8 Years of Crypto Trading Advice in 40 Minutes

The speaker, with eight years of full-time crypto trading experience, including multi-figure gains and significant losses, aims to accumulate 100 Bitcoins for long-term holding. This video offers 13 pieces of advice derived from three full market cycles, having navigated the industry since 2014, built DApps, invested in over 100 crypto startups, and worked at VC and market-making firms. The speaker's portfolio peaked in the high seven figures but also dropped to a couple hundred thousand during bear markets. Survival in crypto is rare, with about 95% of participants getting wiped out each cycle. **1. HODL Bitcoin and Trade Everything Else:** Bitcoin is the highest probability path to wealth in crypto. Trading requires repeated accuracy, while holding Bitcoin requires being right once. Most people should simply buy and hold Bitcoin. Trading altcoins responsibly is only advisable after experiencing a full four-year market cycle, including gains, losses, euphoria, and bear market grind. The speaker holds Bitcoin and trades altcoins only in specific windows, such as when Bitcoin confirms an uptrend on the weekly timeframe, signaling a shift from bear to bull market. Altcoin gains are then converted back into Bitcoin when Bitcoin's uptrend breaks. It's crucial to separate the "trader brain" from the "holder brain." **2. Keep 50% of Your Portfolio in Bitcoin at All Times:** This rule, if followed, would have significantly increased the speaker's gains in the last bull market. While some altcoins outperform Bitcoin short-term during popularity surges, their drawdowns are exponentially worse, and gains are rarely sustained. The optimal time for altcoin exposure (50% or less of the portfolio) is when Bitcoin is in a bull market, especially after making a new local high and staying above the 50-week simple moving average. During bear markets, the speaker holds 80% Bitcoin and 20% cash. Diversifying across many altcoins is not risk management; Bitcoin and cash are the safest positions. Keeping at least 50% in Bitcoin prevents FOMO-driven overexposure to altcoins and protects against significant drawdowns. **3. Learn to Read the Macro:** Macroeconomic factors, especially M2 money supply and quantitative easing (QE), significantly impact crypto. When M2 money supply expands and QE starts, altcoins tend to follow Bitcoin's upward trend. Conversely, quantitative tightening (QT) compresses all risk-on assets. It's crucial to understand that different macro signals affect different assets. Rate cuts benefit Bitcoin, but Fed balance sheet expansion (QE) specifically unlocks altcoin outperformance. Confusing these signals can lead to being overexposed to altcoins at the wrong time. Precision in understanding macro signals and their target markets is essential for serious crypto traders. **4. Set an Accumulation Target and Stick to It:** The speaker's personal target is 100 Bitcoin, aiming to hold it for decades, anticipating a potential value of $1 million per Bitcoin. A realistic goal prevents chasing excessive gains and allows for dialing back risk to focus on holding. Accumulation strategies evolve; early on, the speaker was aggressive with altcoins, but later found narratives shifting too quickly, requiring buying and selling alts within three months. The focus is on increasing core Bitcoin holdings over multiple cycles to reach a long-term goal, rather than maximizing gains in any single cycle. **5. Study Your Own Trading Pattern and Recognize What Makes a Winning Trade:** The best trades share three elements: conviction, right market timing, and awareness of popular narratives. Conviction comes with experience, understanding that altcoins rebound in bull markets. The best altcoin trading environment is when Bitcoin momentum is undeniable and retail interest surges. Being aware of narratives, like Dogecoin's rise in early 2021 driven by TikTok and Elon Musk, or Superverse in early 2024, is crucial. Timing is paramount; even fundamentally strong projects won't perform if Bitcoin isn't in a bull market. **6. Never Full Port:** Never put your entire portfolio into a single position, regardless of how good the opportunity appears or how successful a winning streak. All crypto projects carry a risk of 90% drawdowns or even rug pulls. The speaker recounts losing significant capital in DeFi Kingdoms due to market reversal and being rug-pulled for over a million dollars on a DeFi ICO, both occurring after winning streaks. Consolidate wins into a base position, and do not increase position sizes during winning streaks; instead, compound extra profits into Bitcoin. This limits potential losses to the initial position size. **7. In the Bear Market, Don't Worry About Anything Else