
๐จ Markets STILL Peaking?! AI & Crypto Trades Iโm Watching RIGHT NOW ๐
Audio Summary
AI Summary
The current market conditions are described as "nutty," with a war in the Middle East, spiking oil prices, and multi-year high inflation, yet the S&P 500 is reaching new all-time highs, driven by AI. The S&P 500 shows no sell signals, trading well above its 200-day moving average. The QQQ is exhibiting similar behavior, with even more accelerated growth and only shallow dips during market turmoil.
Bitcoin is discussed, noting its dip from a "blue zone" (buy zone) and rejection off the 200-day moving average. In a bull market, this average acts as support, but in a bear market, it acts as resistance. Technical traders view this as a sign that Bitcoin may still be in a bear market, but breaking above the 200-day moving average would signify an exit from the bear market. Michael Saylor's significant Bitcoin purchases through MicroStrategy (STRC) are mentioned, driven by an upcoming ex-dividend date. The outlook for Bitcoin is described as more "chop," but the overall trend remains strong.
Ethereum is trading sideways, with its ETF flows differing from Bitcoin's historical patterns. Solana ETF flows, however, are strong, with the asset showing a significant rebound. Solana's perps are also recovering, and the price approached $100. Solana is considered an "easy 3X in crypto," with upcoming developments like "Clarity Fuel" and new perps like Phoenix aiming to compete with existing platforms.
Tesla is showing strength, bouncing off a support and resistance line around the $330s. The market is perceived to be rotating from "pick-and-shovel" AI plays to "real baby AGI" applications like self-driving cars and Optimus robots. Elon Musk's visit to China with the US president is noted. Tesla's trend is strong, trading above its 200-day moving average and within 10% of all-time highs. A prediction is made that Tesla could break $500 within three months.
Nvidia has broken out of its range and hit a new all-time high, with its market cap reaching $5.5 trillion. A sell signal is present at the top, which is concerning, but the AI trend is described as unstoppable. The indicator used (bars, line, candles) can affect the appearance of sell signals. Jensen Huang's presence in China with the US president is highlighted, with anticipation of a significant AI deal announcement.
AMD has been on a strong run since earnings, moving from $189 to $450-$460. However, it appears to be running out of steam, with a clear sell signal on the 4-hour chart's confluence model. The trend on the 4-hour chart remains up, but a potential slowdown is anticipated.
Micron is performing exceptionally well, breaking through to near all-time highs at over $800. It's described as the "AI memory trade" and is still trending upwards. However, entering these assets at current levels is not advised; a mean reversion is suggested. Micron's financials show strong revenue growth and profitability with high margins, and its earnings continue to beat expectations. The forward earnings estimates suggest it's still undervalued.
Broadcom is showing signs of running out of steam, with a mean reversion turning downwards and a sell signal at the top. It's considered a potential candidate to pull back to around $350.
Arista Networks (ALAB) is identified as a "range rider," bouncing between $185 and $235. It faces stiff resistance around $235-$232. The company is benefiting from the capex boom.
Google has reached a new all-time high, despite its valuation increasing. It holds significant stakes in Anthropic and SpaceX and possesses a strong TPU business. Demand for its services and AI capabilities are robust.
Marvel has also hit a new all-time high, driven by the capex boom. Its financials were previously "sketchy," but its importance to hyperscalers is now recognized.
SpaceX (referred to as a proxy via "Sats") has achieved a new all-time high. The IPO is anticipated for June with a potential valuation of at least $2.2 trillion. Ron Baron plans to invest an additional billion dollars at the IPO.
Oil is trading choppily between $100 and $110, then $95-$99. The current market conditions, with high oil prices and all-time highs in the market, are considered bizarre and attributed to AI.
EOS had good earnings with a significant upside surprise, though revenue growth was modest. The stock reached $9.99, fulfilling a prediction of $10 by year-end within 44 days. Energy storage is seen as important for AI, and the "Clarity Act" is expected to pass, benefiting companies like Circle and Solana.
USDC transactions and processing volume occur on Solana, as does all minting and payment transfers. Solana is expected to benefit from the Clarity Act, along with Circle. A buy signal at $75 was noted, with a dip to $50 on February 5th, the market's all-time low.
Palantir is discussed in relation to its "kill box" around $128, a level that has historically acted as support. Buying in layers is recommended, starting with a taste and then adding more if it dips further.
Copper has reached a new all-time high, driven by the AI capex boom and its essential role in AI infrastructure. Demand is expected to outstrip supply for the next three to five years. Buying at the top is not advised, but opportunities exist at old resistance levels like $6.20 or $5.30.
MicroStrategy is described as "lackluster," despite clean buy signals off the 200-week moving average. Michael Saylor's recent activity involves selling ATMs and buying STRC. Early investors who bought MicroStrategy at low prices in 2020 are still seeing significant gains.
Hims is viewed as an "ugly" chart, struggling at level two ($27-$28) and falling to level four. The financials are slowing down, with revenue flat and recent losses. A buy recommendation is given around $17 or $20, contingent on future outlook and demand for weight-loss drugs.
The "tabby" indicator is specific to Bitcoin and analyzes on-chain data. There is no tabby for Solana, but one could be developed if on-chain data matures.
Regarding EOS, a prediction of $10 by year-end was made, and it reached $9.99 within 44 days. A pair trade between EOS and Tesla is being experimentally tested.
Backtesting of data science models like the Confluence model is discussed. The daily timeframe is recommended to start, with a backtest beginning from the bottom of the bear market, such as November 2022.
For copper, buying at tops is discouraged. Nibbling at old resistance levels like $6.20 or $5.30 is suggested, with larger positions added on further dips.
EOS experienced profit-taking after hitting the psychological level of $10. Selling pressure increased significantly around the $8.88 level, driving the price down. Patience is advised due to its volatility.