เบื้องลึก 'เอกนิติ' ทำไมตัดสินใจออก พ.ร.ก. กู้เงิน! | Exclusive Interview EP.74

The discussion revolves around the necessity of a royal decree for a 500 billion baht loan, primarily because current budget laws are fully committed, and further borrowing requires legislative action. This loan request is framed within the context of preparing the 2027 budget and addressing ongoing economic challenges. A key meeting between the Prime Minister and four economic ministers focused on the overall economic picture and the preparation of the 2027 budget. The assessment highlighted that the global economic crisis might have longer-lasting effects than anticipated, with inflation potentially remaining higher than expected. Consequently, the 2027 budget will still be in deficit, though a smaller one, adhering to the principle of gradual deficit reduction and fiscal discipline. Discussions held in the United States aimed to reassure international partners of Thailand's commitment to wise fiscal policy and discipline. A significant concern raised was Thailand's competitive potential, with efforts underway to drive improvements over the past four months. The government emphasized its commitment to responsible spending, which helped boost the economy in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the current period of stability in Thailand, contrasted with past political volatility, is seen as an advantage, enabling structural reforms that can more effectively revive the economy. The 2027 budget will reflect this by cutting unnecessary expenses and increasing Thailand's competitiveness. The speaker cautioned against complacency, emphasizing that while the economy may have passed its lowest point, the global situation remains uncertain. The focus is on preparedness, maintaining "ammunition" to manage the economy, and investing in economic recovery to emerge stronger post-crisis. The purpose of the 500 billion baht loan is multi-faceted. A priority is to first review and cut spending from the 2026 budget, particularly inefficient expenditures. For the 2027 budget, planned cuts include unnecessary travel and training expenses, as well as non-essential construction projects. The loan is intended to support two main areas: alleviating hardship for vulnerable groups and restructuring the economy. Vulnerable groups identified include low-income individuals with welfare cards (approximately 13.4 million people), those affected by the oil crisis and high inflation, and salaried employees whose pay increases haven't kept pace with rising costs. Support will also extend to the SE (Self-Integrated Marketing) group. Economic restructuring efforts are crucial, especially given Thailand's transition towards cleaner energy sources. This includes encouraging the use of electric vehicles (EVs) and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. The transition involves investments in solar power, EV charging infrastructure, and potentially supporting industries like the locomotive sector in adopting cleaner technologies. The speaker noted that measures to address PM2.5 pollution, partly caused by vehicle emissions, are being considered, drawing parallels with China's successful efforts to combat air pollution through electric transportation. The proposed loan packages total 400 billion baht, with the remaining 100 billion baht still under consideration by the National Economic and Social Development Council. Discussions also encompass investments in infrastructure for flood prevention and water management, recognizing the recurring challenges of drought and floods. Regarding the debt ceiling, Thailand has set a self-imposed limit of 70% of GDP, currently standing at 60%. This leaves ample room for borrowing without exceeding the established fiscal discipline guidelines. The anticipated borrowing of 500 billion baht is expected to remain within this ceiling, suggesting that an extension of the debt ceiling may not be immediately necessary. The speaker addressed concerns about the economic outlook, acknowledging that the GDP forecast might not reach the initially projected 2%. However, the budget is designed to support the transition and recovery, aiming to bring GDP growth closer to that level. Efforts are also being made to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) by addressing bottlenecks, such as the liberalization of the electricity market. The liberalization of the electricity market, particularly the DIR PPA (Power Purchase Agreement), is a significant policy under discussion, expected to be presented to the Cabinet soon. This policy aims to enable direct purchase and sale of electricity, creating opportunities for investment in clean energy and marking a turning point for Thailand's energy sector. Restoring public confidence is paramount. The Deputy Prime Minister likened borrowing to a family needing funds for essential needs like education or healthcare. The key is the purpose of the loan: investing in infrastructure, human resources (including AI development), and ultimately, in people's ability to generate income. This investment is viewed as safe and beneficial for long-term development. Transparency in the use of borrowed funds is emphasized, with plans to implement a digital system to enhance accountability and oversight. The speaker concluded by expressing confidence in Thailand's creditworthiness and stability, which allows for borrowing from international sources. The ultimate goal is to invest in a stronger, more capable workforce and a more resilient economy.