Ivan on Tech
AI Audio Summaries
20 videos summarized
1 follower on BriefTube
Last summary: May 20, 2026
AI Audio Summaries
20 videos summarized
1 follower on BriefTube
Last summary: May 20, 2026
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The stock market is currently experiencing new all-time highs for both the S&P and Nasdaq, indicating a bullish trend despite concerns about an "AI bubble." While some believe the market is overheated, the prevailing sentiment is to follow the bullish trend, acknowledging that any shift to bearish will be visible before a significant crash. Bitcoin is also seeing some upward movement, pushing above $80,000, although the overall long-term trend remains bearish. The market anticipates intervention from the Federal Reserve, especially with the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair. The US government is facing challenges in raising money, evidenced by a 30-year auction yielding 5%, which is considered extremely high. The Fed might need to step in by printing money and participating in the open market to control long-term yields, as traditional interest rate adjustments are insufficient. This potential intervention, often triggered by a market "break," could be a positive catalyst for crypto assets like Bitcoin.
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The current stock market, with the S&P and NASDAQ at all-time highs, presents a paradox: soaring markets alongside high inflation, the highest since May 2023. This contradicts earlier expectations of Fed rate cuts due to controlled inflation. Now, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates, and some predict a rate hike. Oil prices remain high, contributing to inflationary pressure, and despite a Middle East ceasefire, the oil market doesn't reflect a return to normalcy. Tariffs and other factors also add to inflation. The central question is how the stock market can surge while economic indicators appear bearish, leading many to predict a collapse. The speaker aims to explain this phenomenon and share a strategy for profiting in any market.
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The speaker addresses the possibility of repeating the 2022 market scenario, which saw a double top followed by a 77% decline, despite interim pumps. He notes a similar pattern emerging in the current market with a double top and subsequent dump, including a recent 37% pump that he compares to a 46% pump in 2022 before a further 70% drop. He then tackles common objections to this bearish outlook. The first objection is that history doesn't repeat itself, especially if widely anticipated. The second is that Michael Saylor is aggressively buying Bitcoin through issuing preferred stock, suggesting a bullish surge. The third objection, encompassing institutional involvement, posits that "this time is different."
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Bitcoin is currently battling the 200-day moving average, a crucial indicator. The speaker expresses uncertainty about whether this signals a four-hour cycle, a rejection, or a successful break. A public portfolio, initially funded with 1 million stablecoins, is discussed with an ambitious goal of reaching 10 to 100 million, leveraging opportunities in the upcoming bull market. However, caution is advised as the market remains in a bear trend, characterized by lower highs. The speaker emphasizes the importance of observing the market as it is, not as one wishes it to be. Opportunities in the stock market are highlighted, with smaller stocks like Micron, Intel, and AMD showing significant gains in the past six months. Bullmania, a platform offering tools for trading stocks, commodities, ETFs, and Forex, has added hourly and 12-hour timeframes to its money line indicator. This allows scalpers and longer-term traders to identify bullish or bearish flips. For instance, BNB and Doge flipped bullish on the hourly 12 hours prior, while Uniswap, Billions Network, and Ronin recently turned bullish on the 12-hour timeframe. Ronin's 12-hour bullish flip is particularly noteworthy as it's the first time since September 2025, also aligning with the 200-day moving average.
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Bitcoin is currently at an interesting point, around $80,000. On the weekly chart, the “money line” is still bearish, indicating a macro risk-off environment, despite being above the bull market support band. Historically, this support band has shown many fake-outs, so a sustained bullish trend requires the money line to also turn bullish. On the daily chart, Bitcoin needs to break the 200-day moving average, a crucial level often tested and rejected before a definitive break in bear markets. The current upward movement might be the first attempt in this bear market, suggesting it could be a relatively small one. However, caution is advised as typical bounces in bear markets tend to reach the 0.38 Fibonacci retracement level, around $85,000, which aligns with a significant resistance level. Therefore, a cool-headed approach is necessary, following the system rather than succumbing to FOMO. While the macro picture for Bitcoin remains bearish, smaller timeframes like the hourly and 4-hour charts offer numerous trading opportunities. For example, some altcoins have shown significant gains on these shorter timeframes, demonstrating that it's possible to trade actively even within a broader bearish trend. The key is to avoid over-romanticizing any coin and strictly adhere to mechanical trading rules. If a coin's indicator turns bearish, it's time to exit.
