NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT THIS: CRITICAL

The speaker discusses economic data that is largely unreported but suggests a strengthening economy, leading to an increased bullish stance on the Bear Bull scale, currently at 7.1. This optimism is influencing decisions to allocate more to stocks and increase existing positions, even amidst global conflicts. While acknowledging that the current conflict will lead to higher-for-longer oil prices, the focus is on positive underlying economic fundamentals. The ADP employment report, particularly the data from the last two weeks, has shown phenomenal trends. Historically, at the beginning of the year, weekly private ADP job gains were relatively low, ranging from 5,500 to 12,000. However, these numbers started to climb, reaching 10,000, 15,000, and 26,000 in March, which annualizes to over 100,000 jobs monthly. What has gone unreported is the surge in job openings (jolts) in the last two weeks. For the week ending March 28th, there were 40,250 jolts, translating to over 160,000 jobs on a monthly basis, aligning with the BLS labor report. Even more recently, for the week ending April 4th, the data showed 54,750 jolts, which extrapolates to approximately 218,000 jobs monthly. This private survey data, which won't be officially released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics until May 3rd, indicates a robust labor market that is not just stabilizing but showing significant growth. The labor market has been stabilizing since November, after a period of decline last year primarily due to immigration enforcement slowing down. Despite layoff announcements, hiring has increased. The speaker refutes the idea that AI will destroy jobs, pointing out that hiring for radiologists has skyrocketed since AI's advent. AI reduces radiologists' workload, enabling faster and more accurate diagnoses, which moves people through the healthcare system more efficiently. Similar trends are observed in cancer diagnostics, where AI can analyze precursors and medical history to predict cancer risk, leading to more targeted screening. Even in software engineering, where some feared AI would replace human jobs, hiring for software engineers has been on the rise. Economically, these trends are considered very bullish. In addition to the strengthening labor market, private credit is also stabilizing. The owners of Blue Owl, for example, have had their personal debt unlinked from their shares in Blue Owl Capital, and other sectors of private credit are showing stabilization. Bond pricing in the secondary market is stabilizing, and other firms are actively buying and investing in private credit. Real estate, another significant economic factor, has also been stable and even increasing in many areas, particularly in low-build regions like Southern California. While oil prices are expected to remain an issue, the speaker believes that the existing stock market wealth among middle and higher-income individuals, coupled with household wealth (especially among homeowners and seniors), can absorb the pain of higher oil prices. This perspective acknowledges that certain sectors, like airlines, will suffer due to their low-margin business model. Rate cuts are not expected until the Strait of Hormuz situation stabilizes and oil flows normalize. Once that occurs, and the bad data associated with it is processed, a figure like Kevin Warsh might advocate for rate cuts to sustain economic and labor growth. The speaker emphasizes that while a collapse is always possible, the current underlying economic data is increasing his bullishness and leading to more stock allocation, including investments in House Hack. The current stock portfolio is performing well, with exposure to software and other long-term, undervalued plays. The overall message is that while headlines often focus on geopolitical events, the underlying economic data is turning bullish, a trend that many are not reporting on.