not resembling a typical bottom, lacking strong interest, stablecoin impressions, or massive long exposures from institutions. Comparing Bitcoin to the Nasdaq, the speaker notes a significant divergence. While Bitcoin has been ranging, the Nasdaq shows strong momentum and is close to its all-time highs, indicating continued interest in US stocks, particularly in AI, semiconductors, energy, and aerospace. The crypto narrative, however, is currently not attracting similar interest. The speaker's custom index of crypto stocks (Coinbase, Mara, Riot, MicroStrategy) shows no demand, indicating that money is not flowing into the crypto market, possibly due to a lack of a compelling narrative for institutions. Despite this, the speaker advises that buying a small amount of Bitcoin now could be profitable in a few years if historical patterns repeat. However, technically, the most attractive zones remain between $39,000 and $57,000. Institutional players, observing ETF and stablecoin flows, likely await these lower zones, which could lead to manipulation where retail investors are led to believe these zones won't be reached, prompting them to buy higher before a subsequent downturn. Technically, Bitcoin is in a high-probability reversal zone for a bearish resumption. While not a certainty, similar conditions previously led to a reversal. To invalidate a bearish outlook, Bitcoin needs to form a "breaker block" above the current order block and push beyond $76,000. This would suggest a retesting of previously untouched price levels, specifically $79,000-$88,000, with a CME gap at $84,000. The current top is defined by a specific wick that filled a weekly "fair value gap" (FVG). If this is indeed the top, Bitcoin should not settle above it. The "recharge zone for shorts" (between 61.8% and 78.6% from the top, or $71,800-$73,600) has been touched. The last bearish candle covering the top also defines a critical resistance. If Bitcoin is in a bearish resumption, anything above this candle is considered a top for BTC. The current situation mirrors past market behavior, such as the previous BTC top where a liquidity grab, a red closing candle, and a subsequent retest of the last bearish candle led to a continued downtrend. If the current price is the top and the weekly FVG is not broken, Bitcoin could be heading downwards, targeting the March low of $65,000 and potentially lower, remaining within its current range (bottom at $60,000, top at $72,000-$73,000). A positive signal for continuation would be a strong breakout above the last peak, forming a bullish breaker, and heading towards $76,000 and beyond. Without this, a slight bearish dynamic is emerging. Important news events include the Core PCE at 2:30 PM today (14:30), which is closely watched by the Fed, and tomorrow's CPI data, which is significant due to rising oil prices. Ethereum (ETH) is also in an important zone, similar to Bitcoin. If the current price action represents a top, this zone is a potential reversal point for Ether. A previous stop zone at $2,200 (on Bybit, Bitget, etc.) has been triggered. The key level to break for Ethereum is its fair value gap zone. A rejection here would likely target the March low below $1,905. Hourly charts show similar bearish order blocks forming and pushing the price down. Maintaining current impulses is crucial for ETH to reach the March high of $2,390. Failure to do so would likely lead to liquidating lower price points, potentially down to $1,905, suggesting the current move was a trap. For long-term investors, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are in interesting zones, even if they aren't the definitive bottom. The speaker advises against panic if prices drop further, encouraging investors to position themselves at lower levels. If Ether returns below $1,700, it's an opportunity to invest, not to short. The long-term perspective suggests that these assets are in a "bad range," where investors should position themselves, take profits at the top of the range, and potentially sell more if the range breaks upwards due to accelerated momentum. The speaker concludes by thanking viewers, encouraging likes, subscriptions, and comments, and reiterating the availability of Wix access and bonuses. They announce a macro review for later in the day.