ALTCOINS : CONFIRMATION des SIGNAUX ! (Bitcoin doit pas tout gâcher)

The video discusses the current market sentiment regarding altcoins against Bitcoin, noting recent signals of potential reversals and the importance of Bitcoin's price action in validating these hypotheses. The speaker emphasizes that they are talking about retracements, not necessarily the start of a bull market or an "altcoin season." A key tool used for analysis is an index of altcoins against Bitcoin. The speaker explains that this index has been in a bearish structure, and a break below a certain level (the "ferval gap") would indicate a new bearish phase for altcoins relative to BTC. Currently, this bearish structure has not fully formed, and the index is showing signs of a recent positive reaction, with a 6% increase in the last 24 hours (specifically, a 4.5% rise in the last daily candle). This reaction is described as the altcoin market waking up against Bitcoin. To understand investor psychology, the speaker utilizes Volume Weighted Average Prices (VWAPs). By plotting VWAPs from tops and bottoms, they aim to identify where the majority of investors are positioned. The analysis suggests that most altcoin investors are currently at a loss, as prices are far from the VWAPs. The speaker highlights the common investor behavior of holding onto assets for extended periods, often refusing to sell at break-even or a loss, hoping for significant gains. This collective mindset means that many investors are in the same boat, enduring losses. The concept of tokenomics is also brought up as a critical factor. The speaker uses Ondo as an example of a fundamentally good project with strong potential that is suffering due to poor tokenomics, specifically high inflation and excessive token unlocks. This dilutes the value of the token as supply increases without a corresponding rise in demand. To illustrate break-even points for individual altcoins, the speaker analyzes BNB and Cardano. For BNB, the break-even zone for investors who bought around the top is estimated to be in the short-reloading zone, around $850, which is far from current prices. Investors who bought from the bottom of the bear market are still in a relatively safe position, but it's a long way from their break-even. For Cardano, which has returned to its annual lows, it's identified as an interesting zone for long-term investors and "whales." However, the VWAP analysis shows that most investors are still far from their break-even points. The speaker reiterates that investors rarely sell at break-even; they typically wait for profitability. This reluctance to sell at a small loss means that when prices do rise towards break-even, there might not be significant selling pressure. The speaker then discusses the potential for retracements, suggesting that Cardano could reach monthly highs or "ferval gaps" in the current quarter, potentially between 31 and 33 cents, representing a 26-30% increase. They emphasize that this is not an extravagant rise and that further retracements are possible. The key takeaway is that with few sellers currently, a market maker could easily push prices higher. However, as prices approach the VWAP levels, selling pressure is expected to increase, slowing down any upward movement. The analysis then shifts to specific altcoins showing signs of retracement. BNB is mentioned as having formed a "breaker" signal by taking out the low of the first quarter and breaking an order block. While the breaker is not yet fully confirmed, the signal is present. The speaker notes that if BNB re-enters its previous range or breaks below $600, it would be a negative sign. However, as long as it stays above these levels, a retracement is possible. AV is presented as an example of an altcoin that has already confirmed its retracement signal. It has taken liquidity, formed a breaker, and is now filling "ferval gaps" and taking out previous stop levels. The current action on AV is described as a bullish continuation block, indicating the start of a retracement. Ultimately, Bitcoin's price action will determine the validity of these retracement scenarios. The speaker stresses the importance of drawing VWAPs on personal charts to understand where other investors are trapped. They warn that as prices approach these levels, it becomes more dangerous to hold positions due to increased selling pressure. For Bitcoin, the key observation is whether it will take liquidity and reverse, which would invalidate the Q2 retracement scenario and suggest a continuation of the bearish trend in the second quarter, potentially falling below $60,000 and targeting the first quarter's low. The desired scenario is for Bitcoin to break its current range and maintain an upward dynamic, confirming that it's not heading for a bearish continuation. This would involve breaking out of the range and transforming the current order block into a breaker. Such a move could lead Bitcoin to test higher zones, potentially between $80,000 and $89,000, allowing altcoins to breathe. The speaker identifies a "turbulence zone" due to high leverage, anticipating a potential "flush" or liquidation phase. Following this, the market will be clearer on whether further upside is possible or if the range will be broken. Breaking the current range by transforming the order block into a breaker would be a significant bullish signal. The speaker concludes by relating this potential altcoin retracement to broader market trends, such as a falling dollar index and rising US indices, suggesting a correlation with traditional finance. They caution about geopolitical risks but reiterate the observation of US indices in a potentially bullish second quarter. Finally, the speaker reminds viewers about free access to Wig resources for affiliates, including reports on institutional positioning, exclusive VIP analysis, and a personal trading strategy mentorship, accessible via partner links and Discord registration.