Ahora, todo en mano de los Bee Gees. José Luis Cava

Good morning from Madrid. Following the American electorate's protest vote against Donald Trump, we must consider future actions. The financial sector is bewildered, prompting a turn to charts for answers. Today, we'll address several key questions. First, will Donald Trump bomb Iran after the midterm elections? Examining the continuous crude oil future chart, we see an upward trend with a deep correction, currently falling towards the $90-$83 support zone. The short-term downward trend suggests the market is not pricing in new bombings in Iran. Second, what will Bezos and Trump do with artificial intelligence (AI)? I believe AI is not in a bubble; current bearish sentiment stems from financing difficulties and increased credit default swap premiums. AI requires significant funding for infrastructure, competing with the public sector for liquidity. This may force Kevin Warsh to relax his restrictive monetary policy. The election campaign exploited the issue of data center construction, particularly in Texas, potentially delaying projects. However, once electoral fervor subsides, these projects will likely resume, especially given the AI "war" with China. Energy, pollution, and water issues exist but are solvable. Resuming these projects would relaunch economic activity and consume substantial energy. If AI projects halt, the U.S. economy could face recession. After the midterm elections, neither Ben nor Kevin Warsh will prioritize stock market performance or economic relaunch. The key indicator is the 10-year American bond yield chart. A fall below 4.80% would signal a U.S. economic slowdown. If long-term interest rates fall, Kevin Warsh, previously a restrictive policymaker, will likely have to relax his stance. The 2-year note yield chart shows resistance at 5%, a psychological barrier for new Fed rate hikes, especially if AI investment slows. I suspect a recession or crisis might be triggered to allow Kevin to inject liquidity, renewing public debt and financing AI. If liquidity is provided, Democrats would support buying shares in strategic AI companies. A stock market crash, blamed on recession, could lead Kevin to inject liquidity, with bipartisan agreement to buy AI stocks, causing markets to bottom and rise. This would take time, as newly elected Democrats take office in January 2027, suggesting a potential crisis trigger then. Other areas for bipartisan agreement include healthcare and clean energy. Given data centers' high energy consumption, the energy sector should be part of investment portfolios, despite current short-term price drops. Regarding short-term stock market expectations, yesterday's video highlighted deep bearish sentiment, extreme fear, and fund managers selling everything, including gold and tech stocks, due to high leverage. However, before election results, strong hands bought significant put options at 7500 and 7300 strike prices. This suggests a mini-capitulation and a negative gamma environment. In such an environment, market bounces are amplified. We believe markets will likely rise until the November OPEX. In China, the CSI300 index rebounded sharply, as did gold prices. This occurred because the Chinese Communist Party intervened by injecting liquidity and buying, triggering stop-losses for shorts and causing a rebound. This indicates China's concern and intent to inject further liquidity. I offer these reflections, acknowledging the widespread bewilderment, and encourage critical observation of market and chart evolution.