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Bitcoin is currently at $79, having seen a dip recently and a rejection at the 200-day moving average. On the daily chart, Bitcoin is bullish, but on the weekly, it remains bearish, following a structure of lower highs. This indicates an overall "risk-off" stance, emphasizing capital protection. Despite Bitcoin's bearish weekly outlook, opportunities exist in specific altcoins. While the total altcoin market cap hasn't shown significant movement, a select few, such as Ton, Zcash, Onondo, Siren, and Venice, have seen pumps. Being highly selective is crucial. For instance, Onom is confirming a bullish trend on the daily and 12-hour charts. However, given Bitcoin's overall bearish context, strict risk management, including tight stop-losses, is essential. The "bull market support band" is a useful but unreliable signal, as it has produced significant fake-outs in the past. The "money line" remains the primary, most important signal, indicating a bearish market overall. Therefore, any altcoin activities must be managed meticulously, as a Bitcoin dive could lead to rapid collapse in altcoins.
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Bitcoin is showing interesting activity, nearing 83, experiencing some rejection around 81, and attention is on the next move. While the weekly trend remains bearish, the overall picture is complex. On lower timeframes, like the four-hour and twelve-hour charts, many altcoins are exhibiting bullish flips, suggesting potential short-term trading opportunities. The speaker emphasizes using tools like the "money line" and "money scanner" to identify these flips, noting that recent updates have improved their reliability and reduced fake-outs on lower timeframes. Examples like Toncoin are highlighted for their strong performance on the four-hour chart. The strategy discussed involves trading these short-term bullish altcoin trends, with a clear exit strategy if Bitcoin turns bearish again. The speaker stresses that trading should be based on chart movements, not announcements, as announcements can be misleading.
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Bitcoin is currently trading above the bull market support band, reaching new weekly highs. The strategy discussed is to DCA slowly above this band and then accelerate DCA once the "mine line" is breached. While many altcoins are still underperforming, Zcash has shown significant strength, with a "big fat explosion" following a bullish flip on the weekly mining line, highlighting the importance of identifying assets with the best risk-reward entry points. Overall, the altcoin market, excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins, remains at a low, with most altcoins not showing significant movement. However, Zcash and a few others are pulling the index up. The speaker emphasizes the importance of positioning in assets that are bullish on the weekly chart.
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The current Bitcoin price is pushing higher, reaching $80k and then $81k, increasing bullish sentiment and leading to calls for a "golden bull" potentially targeting $120k-$150k. This video explores the likelihood of bears being "fully cooked" and the possibility of entering a "buy zone." On higher timeframes, Bitcoin remains bearish, specifically on the money line. Even a move to $86k would still represent a lower high. To establish a bullish trend on the higher timeframe, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $91k. Currently, Bitcoin is at the bull market support band, which is a critical level. The strategy here is to pause Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) and wait. Historically, after a 50% dump, the average pump is around 40%. Bitcoin has only seen about a 35-40% recovery so far. Therefore, being overly bullish too early is cautioned against.
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Bitcoin is currently at 79K, having been pumped to 80K by bulls. The key question is whether this is a genuine recovery or a bull trap. The discussion will cover bullish and bearish news, and strategies for positioning in the market. The possibility of Bitcoin returning to a "buy zone" will also be explored. Last week, the market closed below the previous year's low, but has since pumped higher, closing above the bull market support band (or bear market resistance band), indicating some strength for the bulls. However, trading above this band during a bear market is possible, as seen previously. The bull market support band is an indicator, but not a definitive trading signal. The strategy when above this band is slow Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA).
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Bitcoin is currently at 77.4, and there's discussion about a potential double bottom formation, which some believe could signal the end of the bear market. However, the practicality of using a double bottom for long-term trading decisions is questioned. While it might appear effective in hindsight, there have been many fake-outs, such as in 2022, which led to further declines. A double bottom becomes more practical as a confirmation alongside other bullish indicators, like breaking above the bull market support band (money line) and forming a higher high. Without these additional confirmations, relying solely on a double bottom when still bearish on key trend lines is not advisable for long-term market calls. For short-term traders, it might offer quick opportunities, but it doesn't signify the end of a bear market. Institutional activity, indicated by the Coinbase premium, shows a bearish sentiment, with the premium at a four-week low. This suggests a lack of institutional buying on Coinbase, which is typically favored by larger players. CryptoQuant reports rising perpetuals (perp) demand but contracting spot demand, a setup observed in 2022 before a market downturn. This suggests a speculative market rather than one driven by fundamental buying. Historically, strong fundamental buying occurs when Bitcoin is below its 200-week moving average, which is considered a long-term fair price. This demand is not yet evident.
