Bitcoin se prépare, personne n'est prêt - Les Archives de L'Architecte EP1

This weekly recap of "Architect's Archives" for April 11, 2026, covers significant developments in space, economics, geopolitics, and various financial markets. The mission Artemis 2 successfully returned to Earth, undergoing a challenging atmospheric re-entry. The crew's safe return is a positive indicator for future Artemis missions, 3 and 4, with potential moon landings anticipated within the next one to two years. Economically, the United States saw solid job growth in March 2026, with 178,000 new jobs created. The unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.3%, signaling a resilient labor market and no immediate economic stress. This resilience, however, maintains a restrictive stance from the Federal Reserve. Despite the absence of an imminent recession, the prevailing scenario is stagflation, particularly due to ongoing oil price shocks. The probability of the Fed cutting rates in 2026 is extremely low, estimated at 20-25%. Inflation remains stable but under pressure, with PCE inflation at 2.8% and PCI inflation at 3.3%, slightly below the 3.4% consensus. Negative expectations stem from geopolitical tensions involving Iran, impacting oil and raw material prices, reinforcing the Fed's data-dependent and restrictive monetary policy. The coming weeks are deemed crucial for monetary policy decisions, with the Fed unlikely to cut rates in 2026 and a potential for rate hikes if inflation surpasses 3.5%. Analysts estimate only a 25% chance of a 0.25 point rate cut in 2026, reinforcing the stagflation scenario with growth significantly lower than initially projected by many funds and managers. Geopolitical tensions persist, particularly in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, despite a reopening. The question remains whether the ceasefire will hold. This situation is driving a significant increase in energy prices, directly fueling inflation and increasing multi-market volatility, as uncertainty is a primary concern for investors. Oil is identified as the critical variable, contributing to a global energy shock and the risk of further inflationary waves. Bonds are also under pressure, and equities, especially in transport and industry sectors, remain sensitive. Cryptocurrencies are indirectly affected, though Bitcoin shows short-term resilience. The stock market, while holding its ground, is fragile, with Wall Street lacking clear direction amidst positive employment data and negative macroeconomic indicators. A clear directional trend for 2026 is unlikely. In the crypto market, Bitcoin's performance is macro-dependent, trading between $67,000 and $72,000, or more broadly, $60,000 and $75,000, in recent weeks. It has seen a 24% decline since early 2026, with 90% of altcoins also down. High real interest rates, low global liquidity, and geopolitical uncertainties are negative drivers for crypto. ETF volumes are decreasing, indicating less institutional support, which could lead to a future bottom for Bitcoin. Despite these challenges, Bitcoin shows short-term resilience, forming an encouraging double bottom pattern on the weekly chart. Upcoming key events to monitor include the Fed minutes, US inflation data (the absolute key factor driving all subsequent policy and monetary decisions), unemployment figures, oil prices, and the stability of the Middle East ceasefire. Technical analysis reveals both US Oil and UK Oil trading around $95 per barrel, down from their weekly highs. The VIX has returned to a relatively neutral zone around 20, acting as a support after a period of heightened fear. US short and long-term interest rates continue to rise, with the 30-year rate nearing 5%. European markets show positive progress, with the Euro Stoxx 600 rebounding to 615 points and the CAC 40 reaching 8259 points, recovering significantly from earlier lows. The DXY (US Dollar Index) is at 98.69, near its 50 and 20-day moving averages. Global indices like WPEA and CW8, quoted in euros, have shown strong progress in the last two weeks, with investors who bought at recent lows seeing 5-6% returns. Gold has rebounded over the past three weeks to $4750 after hitting a low of $4100. For cryptocurrencies, the technical analysis indicates an interesting development: a bullish double bottom forming on the price chart, supported by an ascending double bottom on the RSI and a loss of momentum for sellers on the MACD. The total crypto market capitalization is at $2.44 trillion, below the $2.5 trillion mark, with resistance levels at $2.64 trillion (20-day moving average), $2.91 trillion (100-day moving average), and the significant $3 trillion polarity zone. A sustained move above $3 trillion and the previous all-time high of $4.26 trillion would signal a bull run. Stablecoins show a potential distribution phase, possibly heading towards the 200-day moving average at 0.09 on the USDC/USDT to total crypto ratio, currently at 0.11. Bitcoin needs to break past $75,000-$76,000, with further resistance at $78,000 (20-day moving average), $87,000 (100-day moving average), and $97,000 (50-day moving average). A sustained move above $84,000, and especially above $100,000, would confirm a reversal. The 42-46 RSI zone is a long-term polarity zone for Bitcoin, and failure to break through could lead to a drop to $50,000 or even $40,000 by late spring/summer, though this seems unlikely currently given its maintenance above the 200-day moving average. Bitcoin dominance is poised to exit a long-standing range between 58% and 60% since August 2025, likely upwards, suggesting Bitcoin will lead the crypto market's next push. Ethereum has moved above $2150 but faces significant overhead resistance from its moving averages: $2438 (200-day), $2500 (20-day), $3000 (100-day), and $3082 (50-day). A sustained move between $2800 and $3300 would indicate a recovery, with a bull run confirmed above $3400 and past its previous all-time high of $5000. Coinbase continues to struggle with its 200-day moving average, reflecting degradation in crypto mining and industry stocks. US tech stocks like Nvidia and AMD are seeing strong rebounds, with Nvidia moving from $165 to $188 and AMD from $193 to $245, highlighting significant volatility. Microsoft, after a 35% decline from a double top, presented an entry point around its 200-day moving average, near the $345-$352 support level. French stocks like Total exhibit high volatility near potential tops around €80, while Schneider Electric has rebounded to €260 after touching lows around €226, demonstrating strong long-term performance and strategic pivots into data center and electrical equipment. Altcoins remain challenging to project. Tao experienced a setback, possibly due to internal issues, but technically, it found support at its 50 and 100-day moving averages and is currently supported by its 20-day moving average at $240. Despite high trading volumes, the situation isn't dire. Hyper Liquid is another altcoin showing strong short-term upward momentum, potentially forming an ascending parallel channel. It garners significant social media attention due to its successful airdrops that have made some users millionaires. While its fundamentals are strong, a cautionary note is issued against over-investing in a single asset, emphasizing diversification and adaptability. Japanese long-term interest rates (30 and 20 years) are also rising, mirroring US trends. Globally, there's low liquidity and household confidence. The Fed's potential inaction on rates in 2026, coupled with oil-related inflation risks, means 2026 will be a challenging year. The crypto market might face a final downturn, potentially hitting $50,000-$55,000 or even $40,000 if major problems arise, though this seems distant for now. The market presents many questions and few answers, requiring investors to make informed decisions based on available, often fragmented, information and conviction in their chosen models for long-term investment. This recap format, featuring slides for summaries, will be a weekly Saturday morning fixture, with potential for more frequent updates.