The 10-Year Warning + BTC Bottom IN, Plus what else will AI Eat? Prepare for 🚀

The speaker opens by setting a tone for a "spicy" Friday, discussing various "crazy things" happening, including a "10-year warning" which they find generous, and the question of whether Bitcoin has bottomed. They mention their previous belief that 60k or 64k was the bottom for Bitcoin, and are pleased that macro experts are now echoing this sentiment. The speaker thanks mods and specific individuals in the chat. They reiterate that the "10-year warning" isn't dire, but rather good if true, and that the content is not financial advice. Moving into market sentiment, the fear and greed index for the stock market is at 66, while crypto is out of "extreme fear" at 26, noting a significant disconnect between the two. Bitcoin closed April up 12% and is up another 2% on the first day of May. Historically, May is a strong month for Bitcoin, with an average return of 18.4%, following April's 32% average return. This bodes well for June (average 7.5% return) and July (average 8% return), before August and September typically see declines. The speaker advises against "selling in May" if historical patterns repeat. Regarding Bitcoin ETFs, the current week is slightly red, but today's data is not yet included, and BlackRock, for example, can spend hundreds of millions daily. Despite a recent dip, there have been seven strong weeks out of the last eight, suggesting a natural "breather" amidst some macro uncertainty. A significant piece of news is Lyn Alden's assertion that the Bitcoin bottom is in. The speaker notes that Bitcoin is over 33% off its bottom from about 90 days ago, following a rapid "record crash" and a three-month recovery. Alden's reasoning includes the US government's massive deficits, a global trend, which are propping up the stock market. She also highlights that central banks have limited power over inflation, a point the speaker has long agreed with, stating that the Fed can only destroy demand. Alden foresees a shift to a multipolar system, with countries having less impact, and mega-corporations driving the future, with governments integrating with their success. Crucially, Alden believes the Bitcoin bottom is in, which the speaker welcomes, suggesting those waiting for lower prices might be disappointed. The speaker also notes that the "top and bottom indicator" for Bitcoin has moved out of the "blue zone" into "lime green," signaling recovery after a rapid bear market. The continued buying by Michael Saylor and ETF activity are seen as positive signs. Solid ETFs are flat for the week, while Easy ETFs are down, though Tom Lee is buying and the ETH Foundation is selling. Japan, the world's fourth-largest economy, is set to deploy Bitcoin and crypto ETFs, a positive development given the Japanese are "voracious savers." Discussion shifts to real-world assets (RWAs), with the ecosystem reaching an all-time high of $2.5 billion, a 10x increase over the past year, with over a quarter-million holders. Solana dominates RWA action on blockchain at 58%, followed by Ethereum at 40%, and 2% other. BlackRock, initially strong on Ethereum, is reportedly moving towards Solana. The speaker plans a future video on enterprises embracing specific blockchains for RWAs, predicting one winner will take most. Solana is also highlighted as the DeFi chain, with 43-44% of its RWA market cap used in DeFi, compared to only 6.1% for tokenized assets on Ethereum. Eric Trump, speaking at a Bitcoin conference, noted the "unbelievable" suppression of Bitcoin and the US government's 300,000 Bitcoin holdings, hinting at a strategic Bitcoin reserve announcement. He also expressed bewilderment at the current low price despite Middle Eastern mining activity. Important news for Bitcoin and crypto's future includes the Clarity Act, which is ready to advance, with all 13 Republicans poised to vote yes, and Trump indicating he would sign it this summer. Trump also stated the current financial system is outdated and will be replaced by cryptocurrency and tokenization, emphasizing that "everything will be tokenized" for modernization. This could trigger an "alt season" this summer. In markets and AI, Google's market cap surged by $1.4 trillion in 20 trading days, up 13.87% this week. Other winners include Tesla (up nearly 5%), AMD (7%), Intel (21%), and Micron (9.34%). Nvidia and Broadcom are taking a breather, while Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle are down. Oracle is seen as vulnerable to OpenAI. The speaker reiterates the concept that "software ate the world," but now AI, driven by tech and semiconductors, is the new force. The top 10 public companies by market cap, mostly tech and semiconductors, exceed the combined GDPs of the G7 (excluding the US), highlighting their immense scale. Alphabet and Nvidia have comparable market caps, both in the trillions. Demis Hassabis of Google DeepMind issued a "stark warning" that the US is "losing to China" in AI due to China's greater power, population, and hunger. He noted that many leading open-source AI models are now Chinese. Surprisingly, Google, despite its resources, lacks the compute to build two frontier models simultaneously, a capability Grok reportedly has. Hassabis desires a Western open-source AI stack. The US Department of War is partnering with seven leading frontier AI models, including SpaceX (xAI), OpenAI, Google, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon Web Services, viewing AI as "absolutely integral to defense." Grok is lauded for its superior accuracy in complex legal and financial documents, as well as basic medical and research queries. Musk Industries' "cyber cab," based on the Cybertruck, is expected to become ubiquitous, with the unsupervised fleet rapidly expanding. Tesla's secrecy around Optimus 3 is attributed to Chinese competitors' tendency to "copy everything Elon does," from energy to EVs and humanoid robots. Michael Saylor predicts an "explosion in prosperity" driven by a billion robots doing all work and self-driving cars, leading to abundance but also more socialism, universal entitlements, UBI, and excessive entertainment, potentially eroding meaning and discipline. Crucially, Saylor believes people have "roughly 10 years to stake their claim in this new world before automation radically changes the value of work." This "10-year runway" is longer than the speaker anticipated. To stake a claim, one must "own things that are scarce" in a world of abundance, with scarcity exploding in value. STRC (short-term treasury bills) is identified as a key driver for Bitcoin. Approximately 3 million households hold STRC, and institutional investors like BlackRock and VanEck hold it as a significant position. Corporate treasuries are also using STRC for working capital due to its tax-equivalent yield, which is 5x more than traditional banks. Asset managers are packaging STRC into new funds. The speaker dismisses concerns of STRC being a Ponzi scheme, explaining that the yield is paid by Bitcoin's compound annual growth rate. The odds of a recession this year have fallen to 17%, largely due to massive investment in the AI revolution. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway holds $373 billion in cash, earning 3.5%, waiting for a "terrible black swan" to deploy it, which the speaker views as "scared money." Tether is a top 10 buyer of US Treasuries, mitigating sales by countries like China, which is instead buying gold. The speaker reiterates that the first country to use its money printer to buy Bitcoin will win. A list of the most revenue-efficient companies includes Hyperliquid, Tether, pump.fun (Solana chain), Uber, Google, Twitch, Lyft, Meta, Apple, Instagram, Cursor