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Bitcoin is currently positioned at a critical juncture around $76,000, with the arrival of May historically signaling a "sell in May and go away" trend, particularly in bear markets. This sentiment is reinforced by past market behavior in 2022 and 2018, where May saw significant downturns. However, the current market presents a mixed picture, with both bearish and bullish factors at play. On the bearish side, Bitcoin has experienced rejection from its yearly low on the weekly chart, failing to surpass the previous yearly close. This indicates a potential bearish sentiment. Further contributing to the bearish outlook is the surge in oil prices, reaching $110 and showing signs of further ascent, which could put pressure on risk assets. Additionally, US Treasury yields are rising, with both 20-year and 30-year yields hovering around 5%. This high yield presents a significant opportunity cost for investors holding riskier assets like Bitcoin, as they could earn a substantial passive income with lower risk. Rising Treasury yields also increase the cost of servicing US government debt, potentially triggering a "Taco scenario" (a geopolitical event or concession in the Middle East) that could impact financial markets. The increasing sentiment among some "boomers" that crypto is a "fugazi" or has failed is also noted, though historical parallels suggest such sentiment at the bottom of a bear market (like the ECB's declaration of Bitcoin's "last stand" in November 2022, which preceded a market bottom) could be a bullish signal. However, the speaker believes more "soul scratching" is needed, as there's still too much bullishness on platforms like Twitter.
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Today, the Fed is expected to announce its decision on interest rates, with Jerome Powell widely predicted by poly market and prediction markets to maintain current rates. This marks Powell's final FOMC meeting, and the focus isn't on an immediate rate change but rather on his statements regarding the economy and future rate adjustments. The next meeting will be led by Kevin Worsh, potentially signaling a new direction for the Fed. Examining past FOMC meetings and their impact on Bitcoin, we can analyze the probability of a price pump or dump. Vertical yellow lines on the chart represent past FOMC meetings. A table showing Bitcoin's performance 10 days post-FOMC reveals that, on average, Bitcoin has dropped approximately 14% after each meeting in 2026. Adjusting the timeframe to 7 days, the expected return is an 8% decrease. Over 15 days, the performance is even worse, and over 20 days, it remains negative. Statistically, in 2026, we can anticipate a 10-15% dump following the FOMC meeting. Visually, a consistent pattern of price decline after FOMC events is evident.
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The speaker warns that a rejection by the bull market support band could become "brutal" as April ends and May begins, especially since May in bear markets is historically associated with significant losses. The channel's strategy has been to go "risk off" since October 8th, prioritizing capital preservation and compounding, aiming to enter the market only when a clear bull trend is established. The speaker emphasizes avoiding holding altcoins that drop 80-90% and not feeling FOMO, as Bitcoin will not reach a million dollars without being in a bull trend, meaning above the bull market support band and the money line, similar to the entry in January 2023. The goal is to ride the "meat of the wave" to the upside and avoid the downside to compound capital across cycles, preventing "round tripping" which destroys wealth. Many long-term participants in the crypto space haven't achieved financial independence because they never allowed their capital to compound effectively. The speaker explains that the focus isn't on pinpointing exact bottoms or tops but on finding fantastic risk-reward entries that ideally lead to "up only" movements without capital destruction. Entering too early during a bear trend, especially when the bull market support band acts as resistance, is deemed very dangerous. The recent pump where Bitcoin moved 32% from $65k to almost $80k is described as a normal "relief rally" within a bear market, citing a previous 40% rally followed by a 70% drop. This recent pump did not establish a higher high structure, which is necessary for a bull trend. The bull market support band is currently acting as resistance, and while price sometimes closes above it for short periods, it hasn't done so confidently. The money line, currently at 91k, remains heavily bearish, indicating that current volatility is not a sign of a bullish reversal.
