Bitcoin in April Changed EVERYTHING… The Truth Will Shock You ⚡️📈💥

The current market sentiment for Bitcoin and MicroStrategy is overwhelmingly positive, with numerous indicators pointing towards continued bullish trends, making it challenging to identify bearish signals. Over the past six months, particularly since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has shown a slow but steady recovery, suggesting a record-fast bear market drop of approximately 90 days. Bitcoin's price has recently surged, climbing 3.8% for the week, with a spike to $79,500, marking a 90-day high and a 33% increase from its bottom. MicroStrategy continues its aggressive accumulation strategy, having acquired approximately 38,000 Bitcoin in the last two weeks, bringing their total holdings to 818,000 Bitcoin. At this rate, they could potentially reach one million Bitcoin by August, or certainly by the end of the year, a target actively pursued by Michael Saylor. This significant institutional stacking is a key driver of the market. Several on-chain and market data points reinforce this bullish outlook. The MVRV ratio, Bitcoin dominance (above 60%), and stablecoin supply (at an all-time high, indicating available fuel for crypto) are all showing bullish signals. Long-term holders are not selling; instead, they are accumulating, leading to a highly bullish long-term holder supply trend. Exchange flows indicate accumulation, primarily driven by institutions like ETFs and MicroStrategy, rather than retail investors. The liquid supply of Bitcoin is around 74%, meaning most Bitcoin is locked away and not available for sale. The Fear and Greed Index has shifted dramatically from "extreme fear" to 62, reflecting a significant positive change in market sentiment. Historically, April is the second-best month for Bitcoin after "Moonvember," and this April has been no exception, with Bitcoin up 13%. While historical patterns don't always repeat, this performance is encouraging. The recent pump saw Bitcoin dip to 60K, which many, including Fidelity, considered the bottom. While some experts hope for a 40K price point, it's considered unlikely given the current accumulation trend. Every billion dollars flowing into ETFs is estimated to increase Bitcoin's price by 3.16%, a crucial factor in its upward trajectory. Breaking through the $79,000 resistance level on the ATR model is significant. If Bitcoin can sustain above $79,000 for three days, it could quickly advance to $80,000-$85,000, and potentially $96,000, which is another major resistance level. The highest weekly close since January further underscores the consistent upward movement experienced over the last 90 days. Confluence data points to the short-term holder realized price at $82,000. Reaching this level could act as resistance, as some short-term holders who bought at this price and experienced the dip might sell to break even. However, moving above this level could encourage further buying as investors realize profits. Exchange sell pressure has eased, with long-term holders not selling. However, there are some allegations of market makers like Wintermute moving significant amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges, which could lead to a temporary, possibly contrived, price dump. Investors are advised to be aware that markets can be manipulated by larger forces. Bitcoin's recovery is well underway, with constant accumulation being a highly positive sign. ETF weekly flows have been consistently strong, averaging nearly a billion dollars a week over the last three weeks, with only one negative week in the past nine to ten weeks. This continuous inflow into ETFs is a powerful driver, reinforcing the "up only" trend since January 2026. A notable piece of news is that Bitcoin ETFs have recorded nine consecutive days of inflows, the longest streak since September 2025, even before the "Black Swan event." This indicates a significant shift of TradFi (traditional finance) money into Bitcoin, possibly driven by the scarcity and hard asset characteristics of Bitcoin in an age of AGI, where investors may be seeking alternatives to software and other risky assets. While this is very bullish due to the vast capital in TradFi, retail investors appear to be lagging in participation. A historical trend from Ash Crypto suggests Bitcoin crashes coincide with leadership changes at the Fed. However, given that a "bear market" has already occurred, the impact of a potential new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, might not lead to a similar crash. The Treasury General Account (TGA) currently holds over a trillion dollars, the most since COVID. This available capital could potentially be used to stimulate markets for political reasons, which could indirectly benefit Bitcoin. Bitcoin balances on exchanges are stable at around 2.437 million, down from 2.65 million recently. A significant portion of this is held by major exchanges like Coinbase (855,000 Bitcoin) and Binance (611,000 Bitcoin), but much of it is in custody or held by market makers, not necessarily for sale. A decrease in exchange balances generally signifies reduced supply and is a bullish indicator. Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy continues to be a major accumulator, having bought an additional 3,273 Bitcoin, increasing their holdings by 10% year-to-date. This aggressive buying contrasts with his previous bear market strategy and highlights his conviction that wealth is built during bear markets. While recent purchases were through ATM offerings, which aren't accretive when the NAV premium is below one (currently 0.94), his continuous stacking supports the market. MicroStrategy's STRC (MicroStrategy's stock) is also gaining attention due to its tax advantages, offering an equivalent return of 18.3% (currently 11.5%) compared to typical money market accounts at 3.6%. This significant outperformance is attracting high-net-worth individuals looking to park their money. Betting markets reflect the bullish sentiment, with market odds surging to 71% that Bitcoin will hit $80,000 in April, up from 44% a few days prior. While nearly hitting $80,000 recently, this indicates strong expectations for Bitcoin's near-term performance. Potential risks include an $80,000 or $82,000 rejection at the short-term holder cost basis, leading to a mean reversion to $75,000 or potentially $70,000 in a severe macro event. Geopolitical tensions in Iran and the uncertainty surrounding a new Fed chair are also noted, though the latter is considered unlikely to cause a crash given the recent market action. MicroStrategy's leverage and associated FUD are also acknowledged, but the required CAGR for Bitcoin to make MicroStrategy's strategy viable is considered achievable, especially with continued ETF inflows. Short-term overbought conditions and a potential rotation to altcoins if Bitcoin dominance rises are also possibilities, along with regulatory surprises. On the positive side, continued ETF inflows of a billion dollars a week would likely push Bitcoin past $80,000. MicroStrategy's relentless stacking aims for one million Bitcoin, a goal potentially achievable by August if their current buying pace continues. The prospect of a "pro-crypto Fed" official who understands AI and believes in deflation could lead to interest rate cuts, benefiting Bitcoin. Other positive narratives include the rapid tokenization of real-world assets, record stablecoin liquidity, and strong on-chain metrics like long-term holder accumulation and exchange outflows, all contributing to a bullish outlook and potential new all-time highs. In summary, the market is experiencing a significant positive shift, driven by institutional accumulation, strong ETF flows, and favorable on-chain data. While some risks exist, the overall sentiment and data suggest a continued upward trajectory for Bitcoin, with key resistance levels at $80,000 and $82,000 to overcome before potentially moving towards $85,000-$90,000.