Bitcoin repart sur fond de cessez le feu !

Welcome to the broadcast for Wednesday, April 8, 2026. A significant piece of news today is a two-week ceasefire, effective immediately, in exchange for a total and immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While it's too early to draw definitive conclusions, markets have already reacted positively to this information. We will monitor if this calm holds and if the VIX, which had reached around 26, will indeed trend back towards 20, indicating a period of tranquility. The Euro Stoxx 50 immediately benefited, up 3.62% to 5909 points this morning. The Nasdaq futures are at 25175, up 3.30%, touching the 20-day moving average. Similarly, the S&P 500 futures are up 2.63% to 680 points, also at the 20-day moving average. Technically, if there's a more significant market correction in 2026, it would resemble a "dead cat bounce," a pattern often seen in the crypto market. The dollar has retreated, with the DXY falling towards 98 points after holding at 100 for some time. US Oil and UK Oil also saw declines during the session; UK Oil dropped from 111 dollars to 93.70 this morning, and US Oil is around 95.64, down from nearly 118, possibly signaling a top for oil barrels. Precious metals are also performing well. Gold is at 482, having corrected significantly from 4100 three weeks ago, almost touching its 50-day moving average. Investment banks maintain a 12-month target of 5500 dollars for Gold, representing a 700-dollar increase from today's price. Silver, after dropping below the 61-dollar zone from its February 2026 candle, is back at the 20-day moving average at 77 dollars, with an institutional target of 90 to 100 dollars for the next 6 to 12 months. In the crypto market, stablecoin spending continues, but the ratio remains high at around 0.1. This suggests a local micro-top, clearly reflected in the crypto total market cap by a double bottom, just above the 100-week moving average. This is very positive. The next steps are to break through 2650, where the 20-day moving average awaits, then rally to the 100-day moving average at 2900, and finally reach the market pivot around 3000 billion. Bitcoin is nearing 72000 this morning. It needs to convincingly cross the 75-78 range, then teleport to 83,000. The 100-day moving average is at 87500, and the 50-day moving average is almost aligned with 100,000 dollars, just below at around 97,000. RSI and MACD indicate a search for a bottom, as discussed in previous broadcasts. While it may seem too easy, if the 2026 bear market for Bitcoin is only a 50% decline, it would be a positive development, breaking from a past where corrections were typically 85-90% or even 77% in the previous cycle. A 50% drop would be good for future growth. However, such a significant reduction in volatility suggests that Bitcoin might not reach 300,000 or 400,000 in the coming years. A more logical target by 2030 would be in the range of 150,000 to 200,000, consistent with observed volatility shifts. Despite the previous cycle’s low of 15,500 and subsequent peak of 125,000-126,000, which was a 7x increase, current conditions imply a different trajectory. Ethereum is also poised for action, recovering 2150 and holding near the 2300 zone. It needs to reclaim the 200-day moving average at 2435, the range median at 2800, and then target 3200-3400, eventually aiming for 4900-5000 dollars. Given the price contraction in the 900 to 5000 dollar range since May and November 2021, a breakout above 5000 with strong volume, driven possibly by institutional interest and the potential for Ethereum spot ETFs similar to Bitcoin in 2024, could lead to a phenomenal surge. This remains a speculative bet, though Ethereum's fundamentals are generally good. Regarding miners, Terra Wolf remains highly valued. While it traded at 52 cents in 2022-2023, it's now at 16-17 dollars, already quite high. Riot Blockchain is showing signs of recovery, defending the 85-dollar support and the 20-day moving average at 84.58, which is positive. Coinbase, at 175 dollars, is attempting to form a future double bottom around its 200-day moving average. This behavior aligns with the idea that if Bitcoin is treated like a stock or commodity, professionals and institutions will monitor its market behavior around this key moving average. Coinbase has repeatedly stopped around the 150-180 dollar range, a significant polarity zone. In American stocks, Take-Two Interactive is worth noting today in anticipation of GTA 6's release by year-end, assuming no further delays. It has found support at 190 dollars, needs to reclaim 215, and its all-time high is 264. While less appealing than when it was at 122 dollars and subsequently doubled, its low RSI and MACD suggest it might be a good entry point, as it's generally better to buy when oscillators are near oversold conditions. For French stocks, Air Liquide, which was dismissed by social media weeks ago, has seen a rebound. From 155 euros in late January 2026, it's now at 182, with an all-time high of 187. This may not be the optimal time to