Ce que Trump vient de faire va faire mal aux marchés - La Météo des Marchés

In this edition of the Market Method, the speaker addresses a financial landscape characterized by peak stress indicators and what he describes as an unprecedented display of bravado from Donald Trump. According to the transcript, the market has reached a breaking point with Trump’s consistent attempts to manipulate price action through provocative statements and sudden policy shifts. The speaker suggests that the market is "fed up with this nonsense" and that Trump has effectively been issued a "red card" by investors who no longer believe his narrative. A central theme of the transcript is the alleged rigging of market rallies. The speaker points to a specific instance where Trump announced positive news at the very end of a trading session to delay a potential confrontation with Iran. This move reportedly led to a $1.7 billion purchase in the futures markets just before the announcement, alongside significant short positions taken on oil. The speaker characterizes these maneuvers as blatant manipulation, suggesting that Trump acts more like a trader seeking "alpha" for himself and his associates than a traditional statesman. However, the speaker argues that this strategy is failing because Trump has "exhausted his jokers." By constantly shifting between threats to "smash" Iran and claims that Iran is "begging for a deal," he has lost all credibility. The speaker invokes the analogy of "the boy who cried wolf" to describe Trump’s current standing with market participants. While a single tweet might have caused a massive bounce in the past, the current market response is muted. For example, recent attempts to spark a post-market rally had little to no impact on pre-market prices, indicating that the "Trump Alpha" has vanished. The speaker notes that for a real upward reaction to occur now, the market would require a genuine peace treaty or a significant resolution, rather than just more "beautiful lies." From a technical perspective, the transcript paints a grim picture. The speaker highlights that the VIX (Volatility Index) and the DXY (Dollar Index) are both soaring. He notes that the DXY is approaching the psychologically significant level of 100. While this level has been rejected in the past, the current "bull flag" structure suggests it could settle above 100, which would be detrimental to global market energy. The speaker observes that the weekly charts show a breakdown of major support levels, with price action being "accepted below" these key areas. This leads him to believe the market is in "total bearish control" and may be on the verge of a "Black Swan" event or a serious, intense panic. The speaker also mentions specific stock movements and sector narratives. He discusses a short position he held on Micron (MU), noting that the "memory narrative" appears to be reaching its end. He cites news regarding Google and Nvidia potentially requiring significantly less memory for their chips as a trigger for a broader sell-off in that sector. Furthermore, he expresses concern over the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. Microsoft, in particular, is described as looking weak, while Nvidia is sitting precariously on a support level. The speaker warns that if Nvidia settles below its current range, it could lead to a "blood orgy" of widespread selling across the entire market. A particularly concerning detail mentioned is a reported technical bug on Interactive Brokers, one of the world's largest trading platforms. The speaker claims that the platform accidentally erased stop-loss and limit orders for many users. He suggests that if a major downward movement occurs while investors are unprotected by their stop orders, the resulting damage could be catastrophic, fueling a "real, serious panic." Regarding cryptocurrencies, the speaker remains skeptical. He references a report from Goldman Sachs suggesting that crypto has bottomed out. However, the speaker views Goldman Sachs as a "contrarian indicator," or "the devil," implying that their positive outlook actually signals that another "beating" or price drop is imminent for the crypto market. The transcript concludes with an analysis of insider buying. The speaker examines Shift4 Payments, where the CEO has made massive purchases totaling millions of dollars. Despite this, the speaker is wary, noting that the stock is in a clear downward trend. He suggests the CEO might be "doubling down on a losing trade" rather than following a sound macro-investment strategy. In contrast, he points to MGM as a more promising setup, noting a "big compression" on the weekly chart combined with insider purchases and a strong performance in the Las Vegas gaming sector. Ultimately, the speaker warns viewers to "hold on to their underwear" for the coming days. The market is caught between the potential for a violent rebound—should an unexpected ceasefire occur—and the likelihood of a major crash as Trump’s ability to prop up the markets through rhetoric finally fails. The overarching sentiment is one of extreme caution in the face of a rigged, exhausted, and technically fragile market.