วิกฤตน้ำมัน ‘ล้มเป็นโดมิโน’ สะเทือนความมั่นคงอาหารโลก | Morning Wealth 20 เม.ย. 69

On Monday, April 20, 2026, the program discusses the ongoing Middle East situation, specifically the negotiations between the United States and Iran, and its far-reaching global economic impacts. Despite some market highs, the Thai market has not fared well. Analysts suggest that even if the war were to end quickly, its effects would be prolonged, similar to the 1970s oil shocks. The conflict has disrupted global energy infrastructure and trade routes, tightening food security and global finances. This situation is compared to a "stupid war" that undermines strategic well-being, potentially leading to a Suez crisis-like scenario. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical transport route for oil and gas from the Persian Gulf, has been severely affected, leading to a fourfold increase in shipping insurance premiums, even after ceasefires. This instability is seen as a long-term structural risk, particularly impacting Asian countries like India, Japan, South Korea, and China, which heavily rely on Gulf energy. While China adapts with pipelines from Russia and Central Asia, others face significant vulnerabilities without effective alternatives. The disruption extends to the food system, as natural gas is crucial for fertilizer production, and oil is vital for irrigation and transportation. The Persian Gulf, a major fertilizer producer, faces supply disruptions, causing price hikes during the northern hemisphere's planting season, which will inevitably impact future agricultural production. This domino effect starts with production shocks, leading to shortages, increased production costs, and a consumption crisis reflected in soaring food prices, particularly for grains, vegetable oils, and corn. Rising oil prices also make biofuels more attractive, diverting crops from food to energy, further exacerbating food price increases. A less discussed vulnerability is the reliance on oil refineries for fresh water production in the Persian Gulf. Attacks on these facilities, such as those on Island Gate and in Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE, could trigger a water crisis alongside the energy crisis, forcing states to divert vast resources to maintain water security in an already water-scarce region. The global danger level is extremely high, with a convergence of systemic crises: energy fragmentation, tightened food security, disrupted cash flow, and volatile capital and trade routes. The era of cheap energy and smooth globalization is ending, giving way to a fragmented global system with political interventions. Even with a ceasefire, a quick return to normalcy is impossible due to damaged infrastructure and a significant loss of confidence in Persian Gulf transport routes. The increased cost of insurance premiums is a key factor. This conflict, intended to affirm U.S. power, has created a global wound that will last for years, constraining global economic growth and weakening U.S. credibility. Saudi Arabia's Finance Minister, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, highlighted the fragility of the global energy market, noting that despite some political rapprochement between Iran and the U.S., uncertainty remains high. The challenge isn't the amount of oil, but the disrupted transportation system. Current agreements are temporary and insufficient to instill business confidence, as real tensions persist. The gap between the paper market (futures prices) and the real market (high demand and willingness to pay higher spot prices) indicates that financial market tracking is inadequate. Real recovery depends on logistics systems resuming normal operations, transport companies opening new routes, and insurance companies providing affordable coverage. In Thailand, the conflict impacts natural gas imports, especially from Qatar, which accounts for 20% of total imports. Attacks on infrastructure, like Qatar's Lafan source, have led to a 3% loss in global LNG supply, causing prices to surge. The EIC (SCB Economic and Business Research Center) presented three scenarios for LNG prices: a baseline of $18 per million BTU if the war doesn't escalate, $25 if transportation is reduced to 10% through the Hormuz Strait, and $36 if the war expands and the Red Sea is also closed. The loss of Qatar's LNG imports has forced Thailand to accelerate domestic gas procurement, leading to higher natural gas costs and subsequently impacting electricity bills. Thailand's electricity tariff structure comprises a stable base charge and a variable Fuel Adjustment Charge (FT). Rising natural gas costs directly increase the FT. The EIC projects electricity prices to rise from 3.88 baht per unit to 3.95 baht by August, and potentially 4.33 baht by December, averaging 4.1 baht for the year. In a worst-case scenario, if the 36 billion baht debt owed to EGAT (Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand) is repaid in one cycle, prices could surge to 4.9 baht per unit. Long-term, electricity prices are expected to remain above 4 baht. To cope, households are encouraged to use electricity more efficiently and consider alternative sources like solar rooftops, supported by government tax incentives. Businesses should improve machinery for energy efficiency and leverage bank support for carbon-neutral adaptations. The government's role is crucial in adjusting electricity rates flexibly, diversifying costs over time, and addressing EGAT's debt, which could reach 70 billion baht if prices remain suppressed. Long-term strategies include investing in base-load power generation, such as Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and renewable energy with battery storage, and diversifying fuel sources like biomass, biogas, and hydrogen to reduce import dependence and enhance energy security. The IMF's Peter explained that Thailand, being highly dependent on energy imports, is sensitive to price fluctuations. While the IMF assumes an average oil price of $82 per barrel and no prolonged conflict, a worsening scenario would necessitate a reduction in economic estimates. The IMF recommends gradual domestic energy price adjustments, targeted assistance for vulnerable groups over broad subsidies, and maintaining a cautious monetary policy stance. Structural issues like high household debt and weakening assets undermine growth potential. Urgent reforms are needed to improve labor productivity, move towards high-value industries, diversify energy sources, and increase energy efficiency to reduce vulnerability to external shocks. The Thai economic team, led by Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapha, presented a "rebalancing" strategy at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings. This strategy, within a 4T framework, aims to shift economic momentum from external to domestic demand by increasing investment from 22% to 30% of GDP within 3-4 years. The 4Ts are: Targeted support (shifting from blanket subsidies to specific groups), Transition (accelerating clean energy adoption to reduce oil import dependence), Technology (using AI and digital tech for infrastructure upgrade), and Together (public-private partnerships). Thailand is promoting "Direct PPA" and energy storage to support renewable energy at the household level, aiming to overcome regulatory hurdles. The government also emphasizes reskilling and upskilling the workforce, linking it to BOI investment conditions. Regarding public debt, currently at 66% of GDP, a detailed assessment is underway to consider raising the ceiling from 70% to 80% to support investment needs and economic safety amidst uncertainty. This move aims to reassure the market of Thailand's fiscal discipline and clear debt management plan, attracting global investors interested in clean energy.