enter such a stable, long-term performing stock, especially given its bonus scheme for long-term shareholders (dividends or free shares). While its progression is linear, and not much has happened since July 2023 (150 euros) to its May 2025 peak (186 euros), its long-term chart over 30-50 years shows a consistently bullish trend. Given its management, assets, ambitions, and expanding scope, its outlook remains positive. Algorand is up 5%. It's revisiting a low not seen in a while, so it might be bottoming. However, I personally wouldn't take the risk on this one, despite its discussion on social media. Tao Bitfen is touching its 50-day and 100-day moving averages at 340-350 dollars. Its immediate upward momentum remains to be seen, but it's positive. Hyper Liquid is defending its 50-day moving average at 39 dollars, potentially breaking 40 to rally to 48 and then its all-time high of 60 dollars. If the crypto market enters a bull run, Hyper Liquid should logically achieve a new all-time high. AVAX continues to trade tightly between 8 and 10 dollars, presenting an interesting speculative point, though its fundamentals should be verified. Solana has been on support at 80-85 dollars for a while. It needs to reclaim the 200-day moving average, which aligns with the 20-day moving average around 105-106, then the range median at 135, to eventually target its all-time high above 250 dollars (it almost reached 295). Oscillators are settling, possibly signaling a positive pre-configuration for the crypto market. However, I remain cautious due to rapidly shifting global political events. AAVE has been subject to recent social media discussions, with claims that Caoslab, a former security provider, had excessive financial and exclusivity demands. It's crucial to maintain nuance in the crypto market and in life; extremes are rarely good. While AAVE, even in its V4, Pro, and more centralized corporate form, can still play an interesting role, a long-standing concern is whether institutional players like BlackRock will prefer in-house solutions over existing companies. The current debate around AAVE, with strong opinions from both sides on social media, makes it difficult to get unbiased information. For a prudent investor, it might be best to stay away from AAVE for now. Those willing to take more risk might monitor it, acknowledging that it might be shifting established norms, not necessarily for the better. I hold very little AAVE, only on old, forgotten portfolios. I don't feel an immediate need to be exposed to it, but I will monitor it with interest. Xiaomi (ticker 1810) is still in a descending parallel channel. If it reclaims the 368 zone on the Hong Kong Exchange, it could become interesting. Its oscillators are very low and settling, similar to "shitcoins" in the crypto market. This raises the question of whether 2026 will bring a major correction (20% or more) to the US market, or just a minor scare with oil-related issues. A resolution with Iran seems likely to unfold in stages. Factually, Bitcoin's current movement resembles the period between March and April 2025, before a pump, rather than the bear flag between November 2025 and January 2026. Social media offers two interpretations: a double bottom near the 200-day moving average, which is plausible if Bitcoin is now an institutionalized asset, or another bear flag pointing to 40,000-50,000 dollars as a final destination. A 50% bear market for crypto has historically been unprecedented, and while we hope this time is different, we must remain vigilant. Ethereum, I believe, is slowly preparing for a surprising turnaround in the next four years. This aligns with 2026 predictions, extending to the next 3-4 years. If institutions can successfully market it to wealthy clients, similar to how Bitcoin was branded as "digital gold," Ethereum could see significant progress. While it carries more risk than Bitcoin, especially given its price action in recent years, both projects excite me the most. It's refreshing to see some green in the crypto market after quarters of suffering for all participants, from small to large portfolios. Bear markets are never pleasant. I wish you an excellent day. We'll reconnect this weekend. Stay cautious. Disconnect from toxic, biased social media information that can lead to poor decisions. I believe we are in the right place at the right time across multiple markets. For crypto, the question until autumn remains: are we truly in a four-year cycle for crypto and Bitcoin, potentially bottoming around October-November 2026, or are we rewriting a new, longer cycle with its own rules? If the 200-day moving average is sufficient for Bitcoin's correction, it opens a very interesting chapter for long-term investors, allowing us to better anticipate Bitcoin's annualized returns, knowing that in the worst-case market cataclysms, we would revert to the 200-week moving average, which today represents a 50% drop. This provides a logical investment thesis for portfolio allocation in crypto and Bitcoin. Have a great day, and see you this weekend. Ciao.