Pétrole en Bull Run, la phase d’accélération

This week's market analysis highlights significant movements across various assets, with a particular focus on oil, cryptocurrencies, the dollar, and stock markets. The most notable event is the upward breakout in oil prices, indicating a potential increase in fuel costs in the coming weeks. This surge is attributed to a strong bullish leg observed since the COVID-19 crisis, followed by a consolidation phase and another breakout to the north. While the precise objectives for this new impulsive wave are unclear, a trend-following approach suggests monitoring its behavior. Historically, commodity price surges tend to be rapid and intense, impacting the economy negatively, and there's no indication this pattern will change. Short-term, oil prices could reach alarming levels, though these are unlikely to be sustainable long-term. Bitcoin (BTC) has shown minimal fluctuation, similar to the previous week, experiencing a contraction in volatility. This often precedes a significant movement. Given the current bearish market scenario, a downward move could be severe. However, there's a possibility of recovering resistance and re-entering a range market, though this is not the favored scenario. BTC is currently forming a small triangle, likely a continuation pattern within the bearish market. XRP is also consolidating with reduced volatility, forming a small chartist triangle. This consolidation is seen within a bearish momentum, with potential downward targets. The broader trend suggests a selling flow in cryptocurrencies. If this consolidation breaks to the south, it could trigger a substantial downward movement, potentially invalidating a large long-term chartist triangle and redefining the bearish trend. Similarly, if BTC accelerates southward, Ethereum (ETH) is expected to follow, breaking its own long-term triangle. The US dollar, contrary to discussions about dedollarization, remains a "flight to safety" and "flight to quality" asset. With long-term US government bonds no longer serving this role due to high and potentially rising interest rates, short-term, low-volatility US government bonds and the dollar itself have taken over. The dollar's depth allows it to absorb billions, making it a reassuring currency for global investors during economic stress. A double bottom pattern is forming within a long-term channel spanning over two decades. The current contraction of volatility against a pivot suggests a potentially violent upward movement of about 6% in a few weeks. This aligns with a long-term bullish momentum for the dollar, supported by macroeconomic catalysts. A basket of raw materials, including agricultural, energy, and precious metals, has reached new historical highs. This movement, preceded by a "pressure cooker effect" (volatility contraction against a pivot), has been accelerating. Like oil, these movements are typically swift and impactful rather than prolonged, which is why the "All-Weather Impulse" portfolio is positioned on them. Gold quoted in euros validated a trough last week and is continuing to rebound. This pattern suggests significant volatility, with a potential 25% range between the low and high, leading to a "ping-pong" phase in the coming months. However, this type of healthy consolidation within a bull market is preferred over a rapid, unsustainable "climax run." This development could indicate a continuation of the bull market for several more years or quarters. Similarly, gold quoted in dollars shows a comparable configuration, with a potential trough and lateralization for several months before a new run in late 2026 and 2027. The SP500 is showing a rebound, attempting to recover resistance to turn it into support. However, the NASDAQ has not yet recovered its resistance, indicating that the resistance still holds. This discrepancy suggests that the SP500's movement might be market noise or volatility rather than a clear market trend reversal. For the deep correction signal to be invalidated, all American indices must recover their resistance. Currently, the market is still considered to be in a deep correction, possibly a V-bottom. Donald Trump's statements about hostilities lasting another 2-3 weeks could amplify the ongoing correction. On the European market, the DAX is also trying to recover its resistance. The current scenario appears to be a pullback after a break, testing the broken channel before potentially resuming a downward trend. The C40 has managed to recover a former support turned resistance. High volatility is observed across European markets. The next 3-4 weeks will be crucial to determine if a "Taco" phenomenon (Trump's aggressive stance followed by a quick retreat) occurs, potentially leading to a V-bottom and new market highs. However, this V-bottom scenario is not currently in play. Finally, the "All-Weather Impulse" portfolio has been updated, showing a year-to-date positive performance of +6.66%. The portfolio is largely positioned on one of the two dominant market narratives, which Trump's discourse is expected to bolster. For those seeking real-time position-taking guidance across various assets (Bitcoin, stocks, commodities, gold), access is available to the portfolio's strategy and historical performance during crises, along with two conferences on wealth management and volatility.