Effet TACO - Trump sauve les actions du krach mais...

In this weekly video, the speaker discusses market trends, starting with the potential impact of Trump's negotiations with Iran, which he describes as a "taco effect." This has allowed commodities, particularly oil, to consolidate within what is described as an "explosive triangle" with intact upside potential. The consolidation is less short-term than previously anticipated, and the global situation, especially energy pressure on commodities and stocks, is merely delayed. While a short-term stock market crash might be averted due to the "Taco" phenomenon, the upside potential for energy, especially oil, remains explosive. This suggests that a bearish market for stocks could emerge in a few months, but the long-term mental image, which prioritizes a broader perspective and longer timeframes, remains crucial for understanding current events. The video then moves into specific asset analyses, beginning with Bitcoin (BTC). BTC is currently forming a small consolidating chartist triangle that is reaching maturity. It remains in a bearish market state as long as a key resistance holds. This consolidation is seen as a continuation of the trend, meaning a break to the south could lead to a significant bearish acceleration in the coming weeks. The only scenario that would invalidate this is a break to the north, pushing BTC back into a range market. However, the favored scenario is a continuation of the bearish momentum. Ripple (XRP) shows a similar configuration to BTC, with a small bearish continuation chartist triangle. The long-term outlook for Ripple suggests a large range with potential for further decline in the coming months. Ethereum (ETH) is also in a large triangle on the long-term chart, currently at a support level and forming a small triangular consolidation, similar to Ripple and BTC. A break to the north for these consolidations would be positive, but as BTC is the leading index and officially in a bear market, a southward break in BTC's triangle would likely lead to ETH also breaking south, potentially reaching its support. The speaker notes that the outcome is still uncertain, but BTC's signals lean towards a southward break. A quick review of the Euro-Dollar pair reveals a small upward channel with high volatility since 2023. The upward movement is weakening, with a frequently tested support. A potential next rebound could make management difficult, possibly leading to a retest of the lower bound of this short-term upward channel, which, in currency cycles, spans several years. Long-term, the Euro is in a significant bearish cycle against the dollar. The current support could break by the end of 2026, leading to a rapid and strong decline. To support the scenario of a weakening Euro or strengthening Dollar, the speaker presents the Dollar Index (DXY) chart, which shows the dollar in a long-term upward channel, forming a double bottom and potentially a turning point. A weekly break of a specific pivot point could trigger an impulsive wave for the dollar, leading to a multi-quarter rally against a basket of currencies. Gold, when analyzed against the US dollar, has seen three consecutive weeks of gains, indicating a lateralization phase. This period is seen as digesting part of the 2025-early 2026 rally, which was a "climax run" but not an "hyperclimax run," thus maintaining a long-term bull market logic. The speaker emphasizes that sustained, regular movements are crucial for long-term bullish trends, unlike rapid, strong vertical movements. Remaining in this long-term bull market logic, gold is expected to lateralize. Significant downward movement below a specific line would warrant considering position adjustments. The same logic applies to gold against the Euro, with three weeks of gains within a lateralization phase in a large bull market, potentially lasting several months. The DBC, an ETF comprising a diversified basket of raw materials, experienced a slight dip this week but remains in a strong upward momentum. A small triangle might form in the coming weeks, but the general trend is a powerful impulse. Historically, commodities are known for strong, quick moves that don't last excessively long, typically weeks rather than years, followed by sharp corrections. Currently, the market is in a vertical ascent phase. Oil, despite a weekly drop, is believed to be at the beginning of its upward potential. Following a break in early March, it is consolidating. The previous week's anticipation of a short-term chartist triangle has evolved into a slightly more medium-term triangle. The speaker illustrates this as a "market rocket" formation, similar to what he traded in his youth on the American market, involving large base extraction, initial consolidation, and breakout buying for explosive short-term trends. A break to the north would continue this trend, while a break to the south would abort the rally, which would be positive for American stocks and long-term portfolios, as stock markets generally yield better long-term returns than commodities or gold. Currently, the market is in an inverted logic, with high inflationary risk, commodity spikes, and stock market nervousness. The S&P 500 showed a magnificent week of gains, reflecting another "taco effect" (Trump always chickens out). This negotiation tactic, while perhaps successful for Trump, created global tension. On charts, it leaves "V-bottom" imprints. The market is likely returning to a volatile range within a bull market consolidation. A break to the south would signal a deep correction or even a long-term trend reversal, but this is not currently the case. The upper bound of the range is expected to act as resistance. The Nasdaq exhibits a similar pattern, with slightly more volatility and clearer V-bottoms during the "Trump tariff crisis" and "Trump oil crisis." It is currently in a volatile range market, with an upper bound expected to halt prices in the short term. Volatility could subside if the Iran conflict is genuinely halted for more than two weeks. Conversely, a resumption of the conflict could lead to a southward break of the range and a deeper correction. The European market, specifically the CAC 40, is in a large upward channel with a stable, slow upward momentum. Cycles within this trend can be long. It has entered a small volatile range that could persist for several months, potentially until late 2026, before a clear direction emerges: either a resumption of the bull run towards the upper channel or a break of support and the channel, leading to a recessionary scenario exacerbated by global energy pressures. The German Dax index previously showed a faster upward momentum than the French market but broke its upward channel in March. It is currently rebounding, but the momentum is significantly impacted, moving towards a range market. A sustained move below support would indicate a bearish market or deep correction, but this is not yet the case. Finally, the speaker provides a live recap of his "Always Impulse" portfolio. Since 2021, this portfolio aims to stabilize volatility during crises and quickly move to cash. A significant move in April protected the portfolio, aligning with the shared graphic analysis and trends. The portfolio is currently experiencing drawdowns, which are a normal part of its history, with several experienced since 2022. A rebound zone has been forming for two weeks. The portfolio's role is long-term, involving only one arbitration per month, not active daily trading. Further information on the portfolio, including its construction and market timing concepts to reduce volatility and maximum drawdowns, is available via links below the video.