Other Than Survival:** Bear markets are for surviving, not for finding the best trades or catching bottoms. Most people leave during bear markets and miss bull market opportunities. The goal is to stay in the market, observe, and keep the portfolio liquid, while minimizing active trading. During bear markets, the speaker focuses on building businesses, creating content, networking, and researching new projects, rather than micromanaging the portfolio. This allows for readiness when the market turns. **8. Do Not Trust the Euphoria:** When "this time is different" and "super cycle" narratives emerge, it's an exit signal. The speaker admits falling for this trap twice in 2021 and 2025. Social pressure to find the next 100x can lead to forced trades. Nobody consistently achieves 10x or 100x gains; often, people cast a wide net and only highlight successful picks. When consensus forms around a narrative, the trade is already crowded, signaling time to plan an exit. **9. Every Trade Needs a Target and a Time-Based Deadline:** Before entering a trade, define a take-profit price/valuation and a maximum holding timeframe. Price-based targets use technical analysis (resistance, Fibonacci extensions/retracements), while fundamental targets are based on fair valuation. Timeframes are crucial because crypto narratives are ephemeral, typically lasting one to three months. Catalyst-driven trades (protocol upgrades, exchange listings) also require specific timelines. This framework reduces emotional decision-making. **10. Take Profits Earlier Than Everybody Else:** Profit windows in crypto are shrinking with each cycle. What worked in 2017 (one long altcoin wave) didn't work in 2021 (three 6-9 month cycles), and even less so in 2024 (3-month cycles). Always be conservative with profit-taking. If unsure, take profit; you can re-enter but cannot "unlose." Most altcoins eventually give back all gains to Bitcoin. Rotating profits back into Bitcoin has consistently proven to be the winning long-term strategy, as Bitcoin establishes higher floors in bear markets and higher ceilings in bull markets. **11. Keep Your Trading Toolset Simple:** Avoid overcomplicating setups with too many indicators. The speaker uses TradingView for charting with three simple moving averages (50, 100, 200-week) for long-term trends and naked chart patterns (higher highs/lows, lower highs/lows, sideways chop) for short-term trends. The key is to determine if Bitcoin is in a long-term weekly uptrend (bull market) and its short-term daily trend to inform altcoin trading decisions. On-chain signals like hash ribbons, Puell Multiple, and realized price are useful for identifying long-term Bitcoin bottoms, especially in bear markets. Overlays of fundamental data (global liquidity, gold-to-Bitcoin ratio, altcoin sector performance vs. Bitcoin) are also used. Advanced DEX trading terminals, like Definitive, enable sophisticated orders (limit, stop-loss, take-profit) for on-chain tokens, mirroring centralized exchange functionality. **12. Trading Altcoins is 90% About Identifying the Timing of the Market and 10% About Picking the Specific Altcoin:** Beginners often overemphasize picking "special" altcoins based on founders, VCs, or technology. In reality, success is 90% dependent on Bitcoin's market euphoria. In a Bitcoin bull market with new all-time highs, many popular altcoins will perform well. The 10% involves basic research to eliminate scams. The discipline to deploy capital only during euphoric Bitcoin stages, understanding the timeframe of these cycles, and taking profit before they end, is crucial. **13. Always Have Your Own Personal Belief on the Future of Bitcoin:** If Bitcoin doesn't continue to appreciate, altcoin trading is dead. Traders must believe in Bitcoin's long-term future. The speaker targets Bitcoin at $300-$400k in 10 years and $1 million in 15-20 years. This projection accounts for diminishing returns each cycle but assumes Bitcoin continues to make new all-time highs. Reaching $1 million requires Bitcoin to capture roughly 3% of total global wealth, a modest ask compared to gold's current 5%. The main risk to Bitcoin's long-term value is the rise of AI/AGI, which might favor a different decentralized store of value or a "digital oil" tied to AI compute, given Bitcoin's limitations for payments and volatility. In summary, the core message is to secure Bitcoin gains first, have a long-term belief in Bitcoin's future, and understand the high volatility difference between altcoin trading and Bitcoin holding. Bitcoin is the only asset that consistently prints higher floors and ceilings across cycles. Altcoins are for amplifying gains during bull markets, but holding Bitcoin is paramount for long-term wealth preservation and growth.