TK LIVE : Iran Vs USA, le conflit reprend et les marchés risquent de plonger

The speaker opens by welcoming viewers and immediately dives into significant geopolitical and macroeconomic events impacting financial markets, particularly cryptocurrency. He highlights recent news about former President Trump and the ongoing tensions between Iran and the United States, which have caused significant market volatility. He points to a "magnificent red candle" on the Bitcoin chart, attributing it directly to Trump's latest announcements. The core issue revolves around a failed meeting in Pakistan between Iran and the U.S. regarding a ceasefire. The speaker notes that while he anticipated the negotiations would fail due to irreconcilable demands (Iran wanting to enrich uranium and control the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. opposing both), he was surprised by Trump's subsequent decision to officially block the Strait of Hormuz with the American navy. This means any vessel that has paid Iran's transit fee (which some had speculated could be paid in cryptocurrency like Bitcoin) will be attacked by the U.S. Navy. The speaker sarcastically remarks on the perilous situation for sailors caught between Iranian and American forces, acknowledging the seriousness of the situation despite his humorous tone. He explains that the previous week saw a significant market rally (represented by large green candles on the chart) driven by optimism about the ceasefire talks. Many traditional media outlets and market participants proclaimed this as the beginning of a new bull run. However, the speaker remained highly skeptical, as he had expressed on Twitter and in a previous video. He reiterates his belief that the market's recent ascent and subsequent drop are primarily driven by liquidations of long and short positions, rather than genuine spot buying. He emphasizes the lack of significant spot trading volume, even from large institutional investors ("whales"), suggesting that there isn't enough underlying demand to sustain a true bullish trend. The speaker admits that the current market downturn, while tense, aligns with his personal strategy. He mentions having shorted Bitcoin at $73,000 and maintaining spot buys at lower price points ($50,000, $55,000, $60,000). He prefers Bitcoin to drop further to enable more accumulation rather than seeing it "go to the moon." He criticizes the "naïve" market sentiment that quickly declared a bull run based on temporary positive news, recalling how he was derided for maintaining a bearish outlook. He remains convinced that a true market bottom has not yet been reached, citing the lack of significant spot buying pressure. He then introduces an analysis from Block Unity, which illustrates Bitcoin's performance across market cycles, particularly highlighting the "disillusionment phase" currently being experienced. He notes that the current market sentiment, where "nobody cares about cryptocurrency anymore" except for "arch-believers," is a necessary part of a healthy market cycle. According to this analysis, the market is "not far" from finding its bottom, but "not there yet." This reinforces his view that a new low is likely, though he cannot predict the exact price ($60,000, $58,000, or lower) or timing (weeks or months, possibly September-October). He stresses that he cannot envision a sustained bull run without passing through these final stages of despair and seeing significant whale accumulation. The speaker further supports his bearish outlook by discussing liquidity on exchanges. While large amounts of stablecoins are being sent to centralized exchanges like Binance and KuCoin, they are not being immediately converted into spot Bitcoin purchases. Instead, this liquidity is being held, with buy orders placed at lower price points, indicating that investors are waiting for a further dip. He argues that without massive spot buying from both retail and institutional investors, a true bullish trend cannot be built. He briefly touches on the relevance of historical Bitcoin cycles, noting that current market conditions, such as reaching an All-Time High before the halving, make direct comparisons difficult. He prefers to focus on fundamental indicators rather than rigid cycle theories. Addressing a viewer's comment, the speaker advises that for those not yet exposed to Bitcoin, the current price (around $70,000, give or take a few thousand) is an "extremely interesting" entry point for initial exposure, though not for "all-in" investments. However, for those already holding Bitcoin at higher prices, he suggests waiting for a potentially lower entry point. He clarifies that he is personally willing to buy back in at higher prices ($75,000, $80,000) if a true and sustained bullish trend emerges, rather than trying to perfectly time the bottom in an uncertain market. He reiterates that Trump's announcements cause significant market swings, creating a "yo-yo" effect rather than a clear trend. He expresses concern that the current situation, with the Strait of Hormuz blocked, could lead to a severe market crash on Monday, but also acknowledges Trump's past tendency to "miraculously save" the markets with unexpected announcements. He cites Trump's recent statement, "If the price of gasoline increases, let it increase, it doesn't concern me," as indicative of his disregard for the global impact, particularly on U.S. allies and countries like China heavily reliant on oil from the region. The discussion then shifts to the recent significant price drop of BitTensor (TAO). The speaker explains that TAO is a broader entity overseeing "subnets," which are protocols developing various functions for its AI system. The recent crash resulted from a major disagreement between TAO's founders and the leaders of a prominent subnet. He frames this as a common issue in the crypto ecosystem, recalling similar conflicts in projects like Atom Cosmos, where disagreements within development teams or between different groups, even after community votes, lead to projects splitting or key contributors leaving. This highlights the inherent fragility of many decentralized projects despite their ideals of decentralization and censorship resistance. The speaker argues that while crypto promotes values like decentralization and open-source code, the human element—disagreements, shifting visions, or external pressures—can still significantly impact projects and lead to investor losses. He contrasts this with Bitcoin's unique advantage: the absence of a central figure or team. He recounts an anecdote about Ethereum's nodes, where over 50% are hosted in the U.S., largely in Amazon data centers. While nodes can be relocated, he argues that the real vulnerability lies in the ability to exert pressure on individuals like Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum leadership, potentially forcing them to censor transactions or face legal consequences. This, he believes, is Bitcoin's ultimate strength—its truly leaderless nature. Finally, the speaker touches on the Real World Assets (RWA) sector, predicting it will be one of the most profitable in the coming years due to its massive potential and existing customer base. He shares projections suggesting the RWA market, currently at $30 billion, could reach $150 billion by 2027, representing a significant increase in liquidity. He also shares a "bad news" item: the exchange Mexi is moving towards Mika compliance, which involves KYC (Know Your Customer) requirements and other regulations. As someone who prefers unregulated platforms for spot buying and quick withdrawals, he expresses disappointment, noting that Gate.io is now his last remaining option for such activities. He also observes that AI agents are increasingly dominating operations on Ethereum, noting their efficiency and autonomy in managing funds across various blockchains, which he finds impressive despite the current bear market. The speaker concludes by reiterating his cautious stance on Bitcoin, maintaining his buy orders at lower prices, and expressing hope for a genuine, lasting peace between the U.S. and Iran to stabilize markets. He thanks viewers and encourages them to like, subscribe, and comment to support his channel.