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The current Bitcoin price is at an interesting juncture, hovering around $77.6k, having previously been rejected near $79k and $80k. It's currently testing the bull market support band, also known as the bear market resistance band, and struggling to break above it. While it's above last year's low, it hasn't managed a weekly candle close above it. This leads to the perennial question: "Sell in May and go away?" Historical analysis of previous bear markets suggests that May is indeed a month to be cautious. In 2022, May saw a significant downturn. Similarly, in 2018, May marked the beginning of a sharp decline after a period of optimism in April. In 2014, May was an exception, being a period of optimism, but this followed a prior "La La Land" phase. The speaker emphasizes that "La La Land" phases, where prices seem to be in a bull market, often precede significant drops. The current situation, with prices consolidating and showing some upward momentum, is compared to these "La La Land" periods.
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The current market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, particularly in tech stocks, with Intel showing a remarkable 30% pre-market increase. This surge in tech is prompting a discussion about its potential to influence Bitcoin's performance. Despite the strong bullish trend in tech, a cautious approach is advised to ensure profitability regardless of market movements. Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture, battling the bull market support band, which acts as resistance in bear markets. While bulls are encouraged by Bitcoin remaining above a key weekly low close, the immediate focus is on overcoming the yearly low close. A key argument for a continued upward trend in Bitcoin is the difference in funding rates compared to previous consolidation periods. Previously, during a breakdown, the funding rate was predominantly green, indicating more long positions. Currently, however, more traders are short, suggesting that this consolidation is less likely to result in a downside break.
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The speaker addresses the current Bitcoin price surge to $78K, questioning whether bulls have definitively won or if it's a potential fake-out before another downturn. They acknowledge that such rallies can occur within bear markets, citing a 40% pump in 2022 that preceded a significant price collapse. While current performance deviates slightly upwards from average midterm years, it remains within historical possibilities, including 2022's trajectory. Therefore, the speaker advises preparing for a bullish scenario while recognizing the persistent reality of the bear scenario, cautioning against complacency. The discussion then focuses on the Bull Market Support Band, an indicator that signals a bullish trend when prices close above it. However, the speaker highlights the possibility of fake-outs, referencing 2022's instance of trading above the band for three weeks before a crash. While a close above the band suggests a more bullish stance and a potential for slow dollar-cost averaging (DCA), the speaker emphasizes that the "money line" (another indicator) is still at 91K, suggesting it's "calling the bluff" on the current bullish momentum. The gap between the current price and the money line is significant, unlike previous bull market flips where the gap was smaller and the money line was ready to turn bullish. The speaker suggests DCAing above the current price level as a hedge, but stresses the massive downside risk and the need to remain vigilant.
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The video discusses whether the current Bitcoin price surge, approaching $77k-$78k, signifies the death of the four-year cycle or is a "fakeout." The speaker outlines two main scenarios: either a continued pump to new highs or a rejection leading to a downturn. The crucial element, regardless of the scenario, is proper positioning, as any theory is based on probabilities, meaning even a high-probability scenario doesn't guarantee the outcome. The video aims to explain how to navigate this uncertainty, determine if the four-year cycle is dead, and outline a forward plan. The speaker introduces the concept of being "de-risked," mentioning that they have been de-risked since October 8th. They emphasize the importance of smart de-risking, not just when prices are at their peak. The first chart presented is the Bitcoin yearly performance chart. It shows that since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin's performance has been exact relative to the midterm year in US elections, which occurs every four years, visualizing the four-year cycle. Currently, Bitcoin's price action is challenging this cycle by potentially going higher than normal. It's noted that the year-to-date performance is similar to 2022, which ended with a minus 64% return. While the average midterm year ends at minus 65%, the current deviation from the average, which was previously followed closely, suggests a weakening of the bear trend confirmation signal.
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Welcome to an update on the bear market, as current indicators show we are heavily within one. While there are signs of some bullish momentum, all market movements are probabilistic. We adjust our positioning based on the highest probabilities, and currently, the outlook remains very bearish. Many have asked for an update covering both positive and negative scenarios and a practical navigation strategy, as market conditions can change rapidly. Our goal is to provide a clear strategy for deploying capital. Since October, our community has been "risk-off," meaning we have substantial capital ready to invest, unlike many who have held assets that are now down 90%. We need to balance the possibility of further declines with the potential for a market turnaround. Our strategy ensures we are prepared whether Bitcoin reaches a million dollars or drops to 40k.
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