Important.

Bullish market predictions have been accurate over the past week, with the market showing signs of a bottom, as suggested previously. Calls on the Qs, made two weeks to 45 days out, have seen returns over 100%. Hardware stocks have also performed well since the ceasefire announcement, aligning with SpaceX IPO updates that hinted at a potential $2 trillion valuation and the use of Intel's 14A fab for Tesla-style chips in 2028-2029. This combination of events made for a strong bullish signal in hardware, with the sector seeing over 50% gains since last week's market low. Institutions are now echoing this bullish sentiment. Bank of America, days after initial calls, declared the ceasefire "likely durable," translating to a bullish outlook for risk assets, including crypto, stocks, and bonds. They believe peak yields and spreads are behind us, though progress will be uneven. The bank advises constructive credit positioning, disciplined extension into duration (bonds), and a focus on tax-efficient income as markets recover. Regarding inflation, one-year expectations, often discussed on social media, are considered volatile and less reliable. A more pertinent indicator is the 5-year 5-year break-even inflation expectation, which measures projected inflation starting five years from now and extending for another five years. This metric has shown a net drift lower despite the ongoing situation in Iran, suggesting that the market isn't necessarily anticipating a prolonged stagflationary period akin to the 1970s. However, oil prices remain a concern, still up 40% from January, with potential broader implications from the ongoing blockade. Goldman Sachs has also noted a bounce in software stocks, which are still 30-35% down from their peak, leading to speculation about a potential bottom. Analysis of hedge fund and institutional prime book exposure for US software reveals a significant reduction in net and long-short exposure, particularly since late 2025, driven by new AI models and increased competition. This decline in institutional exposure, in the presenter's view, might signal a good buying opportunity for long-term investors looking for undervalued assets with strong fundamentals, such as high free cash flow, fortress balance sheets, strong pricing power, and low valuations. Despite this, Goldman Sachs indicates that short selling in the software space has seen some re-deployment, suggesting a continued bearish outlook for the near term, and last week, software selling accounted for 60% of net selling in the market. The situation with the blockade in Iran appears to be stabilizing. The ceasefire is holding, with a reduction in attacks in Lebanon and no reported drone or missile launches from Iran, nor strikes from the U.S. or Israel. The "Donald Trump blockade" has seen six vessels obey commands to reverse, with no boardings or interdictions yet. UN General Secretary Antonio expects talks to resume soon. The blockade is described as "selective" or a "permeable barrier," meaning ships not visiting Iranian ports are not subject to it. This approach allows some commercial shipping to continue through the Strait of Hormuz, with about 20 vessels traversing it in the last 24 hours without docking in Iran. Saudi Arabia, initially concerned, has maintained its oil exports at approximately 7 million barrels a day by utilizing an east-west pipeline to bypass the Persian Gulf and export via the Red Sea. This has contributed to a decrease in oil futures prices, with June WTI contracts at $88 and May contracts at $92, both below the $100 threshold, and Brent at $95. Discussions are ongoing for a potential deal where Iran would agree not to enrich uranium for 20 years. This is seen as ironic, given that the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), which the U.S. previously withdrew from, would have prevented Iranian enrichment for 10-15 years. The current offer could be a negotiating starting point, potentially leading to an outcome similar to the original JCPOA. In other positive developments, Europe is planning a coalition to clear and control the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. concludes its involvement, with Germany, France, and the UK considering inviting China and India to participate. Economically, recent data has been bullish. Weekly ADP payrolls came in at 39,250 for the week ending March 28th, indicating strong job growth. However, concerns remain about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports unemployment, particularly regarding labor force participation, which some argue might artificially keep unemployment rates low. While the current market conditions present opportunities, it's advised against an "all-in margin bull" approach due to remaining economic risks. Nonetheless, the overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, especially if the ceasefire holds. The presenter also shared personal investment news, including the acquisition of a $2 million property expected to appreciate significantly, and a new remote-controlled car for his son. He encourages viewers to look beyond the NASDAQ for investment opportunities, suggesting that the real value lies in underlying components, given that the NASDAQ 100 is nearing all-time highs.