
This Stock will be my Next Palantir‼️
Audio Summary
AI Summary
The investor discusses recent stock market performance, highlighting AMD's continued strength while noting significant drops in SoFi, Coinbase, and others. The core of the video focuses on earnings reports from Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, followed by a deep dive into Cheesecake Factory and SoFi as potential investments.
Meta's earnings are described as a "B-grade" income statement. While revenue growth was strong at 33% (second best among the "Mag Seven" not named NVIDIA), Meta's costs outpaced revenue growth. Cost of revenue increased by 35%, R&D by 46%, and total costs and expenses by 35%. Income from operations grew by 30%, which is less than revenue growth, indicating a lack of operating leverage. A significant one-off income tax benefit of over $5 billion boosted net income by 61% and diluted EPS by 62%, making the profitability appear better than it fundamentally was. The investor points out two major concerns: a 5% sequential drop in daily active people (attributed partly to the war in Iran and WhatsApp restrictions in Russia) and a massive increase in capital expenditures (CapEx) guidance to $125-$145 billion for the year. This elevated CapEx, following a prior increase, raises questions about its necessity and justification, with the investor suggesting it could negatively impact profitability for years. Despite the stock's post-earnings drop, the investor believes Mark Zuckerberg "comes through in the end" long-term, but warns of potential significant price declines (e.g., to $350) in the interim, citing a similar situation in 2022 where the stock fell over 70%.
Amazon receives an "A-grade" income statement. Net sales grew 17% year-over-year, with operating expenses growing at a slower pace of 15%, indicating operating leverage. Operating income grew 30%. Technology and infrastructure costs were a concern, up 29%, but offset by strong performance in other areas, including G&A which decreased by 2%. A significant one-off boosted income before taxes by 84%. The key driver for Amazon's strong performance and positive after-hours movement was the AWS segment, which saw revenue growth of 28% year-over-year, its fastest in over three years, exceeding Wall Street expectations. Amazon's advertising business also showed robust growth, up 24%. The investor considers Amazon a consistent "buy" throughout its history, with significant long-term growth potential. The high CapEx spending is deemed justifiable due to the clear growth story in AWS and advertising.
Google is awarded an "A+" grade. Revenue grew 22%, with operating income growing even faster at 30%. While R&D and sales and marketing expenses outpaced revenue growth, G&A was managed well. A substantial "other income" of $37.7 billion significantly boosted net income and EPS, though income tax expenses also doubled. The primary reason for Google's strong performance and investor confidence, despite a significant CapEx increase to $190 billion, is the Google Cloud business. This segment grew revenue by an impressive 63% year-over-year, reaching over $20 billion in the quarter, justifying the increased investment. However, the investor states that Google is no longer a "buy" at its current price, recommending it as a "hold" or "sell" for those looking to enter the stock, as the best buying opportunity was in the previous year.
Microsoft also delivered an "A-grade" income statement. Revenue grew 18%, and while cost of revenue increased by 22%, R&D, sales and marketing, and G&A expenses were kept relatively in check. Operating income grew 20%, and net income and diluted EPS grew 23%, both exceeding revenue growth. The company announced $190 billion in capital spending for 2026, about $35 billion higher than expected, driven by soaring memory prices. A key concern for Microsoft is the Azure cloud growth, which is around 39-40%, showing no significant acceleration compared to AWS and Google Cloud. The investor expresses less confidence in Microsoft's stock price over the next 12-18 months due to aggressive spending, contrasting it with chip-related companies.
The investor identifies NVIDIA, AMD, and Micron as the primary beneficiaries of the massive CapEx spending by big tech. These chip-related companies are expected to "rake in money" for the next several years. While the investor is less confident in Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon's stock prices in the short to medium term due to their high spending, they are highly confident in NVIDIA, AMD, and Micron. These chip companies are seen as the "short-term play" until the larger tech companies moderate their spending. Once these companies ease their CapEx, it will be positive for Meta and Microsoft, improving their cash flows. In the short term (12-18 months), owning one of NVIDIA, AMD, or Micron is strongly recommended.
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is rated a "B+" income statement. Revenues grew to $978 million. Food and beverage costs, as well as labor expenses, fell as a percentage of revenue, which is positive. However, other operating costs and expenses increased. Income from operations grew to $55 million from $52 million year-over-year. A debt extinguishment loss in the prior year made net income appear significantly higher this quarter ($49.5 million vs. $32.9 million), with diluted EPS at $1.02 versus $0.67. The investor considers Cheesecake Factory a "buy" at $65.50, having bought it much lower. The company has significant expansion opportunities with its North Italia and Flower Child brands, alongside its core Cheesecake Factory chain, which is described as an "ATM machine." With a forward P/E around 15, it's considered a stable company with a good dividend, free from the AI chip spending concerns plaguing big tech. The stock is projected to go "100 plus long term."
The video then highlights SoFi as an "incredible stock to buy now" with an "A+ grade" income statement. Total interest income rose 31%, while interest expense grew 16%, leading to a 39% increase in net interest income. Loan origination sales and technology products and solutions saw mixed results, but loan platform fees were up 49% and other income surged 87%, contributing to a 43% growth in total net revenue. Despite a high sales and marketing expense growth of 41%, net revenue outgrew it. Income before income taxes grew 150%, and net income grew 135% even with a significant increase in income tax expense. Diluted EPS doubled to $0.12 from $0.06. SoFi's member count reached 14.7 million, up from 10.9 million, with potential for over 100 million members long-term. The Galileo tech platform also reversed a decline, growing to 133 million platform accounts. The investor believes SoFi has the potential to become a "$100 plus stock long term" or a "$50 plus stock within five years," acknowledging the inherent risk of bankruptcy in the banking sector. However, they praise CEO Anthony Noto's execution and see SoFi as a growing threat to traditional banks and other fintech companies.