ฟัง ‘เอกนิติ’ เปิดแผน ‘พ.ร.ก.กู้เงิน-เพดานหนี้-VAT-เจรจา Moody’s’ | Morning Wealth 23 เม.ย. 69

On April 23, 2026, the Morning Well program discussed various critical issues, including geopolitical tensions, the domestic energy situation, and economic outlooks. The program began by highlighting the political relationship between China and Japan, which has seen a significant impact on air travel. In March alone, approximately 2,700 flights between the two countries were canceled, and this trend is expected to continue into early May, affecting China's Labor Day holiday period. This reduction in flights, particularly from the Chinese side, is largely attributed to political tensions, including Japan's Prime Minister's comments on deploying troops in the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict and a Japanese warship sailing through the Taiwan Strait. This has led to a travel advisory from Beijing and full refunds offered by some Chinese airlines for flights to Japan, despite China previously being Japan's largest source of foreign tourists. Domestically, the latest energy situation remains uncertain due to unresolved issues in the Middle East. The US has indefinitely postponed a ceasefire and demanded a clear answer from Iran regarding its nuclear program, with no deadline set. The Strait of Hormuz remains tense, with Iran closing it and the US imposing maritime blockades. This geopolitical instability has driven crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, reaching their highest level in nearly four years and increasing pressure on the US economy and President Trump to resolve the conflict. Despite these rising energy prices, global stock markets, including the S&P 500, NASDAC, and Dow Jones, have seen significant gains, with investors seemingly not giving much weight to the prolonged Middle East situation. Regarding Thailand's domestic economic situation, the Minister of Finance, Dr. Ekniti Nitithanpraphas, addressed concerns about public finances. The government is considering issuing an emergency decree to borrow up to 500 billion baht to prepare for an energy crisis and support vulnerable groups, without needing to extend the debt ceiling, as there is still approximately 800 billion baht available within the current 70% debt-to-GDP limit. The borrowed funds will be used for two main areas: relief for vulnerable groups (up to 200 billion baht) and economic restructuring to reduce reliance on oil and imported electricity, focusing on solar power and promoting electric vehicles (another 200 billion baht). The remaining 100 billion baht will be allocated to foundational infrastructure projects, such as flood and drought mitigation. The Minister confirmed that a VAT increase is not currently being considered, as the Thai economy is not yet ready, despite the country's relatively low VAT rate. A meeting of four key economic agencies—the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Thailand, the Economic Development Council, and the National Budget Office—acknowledged the significant impact of the war in the East on the Thai economy, expecting higher inflation and a growth rate of less than 2% this year (projected at 1.4%, rising to 2.2% next year). The government's 2027 budget will remain in deficit, focusing on cutting unnecessary expenses and increasing competitiveness. Moodies has upgraded Thailand's credit rating outlook from negative to positive, maintaining a BAA1 rating, due to the government's disciplined fiscal policies and commitment to structural reforms. However, Dr. Ekniti emphasized the need for continued vigilance and preparation for ongoing global crises. The Ministry of Industry, led by Minister Warawut Silpa-archa, is preparing to restructure and upgrade domestic industries in collaboration with the World Bank. A proposed 100 billion baht fund aims to enhance the competitiveness of Thai industries globally, with a focus on attracting private sector participation. The initiative will address challenges such as the lack of a "New Economy" structure and external pressures. The Ministry's strategy involves four pillars: People Engagement (resolving conflicts and tracking issues), Policy Execution (advancing future industries like digital technology, AI, EVs, and healthcare, and promoting smart industry groups), Legal Reform (amending laws to remove investment obstacles and align with international standards), and establishing a change committee with the Chamber of Commerce and the Board of Investment (BOI) to promote a transformation fund for SMEs and innovation. The BOI, chaired by Dr. Ekniti Nitithan, will discuss new investment promotion conditions to ensure maximum benefit for Thailand, addressing concerns about industries that do not utilize domestic supply chains or create local employment. The program also addressed the impact of global events on consumer goods, specifically condoms. KKB, a major global condom manufacturer, announced a price increase of up to 30% due to rising production costs stemming from the Middle East conflict, which has led to shortages of oil-related chemicals and increased raw material prices. The company anticipates strong demand, as condoms are considered essential, especially during economic uncertainty when consumers tend to be more cautious about future expenses. An economist, Dr. Mingkwan Thongphruk, discussed the significance of credit ratings, likening them to a country's report card that measures political stability, fiscal health, and economic outlook. While Thailand's credit rating outlook has improved, Dr. Mingkwan cautioned against complacency, noting that other rating agencies have not yet made similar upgrades and some ASEAN countries have faced downgrades. She emphasized the need for the government to expedite fiscal discipline, increase revenue (potentially through tax reforms like VAT, floating tax, and land taxes), and reduce inefficient spending. Dr. Mingkwan also suggested exploring alternative revenue streams, such as a sovereign wealth fund, similar to Singapore's successful model, to bolster national finances without solely relying on increased taxes. The discussion concluded with a call for clear, accessible, and measurable policies to address both short-term stability and long-term economic restructuring. Dr. Mingkwan stressed the importance of targeted policies to help households and businesses save energy, promote energy-efficient practices, and for the government to lead by example in energy conservation. The overall message was that while Thailand's economic outlook shows signs of improvement, continuous monitoring of spending, revenue generation, and the implementation of effective policies are crucial to maintain financial stability and address ongoing challenges. The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) reported a decline in the industrial confidence index in March 2026, primarily due to the Middle East conflict, which led to higher energy and transportation costs, raw material shortages (e.g., GM plastic pellets, aluminum), and shipping delays. Exports to the Middle East, particularly for automotive air conditioning and wood products, were affected. Concerns also include the domestic economy, interest rates, and the projected increase in the Fuel Adjustment Charge (FT) for May to August 2026. The FTI proposed several measures to the government, including reducing excise tax on fuel, stabilizing fuel prices, preventing oil stockpiling, promoting energy conservation, and temporarily suspending the export of scrap metal, aluminum, and paper to ensure domestic raw material supply. In related news, Siam Cement Public Company Limited (SCC) announced the temporary shutdown of its Long Son Petrochemical (LSP) plant in Vietnam due to raw material shortages caused by the protracted Middle East situation. This shutdown, expected around mid-May, will incur an estimated cost of 250 million baht per month. SCC is implementing measures to mitigate impacts, including sourcing raw materials from outside the Strait of Hormuz, despite higher costs, and accelerating maintenance work and a project to increase gas raw material supply at the LSP plant. The Ministry of Energy also issued a new announcement, effective April 20, to enhance oversight and monitoring of fuel prices. Key points include repealing previous definitions of "fuel" for comprehensive oversight, assigning a new definition for "oil price structure" based on EPPO's website, requiring oil retailers to clearly display per-liter selling prices and remaining volumes for gasoline, gasohol, and high-speed diesel, and ensuring advertised prices do not exceed the retail price structure. Refineries and oil storage facilities are required to report crude oil costs, refined oil selling prices, and refining costs to the Ministry of Energy weekly, and provide shipping invoice data for gasoline and diesel products. These reporting requirements are retroactive to February 1, 2026.