f**k

Yesterday, Donald Trump indicated he was unlikely to extend the ceasefire and would resume strikes against Iran. However, today, Donald Trump has unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely. This decision comes after Iran reportedly "iced" the United States, refusing to engage in talks. As a result of this extended truce, a blockade will be maintained in the Strait of Hormuz, which is impacting oil markets. Brent oil is now racing towards $100 per barrel, currently at $99.22, and WTI is also up about 3.5%. The clarity expected this week regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not fully materialized. The advisor to Iran's parliament, Galibah, views Trump's ceasefire extension as a ploy to buy time for a surprise strike against Iran, urging Iran to take initiative and prepare for US strikes. This perspective echoes a previous sentiment when the initial ceasefire was announced, with the term "reloading" being used to describe Donald Trump's actions. There's also a suggestion that Donald Trump aims to portray himself as someone who can conclude conflicts faster than anyone else, having recently boasted about the brevity of the Iran conflict and claiming he would have ended previous wars like those in Iraq and Vietnam more quickly. Suspicions about the situation arose this morning when JD Vance did not board a plane for Islamabad, Pakistan, where joint talks were anticipated. Iran had initially denied talks, then confirmed them and announced a delegation, only to subsequently uninvite themselves, refusing to confirm their attendance. Galibah, the advisor to the Iranian parliament, is a key figure in these discussions and was expected to lead a delegation for negotiations. He states that the continuation of the blockade is no different from the bombardment and strikes the United States was implementing. From Iran's perspective, a blockade is equivalent to a strike, causing similar damage, and therefore they are not interested in conversations under such conditions. They imply that this situation must be met with a military response, suggesting that Iran is calling Donald Trump's bluff and is prepared to respond with force to any perceived US aggression. Iran also declared that Trump's ceasefire extension means nothing, asserting that "the losing side cannot dictate the terms." Donald Trump, via Truth Social, has stated that the government of Iran is "seriously fractured" and, at Pakistan's request, he will not resume strikes. This contrasts with previous claims where he suggested a new, more reasonable regime in Iran was close to a deal. The narrative surrounding the Iranian regime appears to be shifting daily. Longer term, this situation is not ideal for the market, which had been pricing in an open Strait of Hormuz and eventual clarity. The commentary from Iran, as reported by wire services, unfortunately suggests a likely resumption of strikes or further damage to ships, which Iranians refer to as piracy. The TASM news agency, associated with the IRGC, has stated that the continuation of the naval blockade amounts to continued hostility. As long as the blockade persists, Iran will not reopen the Strait and, if necessary, will break the blockade by force. This refers to a blockade in the Arabian Sea, outside of drone range, which would require more effort to attack but poses a direct threat to US Navy personnel. Iran further warns that if the US maintains "the shadow of war," the Strait of Hormuz should be considered "effectively fully closed," citing their own blockade around the northern portion of Lorac Island and potential sea mines. The overall implication of this ongoing tension is "higher for longer" oil prices. The longer a resolution is delayed, the more institutions will become concerned, potentially leading to selling pressure that might be bought up in the near term. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded for the rest of the year, it could lead to a recession. The speaker reiterates the belief that oil will remain higher for longer and that software stocks are still cheap, with a potential hardware stock purchase to be announced to course members. The speaker also mentions an extended coupon code, "straight chaos," for the Meet Kevin membership, expiring tonight, which offers access to all courses, trade alerts, live streams, and alpha reports, including a new reinvest course covering various financial topics. A new headline regarding SpaceX's plans for orbital AI data centers and moon/Mars infrastructure is also briefly mentioned, noting that these involve unproven technology and may not be commercially viable, but align with the current hype for their IPO. Finally, the speaker encourages followers on Instagram for personal updates, including a bread recipe and videos of paddleboarding, and mentions posting less frequently on X. He plans to continue research on stocks for potential "buy the dip" opportunities.